Saturday, August 26, 2017

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go! Time for my annual tradition of forecasting BC's ceiling, basement and what will probably happen. As always, I start with the worst case scenario. This season is Addazio's 5th year. It is the one he has been pointing to since the day he arrived. If everything falls apart now -- at a time when it is should be turning the corner -- then the guy is done at BC. I don't think the following will happen, but this is how it could go bad.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Northern Illinois. Loss. Both QBs play and both look bad. The Offense is stagnant and the D allows a few big plays.

Wake Forest. Loss. Another low scoring Defensive game. But BC's D is not what it was a few years ago. An 0-2 start basically ends Addazio's career with the BC fanbase. Lame ducks status depends on his new boss.

Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes out fired up and the fans show some signs of life. But it is not enough as the OL is a problem.

at Clemson. Loss. Another loss, but like ND, it is a close game so apologists have plenty of rah rah nonsense to spin the record.

Central Michigan. Win. The first W provides a little relief. The D plays well and BC gets a few big plays from the Offense.

Virginia Tech. Loss.  BC drops another close game. The team looks more cohesive since the opener, but their record now stands at a putrid 1-5.

at Louisville. Loss.  We slow the Cardinals down, but can't pull out the upset.

at Virginia. Win. I don't think we are going 0-fer in the ACC again. This is solid road win. There is talk of another late season rally.

Florida State. Loss. This is a bad game. FSU blows us out at home.

NC State. Win. There is a lot of preseason hype around NC State, but I just have a feeling they will be a little overrated and we will play spoiler here.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think UConn will be terrible this year and we smash them at Fenway.

at Syracuse. Win. Everything looks good. BC controls the tempo and scoring and seems to have the Orange's offense figured out.

With this BC would finish 5-7 (3-5 in the ACC). This would be a huge problem for Jarmond. Does the strong finish and strong recruiting class earn Addazio enough goodwill to comeback one more year? I would be against it, but could see how the new AD would want to give him a chance.


Unknown said...

Please hurry with your best case. This take (certainly plausible) has made me very depressed.

TheFive said...

This is not even close to the worst case. If we start off 0-4, the chance of going 5-3 to close is nil.

JBQ said...

I am with "TheFive" on the worst case. You need only look at the Sagarin ratings to see that it is plausible to go 2-12. Nevertheless, dress rehearsal is over and come Friday, we will know a lot.

John said...

The team must prove it on the day, for sure. At this point, there is room for optimism, so the worst case scenario is something that should not be entertained.

Go BC - beat NIU.

Unknown said...

8-4 is the best case scenario, the worst case will be 4-8. My prediction is 7-5, BC finally has experience and returning coordinators on both sides of the ball. Mainly the success or failure will be dependent upon how great the defense is once again. BC's offense will likely control the ball with a run first style, since their backfield is pretty stacked. I expect this to be Addazio's best year as head coach since the ACC is weaker then last year. My final prediction is 7-5 and I'm sticking with that.

EL MIZ said...

worst case scenario should include a loss to UCONN

if we go under 500 Jarmond would not have a tough decision - DAZ would get canned. in the above scenario DAZ would be 13-28 in 5 years in the ACC. far from acceptable. Daz needs to go over 500 to stick around another year.

Unknown said...

One game at a time...
BC 20 NIU 6

modest34b said...

this is a likely scenario - 5-7 (but swap N Ill and NC State results ) - which would be a decent result ... unacceptable to me .. but not horrible. Daz might survive at 5-7 (cue the endless Daz excuse train, the possibility that Jarmond too lacks leadership skills (or lacks an immediately better option to Daz) and combine that with BC's pathological cheapness and he stays)

as JBQ suggested, i looked at Sagarin's rankings and CBS Sports too. BC is ranked #89 and #87 on those lists. According to Sagarin, we are he worst team in the ACC and, according to CBS, we are second worst in the ACC. Not good either way.

On Sagarin, BC is considered better than only UConn and Central Mich. On CBS, BC is considered to be better than UConn, C Mich, UVA and N. Ill.

so 2-10, or 3-9 or 4-8 are real possibilities.... and not necessarily a worst case. Worst case is probably 1-11 (we beat C Mich)

A Crappy QB, Crappy OL, Crappy OC and Crappy HC do not usually lead to good results.

NYCEagle said...

I seriously doubt this team wins less than 6 games. We have ACC level talent all over our defense and the most at our skill positions in the last 10 years. If our offensive line lived up to BC's honored tradition at that position the last several years we would have been above .500 regardless of poor QB play

NYCEagle said...

We lost 5 games by 3 points in 2015 while starting a 4th string walk on at QB for several games. Could you imagine what could have been with a serviceable QB (Wade or Brown) behind a strong offensive line (baker, Lindstrom, Monteiro) with a stable of talented backs (Hilliman, Jones, Dillon, Levy)

JBQ said...

@NYCEagle: Hopefully with the countdown continuing. 8:30 PM Central, Friday, CBS Sports Network. Let's see what we got.

Gerry said...

So, Syracuse is picked to finish higher than BC, has won 3 of the last 4 head to head matchups, and is 11-3 all time vs. BC in the Carrier Dome, and the "Worst Case Scenario" has BC winning at Syracuse. That makes sense.

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