Great beginning

It was only one game but the Hafley era had a pretty perfect start. After scoring on their first possession, BC struggled a bit in the first half. But solid D kept them ahead. In the second half both BC units exploded and BC ran away with the game.

There will be a lot to digest and discuss in the coming days, but this was fun and promising.

BC-Duke preview

I am still trying to figure out if the unusual circumstances to the start of the Jeff Hafley era is a good thing or bad thing. He lost the chance to have a normal transition and season preparation and the guy who hired him left before Hafley coached his first game. However, because of COVID and this season's unique schedule and playing environment, I think expectations and pressure are minimal. BC could finish with one or two wins and I think most of us would be forgiving. Fortunately I don't think it will get that messy. I see Hafley as someone who will adapt quickly, manage the season well and bring some fun back to BC.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I am selfishly a little disappointed to see the Big Ten and Pac 12 scramble to get back to playing. While I am happy for their players and fans, part of me already started thinking that with a limited number of Power 5 teams playing, BC might actually get into a real bowl. Now we will be back to playing in whatever bowl will have us. 

Three Simple Keys

1. BC needs to run a lot and with the QB. Cignetti will have his own style and brings a better passing system than anything Addazio tried to run. But let's not rush into it this week. Duke showed issues with run stopping last week. BC needs to keep it on the ground and pound away. Assuming Jurkovic starts, I also want to see him in the running game. Based on what we've seen of his limited prior action, his legs should be an advantage.
2. Get Brice out of the pocket. Against the Irish, Brice did not look good when he was flushed. He made some bad decisions and took a few sacks. He is not someone who is going to beat us with his legs. 
3. Manage the game well. This is Jeff Hafley's first game as a head coach. I don't expect everything to be perfect Day 1, but I hope there are no glaring issues with clocks or timeouts. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-3
-- Duke won the last two games in the series
-- Our last three coaches have all won their BC debuts
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
This is the latest that BC has played its opener since 1981.

Scoreboard Watching
There are no divisions this year, so we have to pay attention to the entire ACC. Pitt-Syracuse is a matchup of future opponents. It might tell us something about both teams.

I hope to see...
Jurkovic starting and playing well. BC is being somewhat coy about the QB situation. I appreciate Dennis Grosel and all he did last year. But if we are going to be something special this year, I think we need a dynamic QB.

BC is in trouble if...
We don't get any pressure from the front four. Our linebackers are very good (potentially great). Our DBs are young, but given Hafley's background, I think he can coach them up. The big question is the Defensive Line. They need to be much better than they were last year.

Overall
I think we are entering a special window for BC sports. I think Hafley will be great and it all starts Saturday. This won't be a perfect game. There will be plenty of rust. But I think we pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, Duke 17

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

There have been years under certain coaches where BC Football's record wasn't just predictable, it was a certainty. Most notably and recently under Addazio. This year is a total unknown and we should all be thankful. In these times, sports should be a fun, community building escape. When you dislike the coach and the product on the field is boring and predictable, the escape becomes a punishment. 

Jeff Hafley has done everything right so far. It gets a bit harder Saturday. But regardless of what happens, the fact that none of us know what to expect is exciting. Are we going to shock the world? Be a disaster? Probably neither. This is still BC. But I do think we are in for a fun year and here is how it will play out. This serves as my official prediction.

What will happen

at Duke. Win. We go heavy run since Bailey and the Oline are our best assets.

Texas State. Win. I am assuming Jurk emerges as the clear starter after this game.

North Carolina. Loss. At this point I assume the D will still have some rough transition moments.

Pitt. Win. A lot of folks seem to be high I Pitt. I am not. I think we match up well.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this could be a shootout. We just end up on the wrong end.

Georgia Tech. Win. At 4-2, we would start to get some genuine respect. This is right around the time of the Big Ten's debut, so still unranked.

at Clemson. Loss. Hafley knows Clemson well but I still think the talent difference is too big.

at Syracuse. Win. A back to basics game. We pound them again.

Notre Dame. Win. Huge attention getter. The students storm the field in the most socially distant and responsible way possible.

Louisville. Loss. This would be a big letdown, but I don't see us getting through the season without a few hiccups.

at Virginia. Win. A nice way to end a strange regular season.

With this, BC would finish 7-4 (6-4 in ACC play). That record would not be enough for an ACC Championship slot nor a big bowl game. But I think we get invited to a low level bowl (if they happen) like Detroit. I think we win that against a terrible Big Ten team and finish the season 8-4. Probably not enough to be ranked, but a great start to the Hafley era. 

Season Prediction Part II: Best Case Scenario

As I referenced in Part I, I am very optimistic on the Hafley era. Yet at the end of the day, this is still his first year and he is a first-time head coach. He also inherited a patchwork roster and had his entire transition and training camp disrupted by a global pandemic. There are plenty of unknowns, but here is how it might play out if everything goes right. My actual predictions post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

at Duke. Win. BC looks much improved on D and win with ball control and rushing on offense. A good opener.

Texas State. Win. No scares for this unplanned game. BC handles them and the D looks strong again.

North Carolina. Loss. In their first early test, BC comes up a little short in a back and forth game. Optimism remains high.

Pitt. Win. Maybe I am taking them lightly, but I see us beating Pitt in all three of my scenarios.

at Virginia Tech. Win. The offense is coming around (with Jurk) and get its first big road win. BC now enters the Top 25.

Georgia Tech. Win. This is a game where the OLine wins the day and controls throughout. 

at Clemson. Loss. This game gets a ton of hype in the run up. All the talking heads ask "is this the only team that might beat Clemson?" We don't as we can't outscore them. BC remains ranked.

at Syracuse. Win. I think BC can do what we did last year and run all over them.

Notre Dame. Win. Jurk's revenge. We help spoil their season. Opinions on Hafley move from well liked to beloved.

Louisville. Win. BC is flying high. This is a tough game, but we come out ahead. 

at Virginia. Win. BC stays focused and finishes the season with a nice, no-nonsense win.

This would leave BC at 9-2 (8-2 in ACC play). Who knows what bowls will or will not happen. I also don't know if the Big Ten and Pac 12 will be able to play in all of their respective bowl partnerships. But in this scenario, I don't think BC makes the ACC Championship Game with two conference losses. I still think the ACC will protect their partners first and the bigger bowl will get priority. So, I see us to the Camping World Bowl (Orlando) against one of the bottom rung SEC teams. I think we win giving us an improbable 10 win season and a Top 15 ranking. This makes Hafley the hottest coach in the country (who may get hired away), but it is worth it for this sort of season.

Reaction to the 2020 Schedule

The ACC finally released their football schedules Wednesday. Here is BC's:

9/4 -- Syracuse (Friday game)
9/12 -- Ohio
9/19 -- at Kansas
9/26 -- Purdue
10/2 -- Clemson (Friday game)
10/10 -- Louisville
10/22 -- at Virginia Tech (Thursday game)
10/31 -- Holy Cross
11/7 -- at NC State
11/14 -- at Florida State
11/21 -- North Carolina
11/28 -- at Wake Forest

While we knew the opponents prior to Wednesday, the dates and days of the schedule were not known. I would say the fan reaction was mixed. I really liked the set up, but I am not a season ticket holder, so some of the quirks don't impact me. Here are my thoughts:

Things I like:
-- I like starting the season against Syracuse on a Friday during a holiday weekend. While it might hurt attendance a bit, we should get a decent TV slot. I also think starting with a conference game is a great tool to motivate and focus the team throughout the offseason.
-- Thursday night football is not what it once was due to the NFL taking the night as their own. But it is still a spotlight timeslot and we have a long history of playing Virginia Tech on Thursday nights.
-- I am glad they moved the Holy Cross game. Usually we play our FCS opponents earlier in the season. With this being Hafley's first year, I think placing a easy game late in the year will offer him and the team a chance to reboot and reset, especially if things have been rocky.
-- I like avoiding a Thanksgiving weekend home game. There are numerous reasons why it doesn't work. I know BC can't avoid it every year, but any time you can it is god news.

Things I dislike:
-- Three non-Saturday game days. With my personal schedule it actually helps, but in my opinion BC gives up too much in this scenario. Saturday remains the anchor of the college football world. While there are advantages to the occasional odd game, it will always be better to play on a Saturday (for fans and players). TV drives this, but BC needs to put up more of a fight.
-- Lack of November home games. Games in September are great for weather and fans. But we give up any home field advantage the cold New England weather might bring. I also think spreading the games out a bit makes it easier on your season ticket holders.