BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16

BC-Mizzou preview

Everyone's excited about BC. We are ranked for the first time in six years. O'Brien is getting a ton of positive press. The SuperFan shirts are back. But nothing is ever easy or simple. BC is on the road to take on the best Mizzou team in years and heavy underdogs. Yet there is nothing to lose. A month ago, this game seemed like certain doom. Now we have hope.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In college sports -- where there are so many teams -- you tend to lose perspective on how other programs are doing and their fans feel about their program. Take Pitt for example. They just fired their AD. I was sort of surprised because despite having a down football year last season, things have generally been successful and competitive in Football and Basketball for the Panthers the last few years. But it speaks to how fans frustration can build up over time and how the big donors don't always want to hear from the same voice year after year.

Three Simple Keys

1. No bad INTS from TC. I think Mizzou is going to try to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw. If they do, he just needs to be smart and take the easy throws. 

2. Control the clock. It should be a very similar approach to the FSU game. Long drives where our OLine wears on them. 

3. Clean up the Special Teams. They still haven't been crisp yet. No shank punts. No penalties. Good coverage. 

Gambling Notes:
-- BC is 18-24-1 vs SEC schools

-- Mizzou is 18-31-3 vs ACC schools

-- Drinkwitz is 22-7 at home while at Mizzou

The current spread is BC+15.5

Factoid
BC Football has only played in the state of Missouri once. 1926 vs St. Louis University in St. Louis.

Scoreboard Watching

Memphis-Florida State will be interesting. Right now our win against the 'Noles feels big. But if they keep losing and look like a Paper Tiger, it will take a bit of the shine off of our start.

BC is in trouble if...this becomes a shootout. I don't think we have the depth, speed or weapons if the winning score needs to be in the high 30s or 40s.

I hope to see...continued pressure on the QB. If we are getting pressure up front, good things will happen. 

Bottom Line
This is going to take a perfect game, but I have faith. I think it will feel a lot like FSU. We will grind it out, keep mistake to a minimum and get a few key turnovers.

Final Score: BC 31, Mizzou 24

BC-Duquesne preview

This is perfect scheduling. Anything after last week was going to be a natural letdown, but playing Duquesne at home is nearly a sure thing. We saw last year that we can't take an FCS team lightly. But our natural playing style -- running between the tackles -- will help us avoid the scare we got last year from Holy Cross. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

After the FSU game I kept wondering what Jeff Hafley thought of it all. These were his guys and even some of his coaches. I hope he was happy and I hope he feels he is in the right place. I am not being harsh when I say that I don't know if we would have won that game if he were still in charge. The mood of the team certainly would have been different and I don't know if the Defense would have been as sound. Maybe he will learn from his time at BC and be a better head coach if he gets a second chance. Or maybe he is happy as a DC. Who knows? For his sake, I hope he is in a good place. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. No QB injuries. That is my biggest fear of the whole weekend. We just need TC to get some reps, make some plays and stay healthy.

2. Win without showing anything new on film. Just keep it simple and don't do anything that might give Mizzou and Michigan State any ideas.

3. Play a little cleaner on Special Teams. Our returns and our punt coverage was a little sloppy last week. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC has won 34 straight against FCS opponents

-- BC has never played Duquesne

-- BC last played an NEC team in 2016

There is currently no line on the game

Factoid

BC is 3-2 following wins against Florida State.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested to see how Syracuse and Georgia Tech match up. The Yellow Jackets are a run first team and if they can move the ball against the Orange, I assume we will too.

BC is in trouble if...if we can't get the backups playing time in the second half. I don't think it means we will lose, but it will mean we let a bad team hang around.

I hope to see...an enthusiastic home crowd. It is always tough filling Alumni for an FCS game, but it should be an easy win and the first time to see BOB coach in Alumni. Show up and make some noise.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. No one needs to get hurt. Just keep it simple and sound. 

Final Score: BC 38, Duquesne 7

Bill O'Brien era opens with a bang

During the game, I tweeted a bunch, but here are some post-game thoughts on BC's upset of Florida State. 

BOB went on the road against a ranked team looking to bounce back and punched them in the mouth. BC purposely came out and dominated the clock and the game with its OLine. It was a thing of beauty and a reminder of so many great BC teams of the past. And I know it is only Week 1, but there was a preparedness and calmness to the gameplan and the game management that we haven't seen in a long, long time. Despite very humid conditions and plenty of mistakes, BOB was composed on the sidelines and didn't do anything either too stupid or too conservative. It was just right. We've seen many BC coaches struggle to get that first win over a ranked opponent. BOB did it in game 1. 

If you had told me we would win in Tallahassee, I would have predicted a huge game from Castellanos. He was good, but not his best...and we still won. That's a testament to the OLine, the running backs and the entire D.

The D looked transformed. There is not a lot of new talent, so this is a case of "coaching them up." They were much more aggressive than any unit Hafley produced. They also seemed very comfortable in the new scheme considering it is Week 1. They showed lots of different looks and didn't have many mental mistakes. 

There is a lot of football to play and I am sure we will have some rough moments, but for the first time in a long time it doesn't feel like there is a ceiling on what BC can do. 

BC-FSU preview

A new coach. A new season. A new era. I am all about the fresh start. I have faith in O'Brien in the long-term, but I don't know what to expect for this season. Will he get more out of the current talent than Hafley and his crew did? Will he build the offense to Castellanos' strengths or force him into a scheme that calls on him to pass a lot? We don't know. But I do have faith. I think he will overachieve this year and in the long run at BC. I think Castellanos is a special talent and a good coach will make something special happen with him. And it all starts Monday night.

My season predictions (I will probably always predict that BC will win in my game previews.)

at FSU. W
Duquesne. W
at Mizzou. L
Michigan St. W
Western Kentucky. W
at UVA. W
at Virginia Tech. L
Louisville. L
Syracuse. W
at SMU. W
UNC. L
Pitt. W

8-4 (5-3 in ACC play). It would be a huge season and get us to a mid range ACC bowl. We win that and go into the Year 2 with a lot of momentum. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The tragedy of the Gaudreau brothers reached well beyond BC and hockey news. I don't have anything new or insightful to say. I can't imagine what the family is going through and I know the BC Hockey community is still in shock. I will pray for the family. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stick with the run. Our gameplan should be similar to what Georgia Tech did with the 'Noles in Ireland. We need to keep pounding the ball, wear them down and hope for a few game breakers.
2. Don't allow explosive plays in the passing game. DJ will check down as long as we are disciplined in our coverage. 
3. Win the turnover battle. We are going to need a little luck and we need to be careful.

Gambling Notes
-- FSU leads the series 15-5
-- FSU has won five in a row
-- BC hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2008
The current line is BC+16.5

Factoid
A BC coach hasn't lost his BC debut since TOB in 1997.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Ohio. The Orange have a new coach too and went in an entirely different direction in their hiring process. It will be interesting to see how Brown does there and if his recruiting lives up to the media hype.

BC is in trouble...if we can't get to the QB. What was so frustrating about the Hafley era is that we never developed a dynamic defense. FSU won't tell us everything, but we will need to create pressure if we want to beat top teams.

I hope to see...a huge game from Castellanos. Last year was fun. This year could be special. We will have a national stage on Monday night. It is a great chance for TC to get the attention of the college football world. 

Bottom Line
I think we match up well against FSU and getting them off of a tough loss overseas is perfect. Their confidence is faltering. If we show up and dominate the lines, I think the 'Noles will break mentally. I think we work them over and pull away late.
Final Score: BC 31, FSU 17

Learn more about Bill O'Brien's coaching techniques and philosophies

Yet another difference in hiring Bill O'Brien vs a first time head coach is that he has been prominently involved in numerous coaching clinics over the years. The following series dates back to his Penn State days but also touches on his time with New England, Houston and Alabama. They are very insightful into his personality and how he will run an offense, a coaching staff and work with his players.

It is also clear that he likes empty set formations a lot. That is very exciting with Castellanos, especially if TC has the green light to run if no one is spying him. 

My only concern is that there a lots of reads for the QB and the WRs...certainly more than last year. They will either have to teach a lot in the offseason or simplify he offense. 

Thoughts on O'Brien's introductory press conference

 

I've blogged through five new Head Football Coaches' introductory press conferences. I know this doesn't really mean much beyond the respective coach's introduction to BC. But given that, here are a series of thoughts...

1. If we are going by energy and vibes, this was the most even keeled and professional. O'Brien set the right tone. He didn't make over the top promises. He didn't try to sell himself. He wasn't goofy or forced. He showed the right deference to Father Leahy and the people who hired him. Blake James didn't turn it into his show either. And he didn't have to sell the hire or convince BC fans that this was the right choice. We all know it was. 

2. Based on his coaching style and temperament, I don't know O'Brien is trying to be "likable" but there were certainly some charming moments in the press conference. He had his family and extended family, plus numerous friends and former players in attendance and acknowledged many of them. He rattled off so many connections to local towns that he would clearly clean up on SNL's old "What’s the Best Way" sketch. 

3. He mentioned Reggie Terry multiple times and how helpful he has been in the transition. That's good to hear and know. Terry was brought in by Addazio and easily could have been an "Addazio guy." Instead he has stayed on and become a "BC guy" and is now working with his third head coach. Those people -- who get BC and have institutional knowledge -- are invaluable to a new coach who has a lot coming at him. Father Jack was also mentioned. Though his role is very different from Terry's, he also has a long connection to BC football and first hand perspective on different BC coaches. I hope O'Brien leverages that experience as appropriate.

4. This was probably the first BC new coach press conference that didn't mention Jerry York.

5. O'Brien didn't provide many specifics on schemes or staff. He said that will come later. He also didn't hesitate to address (nor whine) about the changing dynamics of college football. He said you have to embrace it and work. Easier said than done, but definitely a good answer.

A new era

Identities are important...especially for institutions. Institutions need their identities, so as times and people change, the identity carries on and new people can grasp on to something. It provides security and trust. Changing that identity is risky and members of institutions are naturally risk averse. They wouldn't hold onto institutions if they wanted something new. BC established a clear identity for its football program for years. Coaches were part of that identity and most of our hires over the last 40 years have been assistants looking for their shot or smaller college guys looking to move up. Bill O'Brien doesn't fit either mold. He won at a big college program and in the NFL. And now he is the most accomplished Football coach BC has ever hired. 

BC athletic director Blake James deserves the majority of the credit for hiring O'Brien. Too many ADs in the past would just keep to the mold. Keep to the budget. Keep control. James hired an established leader with instant credibility and someone who is likely to succeed. Ever since Coughlin left, we've had a series of mediocre and bad coaches. Most of those guys had some level of success. In theory if they could stumble into six wins and a bowl game, the ceiling for BOB should be much higher. 

One of the selling points to some of the past unknowns is that we might be hiring the next Tom Coughlin, the next Hall of Famer, a guy who is going to unlock something special at BC. Because they were blank slates, we rationalized it to ourselves. "Maybe he is special." Reality would kick in along the way. Sometimes pretty quickly. With Bill O'Brien we don't have to strain to believe. We don't have to fool ourselves. We know he can do it because he has done it before. 

I know it may not work. It is never as simple as "just go hire the biggest name." For this to be special, BOB will have to adjust, he will have to find the right people (staff and players) and BC will have to get a little lucky. But we are trying something different and that is a good thing. We are stepping out of our place in the College Football ecosystem. We are changing our identity.  

It is a new beginning at BC and 2024 is already one of the most important years in BC Football and it is only February. Let's go!

Don't fall for the BC coaching narrative

Every time BC has a coaching change you hear and read about how bad the BC job is, how hard it is to win at BC and how it is a career killer. With Jeff Hafley's departure, the same canards are back. But they are not true. Let's break it down.

BC is a bad job
Rarely when someone calls BC a bad job, do they ever really explain why. As I say ad nauseam, this is a P4 job. There are only so many of them and hundreds of guys who want their shot. Does BC have challenges? Of course. All jobs do. At BC you have a shallow recruiting base, you fight for attention in a big city, you don't have rubber stamp admissions, and you won't be the highest paid coach in your league. Unless you catch lightning in a bottle or you stay and build something incredible, you won't win a National Championship at BC.

However, those challenges are more than offset by some of the charm and benefits of BC. First the expectations are low. You will be given time to succeed (average tenure since Bick is 5.3 years). You will be able to live in the greater Boston area and you and your family will not be bothered living your daily lives. The recruiting is niche and you will get to work with a certain type of player that most of these coaches seem to appreciate.

Hard to win at BC?
This argument is the least subjective. Since the DIA-DIAA split there have been three BC coaches who had college football head coaching experience outside of BC. All of them won more and at a better winning percentage at BC.

Jack Bicknell
Win Pct at outside of BC (college only) -- .342
Win Pct at BC -- .517

Tom O'Brien
Win Pct outside of BC -- .533
Win Pct at BC -- .625

Steve Addazio
Win Pct outside of BC -- .425
Win Pct at BC -- .500

Career Killer
Once again, this seems very subjective, if you go case-by-case, it is hard to pin much blame on the BC job. Some guys had great opportunities and a few never came close to the level again. A recurring theme for many is that BC was the highpoint of their careers, not some death trap. Here is the post-BC career of all of our coaches since the DIA-DIAA split.

Jack Bicknell: After a 10 year run at BC, Bicknell served as one of the original head coaches in the World League. He stayed on as the league morphed into NFL Europe and coached another 14 years. He is the winningest coach in the league's history.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes, but it wasn't over.

Tom Coughlin: He left BC to become the first GM and Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had a very good run there. Later, he joined the New York Giants and won two Super Bowls in New York. He will be in the Hall of Fame one day.
Did his career peak at BC? Are you kidding me? If anything BC gave him the shot to stand out from the hundreds of other assistants who wanted NFL jobs.

Dan Henning: After getting fired at BC, Henning went back to his comfort zone -- calling plays in the NFL. In his final years coaching, he was the OC in Buffalo, with the Jets, the Panthers and Dolphins.
Did his career peak at BC? No. We got him on the downside. He had already been part of multiple Super Bowls under Joe Gibbs and had been a head coach in the NFL twice.

Tom O'Brien: He left for NC State and many assumed that unshackled by BC's limitations, he would take NC State to the next level. He didn't.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. NC State paid more, but he never had the level of success he had at BC.

Jeff Jagodzinski: He had so much success at BC that the NFL came calling. That interview with the Jets and his game of chicken with Gene cost him his job at the Heights.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. He became a football vagabond after BC.

Frank Spaziani: After getting fired, Spaz went home and happily let BC pay him not to work. When his buyout expired, he went to New Mexico State for a few more years of assistant work.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. No one expected Spaz to ever be a head coach until Gene tapped him to replace Jags.

Steve Addazio: Immediately after getting fired, Addazio landed the Colorado State job. CSU's quick hiring and firing of Addazio proved how misguided the perception is around BC. CSU saw a .500 record and had Urban Meyer telling them that going .500 at BC was a miracle. We all know how that worked out for them.
Did his career peak at BC? Yes. He had other head coaching jobs, but BC was his most lucrative and successful.  

Jeff Hafley: Left of his own volition. This is still so fresh that you can't make any comments about his post-BC career.
Did his career peak at BC? TBD

Jeff Hafley: the perfect fit that never really fit

 

The Jeff Hafley era is over. It ended like most of his tenure -- in an unpredictable manner. He is leaving BC to take a Defensive Coordinator role with the Green Bay Packers. Four years ago that would have been a step back. (Jags left a Green Bay coordinator role to take the head job at BC.) Now with exploding salaries in both levels and the job descriptions changing daily, it might not be. Hafley plugs into a role and team that will likely lead him to an NFL head job within four years. That wasn't going to happen at BC. He puts himself and his family in a better position. I don't begrudge him at all. Plus whatever he had hoped to build and whatever we thought we would see at BC never came together. World, industry and departmental changes probably made every day seem Sisyphean.

Since Hafley took the job, he is on his third Athletic Director. He spent a whole year recruiting and coaching in COVID. Then the NIL hit and then the portal hit. Plus the ACC expanded and is in the middle of a lawsuit against one of its flagship programs. None of those sweeping changes lend themselves to building or shaping a program in your own vision. Instead it is just putting out one fire after the next.

Hafley's challenges were not all external. His staffs have been mediocre to poor. His coordinators have been bad. His reputation as a great talent evaluator never really showed itself with his BC rosters. His gameday coaching and decision making was uneven. He eliminated the culture of fear and built relationship with players, but never really won their respect. (I had a guy who played under Addazio recently tell me he barely even knew Addazio but he was at BC to compete and didn't worry about the relationships. The idea of Hafley being everyone's friend seemed unnecessary to this same player.)

In the end Hafley did BC a favor by leaving. If his heart wasn't in it, then a lame duck season would have been painful for everyone. He saved BC money by not having to fire him and now someone who knows what this job entails can take on the challenge. Good luck and thanks (I guess). I still like Hafley, but do think this is best for everyone. 

BC-SMU preview

It should come as no surprise that in the lead up to the Bowl game, Hafley is saying all the right things. He always does. His mood seems good and the players speaking with the media seem to be buying in. BC's success in the transfer portal confirms that their message is working and they are committed to getting better. But what about the actual game? Can BC pull off the upset right down the street at Fenway? BC probably deserves to be an underdog, but this game is not unwinnable. I would love to see that with a month to prepare and with a maturing team, Hafley is able to beat a ranked team in a quasi-home game.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Hafley's bet on the Transfer Portal solves one problem: improving the roster. Even it all the guys don't turn out to be super stars, it seems pretty safe that the talent coming in is greater than the talent leaving. But all our issues are not talent. BC lost games -- Pitt and NIU -- when we made very questionable play calls. Until he gets things rolling, Hafley is unlikely to bring in ace coordinators, so it is on him to get more involved and intervene in-game it things are not working. Hafley seems willing to adjust. Will he do it well enough before his time runs out?

Three Simple Keys
1. Control the clock. SMU has an explosive offense. We won't be able to hang in a shootout. If we want to win, we need to run and keep possession. 

2. Turnovers. When things were rolling midseason, BC was winning the turnover battle. We need that sort of luck this week.

3. Contain the explosive plays. Even bad teams had big plays against us. It was usually a mix of missed tackles, lack of speed and being in the wrong position. This extra bowl time should be a reset and have the guys focused on what they need to do and to make better plays.

Gambling Notes
-- SMU leads the series 1-0
-- Hafley is 1-11 vs ranked teams
-- SMU has lost three straight bowl games

The current line is BC+10

Factoid
BC and SMU have a lot in common when it comes to recent bowl games. Like BC, they qualified for bowls in 2020 and 2021 with nothing to show for it. Both games were cancelled. 

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is always must see TV for me. Throw in these two programs and make it a playoff and it becomes a game I won't miss. 

BC is in trouble if...nothing has changed. Hafley promised a few wrinkles and a few new faces. If none of it is noticeable, then why did he bother?

I hope to see...a complete game from TC. Hafley's future is in TC's hands. If he is going to be more than a runner, it better start showing soon. This would be a perfect time to take that next step.

Bottom Line
It is a long shot, but I think BC can do it. We just need to control the pace and pound away and TC needs to make a few things happen.
Final Score: BC 24, SMU 14

BC-Miami preview

The most interesting reaction to last week's loss was from the neutral parties. We know how the diehards feel and even the casual BC fans. But due to playing during a national spotlight, you saw more of the regular football fans and football media paying attention to BC and Hafley for the first time this season. And while not a consensus, many were very critical. BC should have won that game and should be better than getting by with six wins. That is why I said that game was so important. This one is too. Hafley needs to get over the hump. Injuries, some of the inherent challenges at BC, bad luck...none of it matters. Every team has similar handicaps. It is up to him to overcome those. Lots of guys can win six games at BC. We've proven that over the past 30 years. We need someone who can do more. The Miami game is a chance to do more. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Syracuse fires Dino Babers and many of Holy Cross' best players enter the portal. Seems more than coincidental. Perhaps the Chesney to the Orange thing is a done deal and the media are ignoring it to promote their preferred candidates. I would be disappointed if Chesney does end up at Syracuse because I think he will do well there. I think he would do well at BC. There is no foolproof path to football coaching success, but I do think winning at every stop is a great sign. While a promoted coordinator has to adjust to hiring, leading, game management, someone who has been a head coach at a lower level has done all those things before (presumably successfully). For a guy like Chesney the adjustment to a higher level is instead about finding the right players and I think in the portal era that is less about selling to high schoolers and more about piecing your roster together on an annual basis.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stopping the run. We have been terrible against the run the past few games. Miami has a good oline. This is the key to the whole game. If they run at will, we will be toast.
2. No turnovers from Castellanos. I like TC and realize you take the good with the bad, but he has to get better with the ball. 
3. Get some INTs. If BC pulls down a few of those 50/50 balls last week, it is a different game. 

Gambling Notes
-- Miami leads the series 24-6
-- Four of BC's six wins in the series have come at Alumni
-- BC has won three of the last four in the series
The current line is BC+10

Factoid
For those few remaining BC fans still longing for the Big East, I would like to point out that BC played six former Big East teams this year. Current Big East school UConn played two.

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan-Ohio State. For members of the Ryan Day Fan Club, this is sort of a big deal. 

BC is in trouble if...We are down late. I have zero confidence in pulling off a two minute drill late in the game. Last week killed my belief in being able to go the length of the field without pounding the ball.

I hope to see...a BC win. Forget about Chesney or Ryan Day or anyone else, I want Hafley to win and succeed at BC. He is safe for now, but I want hope. I want progress. We need to pull off a huge upset to get out of lame duck status heading into 2024.

Bottom Line
I hate to be the guy to ruin your Thanksgiving, but I don't see us winning this game. Miami is a bad matchup and I fear our team is checked out.
Final Score: Miami 35, BC 21

BC-Pitt preview

The Jeff Hafley bandwagon got a little less crowded after the Hokies kicked BC’s butt. At this point I am aware that Hafley is not a Tom Coughlin-like shooting star. And I still believe in patience. In my opinion, how he finishes the season matters. It matters to who he is and what he is capable of becoming. Hafley has shown he will make changes and bold moves (they won’t always work). But now he needs to stop the bleeding and get momentum back. Pitt is reeling coming into this game. A good coach and a good team goes on the road and puts this game away. Let’s hope we are that good, because the difference between six wins and seven is monumental.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I’ve hit on this theme a good deal on Twitter, but the Jimbo Fisher firing is a reminder that hiring is hard. When we make a change at BC, people always gripe about the small time nature of our process or that we don’t have the money to hire anyone good. I always disagree because of two aspects. First there are only so many of these head coaching jobs and a bottomless pool of guys looking for their shot. Second throwing money at the problem doesn’t guarantee anything. Texas, Nebraska, USC, etc. have churned through coaches despite having historically great jobs and blank checks. Alabama stumbled for two decades before the timing worked with Nick Saban. Clemson had no idea what they were getting in Dabo. There is a lot of luck involved in this. I don’t think BC’s process when hiring should be haphazard or thoughtless. They should have a vision of what they want and a professional approach. But thinking that hiring the hot name or the expensive guy will deliver us to the next level is foolish.

Three Simple Keys
1. Come out running. For two weeks we’ve come out throwing and it has been a momentum killer. I know you want to work against tendency and show new wrinkles, but we are not built that way. We need to come out, hit them in the mouth and never look back.
2. Protect the ball. The VT loss is a different game without the turnovers. TC can’t force things and obviously needs to hold onto it when he takes off.
3. Stop the run. Pitt is going to try to win this on the ground. If we stuff the run, we win.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 1-0 vs Pitt
-- Narduzzi is 0-2 vs BC
-- BC is 1-2 at Acrisure Stadium
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
BC last played Pitt on a Thursday night in 1996. It was Halloween. Some of BC’s play and reaction was so bad people assumed something was up and suddenly the gambling scandal exploded. It thankfully was the beginning of the end of the Henning Era.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Miami. The Path is dead, but this game matters to us from a Miami perspective. It has been a rough year for the 'Canes. I am hoping they get stomped by Louisville and are demoralized and checked out coming into our game next week.

BC is in trouble if...Jurkovec plays. I don’t see Narduzzi using him at QB or TE unless Pitt is either up or Narduzzi feels like it will lead to a Pitt win. He is not going to embarrass the guy. So if Phil is on the field in a critical spot, I have a feeling things won’t be going BC’s way.

I hope to see…the defense step up without Jones. He has been the best defensive player and saved our butts multiple times. He won’t play this weekend or likely the rest of the season (undisclosed reasons). We need big games from everyone else.

Bottom line
Pitt is bad and seemingly checked out. Syracuse ran all over them. BC needs to keep is simple and do the same. If we try to get too cute or make mistakes, this could be a nail biter.
Final Score: BC 28, Pitt 10

BC-Virginia Tech preview

This run has been fun. No debate. The games are back and forth. We have pulled off some upsets on the road. We have some exciting players. No complaints from me. But we should probably recognize that our record is probably better than it should be. BC enters this game with a +5 point differential total on the season. When your point differential is so small, you usually are a .500 team. Winning close games is better than losing, but you have to recognize that your luck will run out. If BC really wants to continue this win streak, they need to take their level of play to the next level and start winning these games decisively.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
This will be our last Saturday game of the season and our last ACC Network game. But when you wonder why, just look at the TV ratings for Syracuse-BC. 1.1M people watched! The 15th most watched game of the weekend and the second highest rated ACC game of the weekend. If BC wants to stay in the good graces of the ACC and TV execs, they should be willing to play on Friday and Thursday nights as often as they will have us. (And for anyone who says that is a Syracuse number not a BC number, Cuse-VT on Thursday the week before only drew 700K and the Friday night game the week before of FAU-Charlotte only drew 300K).

Three Simple Keys
1. Don’t make TC do it all. I know we are thin and banged up, but we can’t have TC carry the ball 20+ times a game nor throwing it 35+ times a game. We need a steady run diet with whoever is healthy and leverage TC as a threat vs just a workhorse.
2. Get VT off the field. They are going to try to do what we do: shorten the game, long drives, etc. We need to get them behind schedule and be the ones controlling the clock.
3. Don’t lose the gambling mindset. We are going bowling. That’s the baseline. Now there really isn’t anything to lose. So Hafley should keep rolling the dice on 4th down. Keep calling fake punts and trick plays. Let it all hang out. We want to win.

Gambling notes
-- VT leads the series 20-11
-- Pry has yet to win an ACC road game
-- Hafley is 1-2 vs Virginia Tech
The Current line is BC+1.5

Factoid Since BC’s move from independence to Big East football, we’ve played Virginia Tech more than any other team (31 games). The only break was in our final year in the Big East, but that is somewhat offset by the two times we played them in the ACC Championship Game.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Virginia. A lot needs to happen for BC to make the ACC Championship Game. But the biggest hurdle is Louisville. We don’t need Virginia to pull off an upset, but it would help our chances.

BC is in trouble if…If we are truly down to one RB. Hafley said things are improved, but we have no idea if anyone is up for 20 carries.

What I hope to see…Better run defense. The Orange had too many big run plays. We can’t let that happen this week.

Bottom Line These two teams are very alike. I expect a slow-paced, grind it out affair. I think we have the better Oline and players and control in the second half. Final Score: BC 23, Virginia Tech 10

BC-Syracuse preview

I don't consider Syracuse a rivalry in the sense that I get overly emotional or take great pride in beating them. However, I do recognize that our games with the Orange -- especially in the Dome -- tend to be either huge trap games or huge boosts to various seasons. This game comes at a critical time. With a win, we become bowl eligible and keep the hot streak going. Lose and all the recent goodwill and momentum goes away. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The basketball season starts next week and I am excited. I think there is a general optimism among many casual BC fans and a lot of optimism among the hoops diehards. The experts still predict BC to finish in the bottom half of the conference, but many have us sneaking into the Tournament. We are still in the honeymoon phase with Earl, so I think we can do it. I just like entering the season where people beyond BC have a little faith in what's ahead.

Three Simple Keys
1. Protect the ball. Hafley didn't throw TC under the bus, but you could tell when talking about the UConn win, he was frustrated. Statistically BC dominated, but the scoreboard didn't show it. We can't turn the ball over and kill our drives nor give the Orange good field position.
2. Stick with the run. I know we are going to run. Everyone knows. But the key, which has paid off in the last three games, is the steady diet of run that wears on the other team. Our OLine is very good. Syracuse is not great against the run. So stick with it and hope that in the second half it leads to BC controlling the game.
3. Stop the run. Like us, I think Syracuse will try to control tempo, establish the run and then open up the passing game. If we run stop on first downs, we win this game.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 1-2 vs Babers
-- Hafley is 1-1 in Syracuse
-- Babers is 4-3 vs BC
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
Neither team has won three in a row in the series since 1998.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Virginia Tech. If you are reading this blog you probably know that the BC Twitterverse is hyper-focused on BC's path to the ACC Championship game. Aside from running the table ourselves, we need some help. It would be very helpful to the cause if Virginia Tech upset Louisville this weekend.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Last week he made some mistakes and missed some time and BC still won. That sort of thing can happen against a UConn. It won't in ACC games.

I hope to see...the DLine step up. The rest of the D is looking pretty good, but the Dline is still not disrupting much or generating a lot of pressure. We could use a big game.

Bottom Line
Syracuse looks like a team that is mentally checked out. I think BC goes into the Dome, pushes them around on the Line and pulls away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 31, Syracuse 13

BC-UConn preview

Everyone -- myself included -- is drinking the Kool-aid and believing the hype. I don't know if it will last. I don't know if it is real. But it is fun. And in the end, I think that's what I want. There were moments of fun during the Spaz and Addazio days, but the flaws on the field and the flaws of those wearing the headsets felt so permanent, that it was hard to get too juiced up. Hafley lost to Northern Illinois this year, so I am not calling him the next Coughlin. But the way this win streak and season is coming together gives me hope he is figuring things out. In the meantime, let's keep rolling and enjoy it while we can. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Earlier this year when it looked like the Hafley era might be coming to a close, the typical internet speculation kicked in. Inevitably there were plenty of "this guy would never take that job" comments. I usually retort with "you'd be surprised about who would take what as there are only so many jobs." A textbook case of guys looking for any job is Jim Mora at UConn. This is a long-time NFL coach and a guy who coached at UCLA. He had no connection to UConn or really the region. Yet here he was taking the UConn job. My point is these guys usually need to work for ego, financial and boredom reasons and there are only so many high-level jobs. Now would Nick Saban drop everything and take the UConn job? Of course not. But guys looking for their shot or a second chance or a salary north of $1 million will. And they will certainly listen to BC when our job opens up one day.

Three Simple Keys
1. Be conservative with new wrinkles and counters. I am not taking UConn for granted. But we shouldn't have to do much other than just plow forward and run them over. I don't want BC using any new looks or variations. Save those for the games where we are underdogs.
2. Be more aggressive with the punt returns. We've been letting too many punts roll and putting our Offense in bad starting field positions. We need to curtail that.
3. Continue to play aggressive man coverage. After we got burned against Louisville, I thought our DBs were terrible. They've looked better of late. I hope they continue to play more man this weekend as it helps the front and creates turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 12-1-2 
 -- UConn has never won or tied at Alumni
 -- UConn is 3-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC-14

Factoid
This is UConn's second visit to Alumni since their lawsuit against BC after the Big East split.

Scoreboard Watching
Duke-Louisville. On Sunday, some true believers started circulating a twitter post regarding what needs to happen for BC to make the ACC Championship Game. It's a lot, but the fact that we are even entertaining a run is nice. Needless to say, we need both Duke and Louisville to lose some games down the stretch. Someone is getting a loss in this game.

BC is in trouble if...we can't get the run going. I don't see us as one-dimensional, but I don't think this current roster lends itself to being pass heavy.

I hope to see...no one get hurt. Too often in these cupcake games we see a brutal, season changing injury.

Bottom Line
Last year was a nightmare and won't happen again. I think BC plays smart and tough and UConn can't keep up.
Final Score: BC 35, UConn 14

BC-Georgia Tech preview

From a fan perspective, these close games can be exhausting. Who wants to be sweating out a rainy game against Army? But beyond our emotions, lots of close games are not a good sign. Very good teams win by healthy margins. The problem with playing too many close games is it magnifies one or two plays and invites the opponent to steal the game from you. Unlike say TOB's penchant for close games, I don't think it is a product of playing too conservatively. In most of these cases it is because BC either starts slow or goes cold for long stretches. To truly turn the corner, Hafley needs the team to play at a high level for 60 minutes.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Georgia Tech is playing Florida State in Ireland next year. We haven't been back since we played the Yellow Jackets in 2016 and I don't know when will potentially play there again. I know we didn't max out on our tickets and packages last time (enthusiasm wasn't great coming off Addazio's worst season). But Addazio also pissed off a lot of the Irish organizers. He did his typical bully, yell at innocent people who are just trying to do their jobs routine throughout the trip. Despite our problems now, putting up with seven years of his behavior for .500 football was an incredible waste of time and good will.

Three Simple Keys
1. Avoid Castellanos turnovers. I will give him a break for the Army game. It was a wet, wet mess. But the truth is he does force some bad throws. He can't keep doing that because GT and all remaining opponents are going to stack the box and dare him to throw.
2. Put the game on the offensive line again. They get better each week, so it should remain an advantage. In Tech's bad losses this year, it was because the other team controlled the Line and put up big numbers on the ground.
3. Reset after taking on a gimmick offense. BC looked good against Army's new look until they lost focus and started biting on plays in the second half. Tech is more conventional but play action will still be a factor. BC needs to stay focused.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 2-0 vs Georgia Tech
-- GT leads the series 7-4
-- BC is 1-1 against the spread this year on the road
The current line is BC+5

Factoid

BC has never won three in a row vs Georgia Tech.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Wake Forest. I thought Pitt's season was over, but a QB change sparked a huge upset last week. Can they keep it up this week? 

BC is in trouble if...we don't score 30 or more. These close games are not going to always go our way. We need to be a little more aggressive and efficient on offense.

I hope to see...BC increase their pace a bit this week. As much as I appreciate a good, methodical and dominant run performance, I think a slower game helps Tech. We can keep it on the ground, but let's use tempo a good bit. 

Bottom Line
My confidence level isn't as high for this game as others, but Georgia Tech is beatable. I think Castellanos puts up some big numbers in his home state and our D does enough to win without it coming down to the last minute.
Final Score: BC 35, Georgia Tech 24

BC-Army preview

The short season nature of college football always has you looking ahead to the rest of the schedule. After BC beat Virginia last week, I revisited the remaining opponents and felt better. As UConn, Pitt and Georgia Tech’s terrible days progressed, BC’s chance at a winning season and Hafley saving his job became much more viable. All of that presumes we beat Army this week. The Cadets are favored and our last trip to West Point was a disaster. But we can win this week. We have to win this week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC doesn’t schedule the service academies enough. It has been ten years since we played Army, 20 since we played Navy and 43 years since we’ve played Air Force. The East Coast academies used to be a regular part of our schedule. I know their offenses are hard to play and there is very little upside. But you have to play someone out of conference. Isn’t playing Army or Navy more respectable than trying to drum up a series with a random mid-major? With the conferences in flux, I know we can’t predict much regarding future schedules, but I hope BC calls Army and Navy first when they are trying to fill out their calendars.

Three Simple Keys
1. Disciplined play on the Defensive line. Army’s new offense is more like Wake’s than the Triple Option, but it still starts with an option style read in the backfield. Our DLine needs to win their battles up front and keep Army from establishing tempo or space in the pocket.
2. Get Bond more touches. It is natural when things are gloomy to latch on to the first sign of life. I know Bond won’t be Zay tomorrow (or maybe ever), but he has some key attributes – finding space, making people miss, etc – that are in short supply. We need to get him seven or eight touches this week.
3. Win the turnover battle. We got lucky last week. Very lucky. This week we need to protect the ball more and hopefully force a few turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 25-13
-- BC is 12-11 in Michie Stadium
-- Hafley is 7-4 in non-conference games
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
We had a five game win streak vs Army prior to Spaz’s loss in 2012 and a nine game win streak prior to Henning’s loss in 1995.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-UNC. The Orange lost last week (which gave me some hope). Immediately people online mentioned this year might be another season where Baber’s starts hot and ends the season in a free fall. I hope so. It will be telling if they bounce back this week vs Carolina.

BC is in trouble if… Army eats up the clock. They are not triple option, but they are still slow and methodical. We can’t let them have seven and eight minute drives.

I hope to see… Castellanos be more careful with the ball. He looked good on the ground, but the passing game was a hit or miss. Castellanos can’t force things and needs to be careful throwing into coverage.

Bottom Line
I think this is another close game. BC wins by making fewer mistakes and Hafley gets us back to .500
Final Score: BC 28, Army 20

BC-Virginia preview

We’ve suffered some beatdowns before, but usually they are against elite teams...Miami in its heyday. Clemson recently. Notre Dame put up some lopsided numbers when they are trending up and we are trending down. But this year’s Louisville team is not elite. It is not like losing to a mediocre Army or Navy team, but the lack of effort and lack of adjustments and the inability to stop them were terrible. Can we bounce back? Sure. We are even favored this week. But last week was the first time it felt like Hafley has lost the lockerroom.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In case you missed it, BC just announced a new $3 billion capital campaign. $400 million of the goal is for athletics. When people predict that BC will downgrade athletics or purposefully opt out of the looming super leagues, you only need to look at this to know the Board understands the value of sports. I hope the lofty goal as well as new pressure from the ACC forces BC to be more active in supporting and managing their teams.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pressure on the whoever plays QB for UVA. One of the reasons Louisville was able to hit so many long passes is our pass rush. At this point, blitz more just to shake things up. Both of their guys might play this weekend. We need to bring the pressure regardless.
2. Give more design runs for Castellanos. At this point he is our only elite playmaker. Give him some simple RPOs.
3. Don’t get down early. This team is on the edge. If we get behind by double digits again, it will be over.

Gambling notes
--Virginia is 2-2 against the spread
-- Virginia has lost seven straight
-- BC leads the series 6-1
The current line is BC-3.5

Factoid
This is BC’s first national game on the CW Network. It is basically the old Raycom production so it won’t feel that foreign to regular fans. It will be interesting to see if this relationship grows. Football, above all other sports, drives TV and over the air TV companies need draws just like the cable and streamers.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Syracuse. The Orange are 4-0 again which leads to the semi-regular question: is Syracuse good this year? Clemson is also in a desperate need of an ACC win, so this should be pretty telling for both.

BC is in trouble if… We come out flat again. Virginia is bad. They are looking for reasons to fold. If we come out flat again, we give them new life.

I hope to see… The Offensive line dominate. Lost in all the disappointment is how improved the Oline is. It is still a long way to go to get them to elite, but being functional is a step in the right direction. Their biggest problem has been penalties.

Bottom Line
If you have a terrible game, it is nice to rebound against a bad team. I think as long as we limit the big pass plays, BC should be ok. We will score enough to win, it is just a matter of holding them.
Final Score: BC 28, Virginia 21