Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

There have been years under certain coaches where BC Football's record wasn't just predictable, it was a certainty. Most notably and recently under Addazio. This year is a total unknown and we should all be thankful. In these times, sports should be a fun, community building escape. When you dislike the coach and the product on the field is boring and predictable, the escape becomes a punishment. 

Jeff Hafley has done everything right so far. It gets a bit harder Saturday. But regardless of what happens, the fact that none of us know what to expect is exciting. Are we going to shock the world? Be a disaster? Probably neither. This is still BC. But I do think we are in for a fun year and here is how it will play out. This serves as my official prediction.

What will happen

at Duke. Win. We go heavy run since Bailey and the Oline are our best assets.

Texas State. Win. I am assuming Jurk emerges as the clear starter after this game.

North Carolina. Loss. At this point I assume the D will still have some rough transition moments.

Pitt. Win. A lot of folks seem to be high I Pitt. I am not. I think we match up well.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this could be a shootout. We just end up on the wrong end.

Georgia Tech. Win. At 4-2, we would start to get some genuine respect. This is right around the time of the Big Ten's debut, so still unranked.

at Clemson. Loss. Hafley knows Clemson well but I still think the talent difference is too big.

at Syracuse. Win. A back to basics game. We pound them again.

Notre Dame. Win. Huge attention getter. The students storm the field in the most socially distant and responsible way possible.

Louisville. Loss. This would be a big letdown, but I don't see us getting through the season without a few hiccups.

at Virginia. Win. A nice way to end a strange regular season.

With this, BC would finish 7-4 (6-4 in ACC play). That record would not be enough for an ACC Championship slot nor a big bowl game. But I think we get invited to a low level bowl (if they happen) like Detroit. I think we win that against a terrible Big Ten team and finish the season 8-4. Probably not enough to be ranked, but a great start to the Hafley era. 

BC finally locks in its 2020 schedule

Football scheduling is complicated under normal seasons. It is uncharted territory in 2020. But after lots of weeks of scrambling, BC finalized its lone non-conference game and will host Texas State on September 26. Yes, Texas State. As for the how and why...

Despite many BC fans finding the "+1" pointless, BC had to schedule someone. The conference owes ESPN a certain amount of inventory and the +1 is part of that deal. The original intent of the +1 was to preserve the traditional non-conference rivalry games. Obviously the SEC didn't find those games as critical, yet the ACC stuck with their model (because of TV money). It wasn't going to be a problem until numerous conferences and independents decided to cancel their fall season.

After Ohio and the MAC shutdown their season, BC's original intent was to schedule someone close, cheap and easy. UConn and UMass were floated most often and made sense. Both scrapped their season. There were plenty of other options, but it suddenly became very expensive and very risky. Good teams wanted the game but at a high price. With Alumni empty, BC wasn't going to pay over the top to have a tough mid-major give us a handful. Lots of people hoped for Army, but Army had its pick of who to play and will actually play 12 games this year.

That left lots of fringe FBS programs as targets. BC landed on Texas State. They were available on our desired date, they are not strong (3-9 last year) and should provide a nice early teaching moment for Hafley.

Will fans be excited about this one? No, but they can't come anyway. This is a made for TV tune up and will hopefully be just what BC needs at the time. Under normal circumstances I would be livid about this type of game. This year it make all the sense in the world and was a good early decision by Pat Kraft. 

Reaction to the 2020 Schedule

The ACC finally released their football schedules Wednesday. Here is BC's:

9/4 -- Syracuse (Friday game)
9/12 -- Ohio
9/19 -- at Kansas
9/26 -- Purdue
10/2 -- Clemson (Friday game)
10/10 -- Louisville
10/22 -- at Virginia Tech (Thursday game)
10/31 -- Holy Cross
11/7 -- at NC State
11/14 -- at Florida State
11/21 -- North Carolina
11/28 -- at Wake Forest

While we knew the opponents prior to Wednesday, the dates and days of the schedule were not known. I would say the fan reaction was mixed. I really liked the set up, but I am not a season ticket holder, so some of the quirks don't impact me. Here are my thoughts:

Things I like:
-- I like starting the season against Syracuse on a Friday during a holiday weekend. While it might hurt attendance a bit, we should get a decent TV slot. I also think starting with a conference game is a great tool to motivate and focus the team throughout the offseason.
-- Thursday night football is not what it once was due to the NFL taking the night as their own. But it is still a spotlight timeslot and we have a long history of playing Virginia Tech on Thursday nights.
-- I am glad they moved the Holy Cross game. Usually we play our FCS opponents earlier in the season. With this being Hafley's first year, I think placing a easy game late in the year will offer him and the team a chance to reboot and reset, especially if things have been rocky.
-- I like avoiding a Thanksgiving weekend home game. There are numerous reasons why it doesn't work. I know BC can't avoid it every year, but any time you can it is god news.

Things I dislike:
-- Three non-Saturday game days. With my personal schedule it actually helps, but in my opinion BC gives up too much in this scenario. Saturday remains the anchor of the college football world. While there are advantages to the occasional odd game, it will always be better to play on a Saturday (for fans and players). TV drives this, but BC needs to put up more of a fight.
-- Lack of November home games. Games in September are great for weather and fans. But we give up any home field advantage the cold New England weather might bring. I also think spreading the games out a bit makes it easier on your season ticket holders.