Monday, August 27, 2012

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Every year I do three breakdowns of the season ahead. One is the pessimistic version, the next the optimistic and then the final is what I think will actually happen. Over the years I have missed the mark, but in most cases my actual prediction was pretty accurate. Last year for the first time we came pretty close to the worst case. I don't know what to expect this year. Because of the mood around the team and Spaz, I think the beginning of the season is critical. If we start slow, the season could unravel. If we win, the team might rally around each other and get back to winning football. If things do fall apart, this is how I think it will play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Miami. Loss. BC's offense struggles as the line buckles against the U's front and we can't make much happen with our depleted skill position players. BC's defense keeps us in the game, but we start another season with a home loss.

Maine. Win. BC bounces back from the rough loss in the opener. Even if things get real bad this season, I can't see a scenario where we lose to Maine.

at Northwestern. Loss. Even though BC knows what's coming, we can't adjust to the Wildcats' tempo or mobile QB.

Clemson. Loss. Like last season, Spaz plays ball control in order to keep it close, but BC can't keep up with even a low-scoring Clemson team.

at Army. Loss. Army is improved and gives us trouble throughout the game. They steal it late and leave every fan and player thinking the season is over.

at Florida State. Loss. BC names a new Athletic Director in the week prior to the game. There's renewed hope in the fanbase (and even among the players). But Florida State is rolling and crushes us.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. Georgia Tech's offense presents a tough matchup under normal circumstances. Add the chaos around the season and Spaz checking out and this game becomes another loss.

Maryland. Win. Spaz's saving grace in 2011 comes into the game in rough shape again. BC wins in a similar fashion: run, run and more running.

at Wake Forest. Loss. BC plays tough but Wake has another WTF win in the series and steals a close game at home.

Notre Dame. Loss. The Irish offense is playing well and light us up. BC scores more than our average but can't keep up in a shootout. This loss means no bowl for BC again. The new AD fires Spaz after the game. Doug Martin is named interim Head Coach.

Virginia Tech. Loss. Martin gives the team some new energy, but it is still not enough to beat Virginia Tech.

at NC State. Win. Is there a more predictable scenario than TOB losing to a lessor team in his last game against BC?

3-9 and (2-6) in conference means a total house cleaning. The majority of the coaching staff is let go and many players decide to transfer. BC hires a new coach and reexamines everything it does with regard to football. The 16 year culture of TOB, Coach Flip and their shared disciples is over.


Claver2010 said...

Funny, cause if you add a win or so, it's exactly how many believe this season will play out.

Joe Gravellese said...

Spaz getting fired in-season doesn't sound like a worst-case scenario to me! haha.

But seriously, I don't see any way we lose to Army. Even in the worst case scenario. My "realistic prediction" would be this but with wins @ Army and W(T)F. 5-7.

Which should still be enough for a new AD to want to clean house.

EL MIZ said...

that's the thing Joe, if Spaz gets fired its hard to say that is "worst case." worst case going into season prior to GDF getting forced out was Spaz not getting fired. that there will be a new AD means pretty much anyway this season goes there will be optimism at the end of the year with a new coach.

still, a 3-9 season would be woeful. i'd tune out after the army loss.

Joe Gravellese said...

Exactly. 6-6 or thereablouts + some media spinning (Blauds' departure helps with this too) and suddenly Spaz is the best and we should give him more time.

GDF leaving elimintes this possibility and means that we can be excited about improvements this year without thinking they'll hamstring the program in the form of more Spaz

Big Jack Krack said...

The worst case scenario is ugly to contemplate - so I'm not going to do it.

We have to find the formula (will) to win games that can go either way this year.

Maine and Army = wins.

Either way - Miami, Northwestern, Clemson, Maryland, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, NC State.

We'll need something special to pull off wins at Florida State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech this year = long shots; probable losses.

This is why we play the games! :-)

Go BC - beat Miami.

BTW - I'm not flying up to Boston with the thought of losing to the Hurricanes - I'm flying up with the thought of winning for sure.

JBO, said...

here is an interesting approach

1. Assign each game a percentage chance of winning in the form of a decimal. e.g., 50% = .5; 10% = .1; and 99% = .99

2. Add up all the decimals.

3. Round to the nearest interger.

4. This is how many wins you think BC will achieve.

my view:

Miami. .6
Maine. .99
at Northwestern. .5
Clemson. .4
at Army. .9
at Florida State. .2
at Georgia Tech. .3
Maryland. .7
at Wake Forest. .6
Notre Dame. .5
Virginia Tech..3
at NC State. .4

total : 5.99

BC is going 6-6!

philibusters said...

Writing as a Terp fan I'd say my best prediction for BC football would be

Miami .5
Maine .95
@NW .45
Clemson .2
@Army .65
@FSU .1
@GT .25
UMD .6
@Wake .5
ND .25
VT .25
@NCS .25
Total: 4.45 wins

Sarum80 said...

Big Jack Krack is absolutely correct. Find the WILL to win!

Let's go Eagles!!!

BCDoubleEagle said...

Six years later and you still can't resist taking two potshots at TOB in this post. Lame.

TOB's last three years at BC:
27-9 (.750) overall
5-3 (.625) against ranked teams
9 wins per year
2-0 in bowls
final AP rank: #21, #18, #20

Also recruited/developed Mark Herzlich, Matt Ryan, B.J. Raji, Mathias Kiwanuka, etc.

Yep, we're sure lucky to be rid of him...

eagleboston said...

I don't for a minute believe the NC State game will be an easy win for BC. TOB is the king of the WTF, but his team is loaded with talent and you know he circles this game every year (although now that Gene is gone perhaps that removes some of the emphasis).

eagleboston said...

Double Eagle,

A lot of BC fans, ATL and myself included, completely lost touch with reality in the mid 'oughts. The guy turned around a program in complete disarray, became the winningest coach in BC history, always won his bowl games and, most importantly, kicked the Domers asses every year. I got tired of the WTF's, but I would take him back in a heartbeat.

Danny Boy said...

Its easy to have hindsight about TOB. He got us as far as he could. He felt that we could go no further, but that was with him at the helm.

Good programs will ride a coach to his or her peak, and then hire a coach to elevate from the new status quo to the next level. That is how you build quality programs. The odds of us finding a gem of a coach to take us from the basement to ACC championships is rare.

GDF messed up the schedule. TOB absolutely delivered us from the basement into a solid position. Instead of finding a coach to build on that legacy, GDF either cut the experiment short while on an upswing (Jags), or turned it over to someone who was already in over his head and then pretended that everything was still great (Spaz).

We've had setbacks, but we can get back to where we were with TOB. And we can surpass where he left us. We're just behind schedule.

mmason said...

When all the whining & depression & the shock that BC Football has lost its past greatness ends...(yeah, greatness equates to respect earned from winning consistently and having a rep for being good enough to win any game. TOB did that and the fact that he handed Jags a team and a Heisman brand QB that even Spaz might have won with is part of his legacy.)...

When all the sad music and grief winds down, let's face the truth. Double Eagle is right on target. Think of those TOB teams and that level of excellent preparation and no nonsense head coaching...and then read these blogs that bemoan our descent into Suckomania and then feel bad for the kids on the field who are the ones who have to carry all this out there on Saturdays...

Love my Eagles for 5 decades but this present culture needs to change now. National Championships are great, but what we had and lost was something to be proud of, it was classy and it was fun. Are we happy now? Go Eagles!