Young rosters and where BC stands in the ACC

Addazio is quick to remind everyone how young this BC team is. But it seems like other ACC coaches have the same issue. When Dave Doreen brought it up again at the ACC Media Day, ACCSports.com decided to look at all the rosters in the ACC. It turns out that everyone is young.

The nature of college football means that you're always going to have more underclassmen than juniors and seniors. First there is the redshirt aspect. That really turns your roster into three classes (redshirts, freshmen and sophomores) vs two (juniors and seniors). Then there is the inevitable attrition through injuries, grades and transfers that shrinks a class as it advances through college. For every class like BC's 2007 group (17 redshirt seniors), there will be plenty much smaller than that. But on most rosters and even the best programs, you need to win with your underclassmen.

But even though ever team is young, some are younger than others. That's where BC's 2016 roster comes in. Using ACCSports' data, BC is the third youngest team in the conference behind Wake and NC State. 67.5% of the roster are classified as underclassmen.

So when Addazio says the team is young, he's right. But that doesn't mean that BC's unique nor does it mean that we cannot win this year.

Trying to justify my hypocritical take on roster management

I've been called out and my critic is probably right. For years I jabbed at Spaz for not using all of his scholarships. Spaz was an easy bunching bag, especially when it came to roster management. My theory was that even the least talented prospect we could find still had value over not using a scholarship. Yet as attrition grows under Addazio, I am dismissing the loss of talent and happy that Addazio can bring in more of his own guys. This leaves me to explain why I am against "banking" scholarships, but all for attrition.

Fundamentally the best case scenario for attrition is immediately after the season. When a player leaves after signing day, Addazio doesn't have the chance to fill the spot before games begin. Essentially BC plays a man down, just like we did when banking scholarships. What's happening now is not the best case scenario, but it does have some benefit. 

Losing players is not a good thing. Though not much was expected of Craan, Meredith or Ricci, all probably would have played this year. Now they won't and a thin team is left thinner. Plus you never know when things might click for a player. One or all of those three could have been this season's late bloomer. But we will never know this since all are gone. But the reason losing a player is still better than not bringing in a player, is the benefit it has on the team's culture. 

When a new coach comes in he is trying to get guys to buy into his program. BC has a long road back and this season might be rough. If the team does struggle, you want every player around still believing. Still fighting. A guy who doesn't buy in yet hangs around might influence those guys on the fence about football or Addazio. If the recent departures didn't want to be here, BC was smart to encourage them to leave. 

I don't blame the guys who left. College football can be a fruitless grind. It can be even worse if you are losing and no one believes in you. Playing without 85 scholarships is not ideal, but at least in Addazio's case it is about rebuilding and not mismanagement. 

What is Spaz leaving in the cupboard?

We won't know Spaz's fate until the new AD is in place, but I think most can agree Spaz will not be coaching BC five years from now. That prediction is not based on wins and losses. It is simply about age. Spaz must know this too. That's why I am glad he is still keeping some of our current true freshman on the sidelines, preserving their fifth year of eligibility. Obviously under pressure, Spaz could play everyone with the hope that one of the guys might make a difference. But he doesn't seem to be in a full "win now" mode yet.

Last year's recruiting class consisted of 17 players. Eight have yet to play and look like they are headed towards redshirts. Those eight are Jim Cashman,  George Craan, Win Homer, Malachi Moore, Mike Strizak, Frank Taylor, Nigel Matthews, and Joel Karim Zoungrana. Now preserving their eligibility is not Spaz simply looking out for their best interests or wanting to help his successor. Spaz may have good intentions, but most of the redshirts are lineman who are physically not developed enough to play the positions for which they were recruited. Others like Craan have been battling injury and some like Matthews and Strizak would break the depth chart at their positions.

Eight players might not mean much and it is unlikely that all will hang around for five years. But at least it is one less excuse for the 2015 and 2016 seasons (of course Spaz used the excuse for himself when talking to Avidon). The key for BC's future success is to get back to redshirting the majority of the class. I know that concept is becoming dated as players arrive on campus more mature and developed, but that added time can still be advantageous to a program like BC. A fifth year, 23-year-old marginal recruit is always going to be more valuable than he was as a true freshman. We just need a head coach who sees himself at BC long enough to invest in their and BC's future.

One bad unknown recruit doesn't spoil the whole roster

When BC picked up a commitment from another player off our radar, the Spaz critics came out in force. They fear that by loading up on lower-level talent, Spaz is leaving his replacement with huge roster issues. I don't think it will be a problem. While we will lack some depth and leadership, I think a new coach will look at the inherited roster as a chance to get his own players into his system that much faster. Regardless of how Spaz's final recruiting class comes together, there will be plenty of open scholarships in the next three years.

Here are some things to consider...

1. Spaz's first full class uses up their five years in time for the new coach's first full class. They were originally 21 scholarships. Because some played as true freshman, their churn will be up even faster. But 21 is still a close enough place holder for a baseline for the class. For purposes of this exercise, call the 21 spots Class 1 for the new coach.

2. Spaz's second full class was 23 scholarships. By the same churn rate, every player from this class should open up a recruiting slot in our new coach's second full class. For purposes of this exercise, call the 23 spots Class 2 for the new coach.

3. Spaz has underrecruited each year and backfilled with scholarships to walkons. Fortunately most of those walkons were and are upper classmen. Right now there are four scholarships that fall into this category. Those extra spots will probably be used in this transitional class, but even if they are spread out, that still provide plenty of flexibility for the new coach.

4. A coaching change will mean accelerated attrition. This number is less predictable put on average BC loses five players over the course of a football season to some sort of attrition (permanent injury, transfer out or kicked off of the team). Assuming we get to six annually for the first two years (because of the coaching change), that once again gives the new coach plenty of flexibility to shape his recruiting classes.

5. The NCAA allows for 85 scholarships for football and only 25 at most per recruiting class. 

6. According to the recruiting sites, BC plans on keeping this Transitional Class small and will only add a few more players. For purposes of this exercise, estimate it at 21 commitments.

Transitional Class: 21 commitments

Class 1: 21 commitments

Class 2: 23 commitments

Walkons graduating out of our system: 4

Estimated attrition over the first three seasons: 18

Even in the worst case scenario where our new coach comes in and dislikes nearly all of Spaz's incoming recruits, this one class won't be a long-term issue. And even if someone like Marquis Little is lacking ACC talent, he is just one player. At worst all of these recruits in the transitional class are just depth and warm bodies. By Year 3 more than half of the players on the roster will be the new coach's. If he's aggressive in his roster management, he could have as many as 50 players in his first two full classes. That's a lot of talent and a reminder of how quickly rosters can turn in college football.  

I know that the classes don't line up perfectly as they graduate but the point of this was to demonstrate how the rosters churn and anticipate the flexibility the new coach should have. We will be young in his third year, but we will be his team.

Spaz's good intentions are all wrong and other links

(This is going to sound like I am raining on some hard-working kids parade. That's not my intent.) As the Heights reported, Spaz awarded scholarships to Mike Javorski and Ted Davenport. That is great news for those guys and I am happy for them and their families. Getting a BC scholarship is a huge honor and provides a huge financial relief. But one of the problems with Spaz is his roster management. The reason he constantly has available scholarships every August is because he can't find enough good talent that want to  play football in the ACC and get a free education!!! Every year Spaz wastes a huge resource! He has a lottery ticket that no one wants to collect. That is mismanagement. I know Javorski and Davenport worked hard and this is no slight to them. But when their coach complains in two weeks that we have no talent at Running back or injuries have hurt us on the Line, remember that he doesn't use every scholarship. We could have brought in three or more Penn State players, but good ol' Spaz wasn't going to chase those kids! People think my complaints with Spaz are because of the losing or the interviews. That's only part of it. The guy is not capable of running a BCS program. I am glad this won't be our problem much longer. I hope Javorski and Davenport have great seasons!

Hoffses has a very good write up on the last scrimmage. It looks like we've settled into an Oline of Cleary, White, Gallik, Vardaro and Wetzel. Let's hope they play well and we roll out the same crew all season long.

BC finalized their game schedule for Spain and the ACC released the basketball schedule.

The ACC coaches voted BC 4th in their preseason poll.

DominiqueWilliams is mentoring younger players at Brockton.

Women's Ice Hockey selected their captains.

Roster updates and other links

BC released the latest football roster. Bios for all the new coaches are included. On the player front the news is really only in the omissions and new positions. John Elliot and Chris Hayden-Martin are off due to injury (and likely done as football players). No word on what happened to Jerry Kelly. The attrition rate is a reminder of why I don't like the practice of banking scholarships.

McGovern spoke with HD. He repeats what we know: it's Herzy and the youngsters.

The baseball game against NC State was postponed. There will be a double header Saturday.

The BCI guys posted this already but for those who missed it, Cablevision will be adding ESPN U on more of their systems. I get the U through DirecTV now and although the broadcasts have a low rent feel, it is nice to have all the games on the big screen.

What to do with the surplus of defensive backs?

When practices restart Thursday they will serve two purposes. The primary is bowl preparation. The secondary is preparing for next season. One of the questions for the offseason is what to do with all the defensive backs. BC has a very deep, young and talented group of defensive backs. The drawback of having a deep position is that they cannot all be on the field at the same time. With that in mind, and based on pure speculation, I am going to look at the group and see who might be moved to another position of need.

Assumptions:
1. I am not focusing on safety vs cornerback. Some recent guys have played both (Anam most recently) and some of the current probably could also play both (Gause, Fox)
2. We will probably bring in at least two more DBs (bringing the potential total to 17 on the roster).


Not going anywhere
The following guys are unlikely to move since they’ve established themselves as good contributors and don’t have another position that would make as much sense.
-- Donnie Fletcher
-- DeLeon Gause
-- Roderick Rollins

Linebacker?
The Akins experiment moved him to corner for his senior year. Over his career he showed the advantage of having a fast, coverage LB in Spaz’s scheme. Could these guys also moonlight with McGovern's guys?
-- Dan Mulrooney
-- Wes Davis
-- Stephen Atkinson
-- Marcellus Bowman
-- Okechukwu Okoroha
-- Dominick LeGrande
-- Chris Hayden-Martin

How are his hands?
Although we are deep in the secondary, we are probably going to need some pass catchers shortly. These guys could be good in open space.
-- Donte Elliott
-- Ugo Okpara
-- Chris Fox
-- Isaac Johnson

Running Back?
Running Back might be a tough position sell since many would see Harris and Haden on the depth chart and wonder if they’d ever see the field. Mulrooney and Smith have already had a go around in the backfield and may be used their again.
-- Dan Mulrooney
-- Razzie Smith (assuming he returns for a fifth year)
-- Isaac Johnson

This is all just spitballin' so feel free to leave your own ideas in the comments section.

Musical Chairs at Running Back and other links

The notes section in this Herald article updated the ever-changing running back situation. Razzie Smith's move to Running Back looks more permanent, Mulrooney is nursing a bad back and Codi Boek has been moved to Running Back. Smith is not a surprise. The Boek move has more implications. It means that Dominique Davis is likely successor to Crane next year at QB and that the true freshmen running backs might not be ready. Our once barren backfield is now crowded with Jeff Smith, Razzie Smith, Boek, Haden, Mulrooney, Harris and Kelly. Haden is playing for sure. Jeff Smith will play if he stays healthy. But with the new depth, there is less of a need to use Harris and Kelly. It should be interesting to see how this plays out.

Here is another practice update from BC that includes pictures.

Jamie Silva is fighting for a roster spot in Indy.

The Globe didn't have any football news Thursday, but they did have a nice feature on BC soccer player Steve Hepburn