Monday, November 28, 2016

Selective stats and spin

Sometimes I think BC gets a little tone deaf to their most passionate fans. For example take the nugget that came out of Saturday that Addazio is "only the second BC coach to lead a team to a bowl in three of his first four seasons." The coach used it in his postgame and the school worked it into social media and game recaps. It is true, but it is also a bit hollow. 

Some of BC's best coaches haven't always coached at BC for four seasons. Since WWII, only seven men have coached at BC four or more consecutive seasons. Also the ever-expanding list of bowls makes most comparisons to the past a perfect "apples and oranges" problem. What if we just took a simpler, and perhaps more objective stat, like Wins and Losses during your first four seasons at BC? Look at the list below. Those are the seven guys I referenced above and their wins and losses during their first four seasons at BC. 
  • Mike Holovak's first four seasons: 20 -- 14 -- 2. Winning Percentage .583
  • Jim Miller's first four seasons: 26 -- 12. Winning Percentage .684
  • Joe Yukica's first four seasons: 28 -- 11. Winning Percentage .717
  • Jack Bicknell's first four seasons:  32 -- 14 -- 1. Winning Percentage .691
  • Tom O'Brien's first four seasons:  23 -- 23. Winning Percentage .500
  • Frank Spaziani's first four seasons: 21 -- 29.  Winning Percentage .420
  • Steve Addazio's first four seasons: 23 -- 27. Winning Percentage .460
Now when compared to these coaches, Addazio's first four years and three bowl appearances don't seem like such a huge coaching accomplishment. He did take over a mess of a program, but I would argue things were as messy for TOB. And I don't think the frustration with Addazio is how he handled the transition from Spaz. It is how he has struggled in Year 3 and Year 4 as the roster becomes his. 

I am not trying to be a complainer or whiner. I am glad we are going bowling. I am glad we won. And I do think Addazio deserves credit for keeping the team together when it could have fallen apart. But I don't think he or the BC staff should be trying to spin this to the fans. We have sat through the blowouts and the losses. We don't want to be told how great things have been. Instead just focus on winning the bowl and closing out the recruiting class. Then hopefully we will see real improvement next season. 


Big Ern said...

All very true. Anyone who has watched this team knows it's true measure.

mod34b said...

As we all expected, Daz is a shameless self promoter who lacks a shred of ctedibility. BB is joining in with the fraudulent claims of succcess.

As for comparison, here is one: Daz is the worst coach in BC history.

But with dumb-dumb Bates giving a 2 year extension and BC inherent cheapness, BC fans are stuck with this fool for at least on more dreary season.

Misery loves BC and BC luvs misery. Imagine if the school could project some confidence?

lbkjj said...

Well said, this spin sounds like Daz hired Kellyann Conway to handle his PR

John said...

I don't appreciate getting blown out of the stadium 4 1/2 times this year. I'm pretty sure BC has never suffered that many blowouts in the same season.

Don't worry coach. We hang on every word. You the man.

EL MIZ said...

you also have to account for the cupcakes Daz scheduled. just looking at conference records, Daz is even worse:

DAZ - 10-22
Spaz - 13-19
TOB - 13-15

John - Mod has posted a great stat of the 10 worst BC losses ever. i believe 3 or 4 have been on Daz's watch.

JBQ said...

I support the comment of "mod34b".

Hario said...

the three out four bowl narrative is nauseating. I wish one reporter had balls to call daz out on it

notfadeaway said...

I think this ignores scheduling and quality of wins. This guy deserves no credit at all. The game mismanagement, lack of an offense and the utter void of any strategy or adjustment is just plain silly at this point. We don't always play to win. Someone tell Daz that Time of Possession doesn't matter if you keep losing.

Bravesbill said...

Hey at least Kellyanne Conway led a successful campaign. Daz is starting to sound more and more like Baghdad Bob, or that idiot writer the athletic department hired from BCI (?) to write their Pravda-like propaganda pieces.

John said...

Lowest scoring team in the ACC by far, and especially in league games. 96 points in 8 games equals 12 points per game.

We are proud of you, coach and love your spin.

12 points per game. You're a winner with that approach for sure.

You can't make this crap up.

Max said...

But we won the time of possession battle (whine), we should win the game. Make it so or I am going to pout on the sideline.
What is wrong at BC refelects what is wrong with the direction of this country. Everyone does a great job. Everyone should be celebrated. I am surprised that BC has not done a reality show yet.
There was a time bowl games meant something and were a reward for effort, sacrifice, determination and dare I say it- having a kick ass football team that is fun to watch, plays hard and does not make excuses. I have said it before- Wagner, UConn, Buffalo, uMass. Don't get in the way of the kitchen staff when you show up at a shitty bowl through the back door.

Max said...

Daz to recruits:
Come to BC and play a somewhat sad reflection of the game of football. We will never beat the elite programs and I have outline my philosophy on this in front of a simpering and lazy media- BUT we have gone to bowl games 75% of the time. You'll just wish you played women's field hockey due to the level of competition

John said...

Fax used the same approach in Winston Salem that he used in Dublin. Get the lead, turn it over to the D and sit on it.

It didn't work in the first game and it nearly didn't work in the last game. Addazio has learned nothing and refuses to move forward with his philosophy, if you can call it that.

More like Peter Principle stubbornness. He's a gem.

I wonder how the offensive players really feel? Hey Mod! Are we the lowest scoring team in the P5? Are we the lowest scoring team, or close to it in FBS?

Nice trajectory, coach.

John said...

Rutgers 86 points in 9 games in the Big 10 (14).

We beat Rutgers and that's about it.

FakeShalomTfree said...

C'mon guys...we've all had to put lipstick on a pig at one time or another in our careers.

If a half-decent recruit actually buys into that spin and comes to BC to play than who cares

CT said...

Off-topic, but since everyone is in agreement in this thread, AJ Dillon has his visit this weekend. Said he's "rock solid" to Michigan, but staying home and building a program has a certain allure, perhaps. Didn't realize he was a Notre Dame legacy.

Hope he enjoys the visit even if his mind is made up and this is a courtesy.

Surely three out of four bowls is a game-changer.

@MrNASAgang said...

I understand where everyone is coming from... but we only had 7 SR starting this yr.. 7.. In my 4 yrs at BC playing from 2006-10 We had RS JR x SRs all over the field. This was/is a very young team.. Yes, it was very hard to watch at times..I mean some of it was embarrassing. It wasn't all on coaching(though the coaching was terrible at times). Sometimes as a player you just have to make a play. We played a Cover 2 style D under Spaz nothing special.. we just made plays.

If we went back and looked at film.. we left a lot of plays on the field this. GT drive down the field by just throwing the ball in the air. And every DB looked lost. I can go on and on but remember it was a lot of youth on the field and at times it showed in a big ways but the youth is talented and I see good things ahead.. next yr should show much improvement.. at least 8 wins if not Daz has to go..

mod34b said...

El Miz... my revised list of the worst BC loses in last 50 years. Daz own 4 of the top 10 worsts. anf he dod it all in 2016. A true loser

In the WW2 years there were some big loses (e.g 0-45 vs Melville PT boats or getting mashed by Brown). These games do not seem comparable to "modern football" games.

So I limited the list to the last 50 years.... if I missed any let me know.

Biggest BC losses (most points) in last 50 years (1966-2016)

1. 2016 VT 0-49 (49 points) Coach Steve Addazio
2. 1992 ND 7-54 (47 points) Coach Tom Caughlin
3. 2016 Clem 10-56 (46 points) Coach Steve Addazio
4. 2000 Mia 6-52 (46 points) Coach Tom O'Brien
5. 2016 Lville 7-52 (45 points) Coach Steve Addazio
6. 1977 Texas 0-44 (44 point) Coach Joe Yukica
7. 2012 FSU 7-51 (44 points) Coach Frank Spaziani
8. 1981 UNC 14-56 (42 points) Coach Jack Bicknell
9. 1988 WVa 19-59 (40 points) Coach Jack Bicknell
10. 2016 FSU 7-45 (38 points) Coach Coach Steve Addazio
10. 1996 VT 7-45 (38 points) Coach Dan Henning
10. 1977 Pitt 7-45 (38 points) Coach Jack Bicknell

Big Jack Krack said...

I like to be optimistic but it's difficult with Addazio.

Our players looked lost on defense during the blowouts and at other critical times. GT never should have won that game in Dublin with better DB play.

I hope this can be turned around.

I hope Landry returns for sure and Kavalec played well all year. Those guys will be missed.

Will we have a more robust offense? Hopefully, but the HC plays favorites and the rotation this year was unproductive.

Addazio/Loeffler would have been better off featuring Willis and Rouse as RB's IMHO. Bring in Hilliman and Jones to spell those guys.

I like all of our players, but I thought we'd see more of Thad Smith, Ben Glines, Drew Barksdale and Nolan Borgersen spreading the field. Jeff Smith, Mike Walker and Charlie Callanan were well covered on their routes, because everyone seemed to know exactly what was coming. The Wildcat became funny. Where were the wheel routes, etc.? Our offensive scheme stunk, in my opinion, and we didn't use our players to their full potential.

Whatever happened to Nosovitch? I guess if you get into the coaches disfavor, you're history. The guy missed one pass, never to be heard from again.

Thanks for your efforts, Mr. Patrick Towles. I'm now looking forward to Darius Wade and Elijah Brown and keeping it alive while the receivers also stay alive and keep moving. Good things happen with an extra second or two.

Receivers - give your QB a chance to find you if things break down a little and they scramble outside the pocket.

Go BC - overcome the out-dated offensive philosophy of HC Addazio. That's your challenge. :-)

Knucklehead said...

Dan Henning, loser.

mod34b said...

Biggest BC losses (most points) in last 50 years (1966-2016)

1. 2016 VT 0-49 (49 points) Coach Steve Addazio
2. 1992 ND 7-54 (47 points) Coach Tom Coughlin
3. 2016 Clem 10-56 (46 points) Coach Steve Addazio
4. 2000 Mia 6-52 (46 points) Coach Tom O'Brien
5. 2016 Lville 7-52 (45 points) Coach Steve Addazio
6. 1977 Texas 0-44 (44 point) Coach Joe Yukica
7. 2012 FSU 7-51 (44 points) Coach Frank Spaziani
8. 1981 UNC 14-56 (42 points) Coach Jack Bicknell
9. 1988 WVa 19-59 (40 points) Coach Jack Bicknell
10. 2016 FSU 7-45 (38 points) Coach Coach Steve Addazio
10. 1996 VT 7-45 (38 points) Coach Dan Henning
10. 1977 Pitt 7-45 (38 points) Coach Joe Yukica

(corrected 1977 coach)

nceaglefan said...

A fish rots from the head down. Our pathetic football and basketball programs are hurting our reputation, applications are still down and I have no doubt this is part of the reason. Athletics are an important part of college life, nothing will change until Leahy goes away. He must go, and we must find a transformative figure to replace him. BC can be great again. Bates, Daz, and Christian are losers. I do not want Leahy involved in finding their replacements, he absolutely cannot. If he stays, both programs will be lost for a long time. Great work by Mod on the above chart, it sums up the Daz legacy, take away the Maine, UMASS, and Buffalos from our schedule and his win percentage would be in the low 300, if that. People do not want to spend money and time on a team that averages 10 points a game. Put a respectable product out there and people will come back to both programs.

bceagle91 said...

BJK, that's assuming Wade doesn't get discouraged and transfer.

Any fan with half a brain knows that the only reasons we're going to 3 bowl games in 4 years are that (1) with 40 bowl games, nearly 2/3 of FBS schools go bowling. Enjoy the participation trophy (2) we play the Little Sisters of the Poor at every opportunity. When you play UMass, Buffalo and Wagner, you're halfway to bowl eligibility simply by showing up. We know better.

John said...

The only thing about transfers is that they don't necessarily work out for the individual. I'd like to see Wade get a chance.

If you are not going pro, it might be better to bite the bullet, do your best and be ready.

But really concentrate on your education and networking and hit the ground running after graduation.

bceagle91 said...

John, I think you're spot on. I don't think Wade would ever regret having a BC degree and the doors it opens post-graduation. Give him a shot here. Nothing really to lose. There's not much sense to having another graduate transfer come in and be mediocre at best. Let's try for some continuity.

Guido said...

I can still remember sitting through an entire game against HOWARD - winning 76-0; think about that one !!!! And that was with reduced times for the 3rd and 4th quarters. OMG - what speech did Addazio impart to his players after that disgrace. I am so pleased that I gave up my tickets !!! My first visit since last year was to a BC hockey game where you watch a young team battling under " A GREAT COACH".

CT said...

I would encourage everyone to read the CFB Cheating article on Bleacherreport (Matt Hayes).

Anonymous said...

The biggest problem is that they should not be going to a bowl. You look at their record and only two wins came against teams that were .500. Rest came against scheduled Division 1 or II teams that were terrible.
Look back at Tom Coughlin and who BC played and their schedule was filled with Michigan State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia. Outside of Notre Dame in 1992, Coughlin's teams either won or only lost by a close or semi close score.
Even Tom O'Brien's teams had to play tough teams and rarely got their doors blown off. This season was so damn tough because it seems once a team got a 10 point lead on BC, that was it, they were done.
I am still hoping BC lets go of Addazio and brings in a top coach.

Geezer eagle said...

Sadly, the Boston media is pro oriented. They simply don't give a crap about BC football. Otherwise they would write editorial after editorial calling for dazoshit's head. Look no further than the AJC. Their sports page is all over Smart and Johnson.

CT said...

Yes GE, and too often the pro teams here get a pass. Oh, there will be hootin' and hollerin' about the Falcons, and currently to a lesser extent the Braves (the Hawks have some wiggle room with the new owners), but the energy for UGA/SEC/ACC is year-round. Atlantans are always waiting for the other shoe to drop in pro sports. Not so in college ball. All about expectations.

Big Jack Krack said...

At BC, our expectations are to compete, and get into the conversation in the league and Top 25 now and then at least.

Our expectation is to not get blown out 4 times plus Syracuse this year.

We can be 4 and 4 in the league and 5 and 3 every couple or 3 years. Maybe get back to the ACCCG some day.

We don't want a weak OOC - but interesting at least.

A BC coach can be successful at 7 and 5, 8 and 4 and 9 and 3 now and again - especially if we compete in the losses against the "elite" teams. They'll know they played tough BC.

We were doing that not too long ago. Oh for the good old days. :-)

Geezer eagle said...

Agreed, soldier boy.