Conference Shuffle 2011: Where is BC's best home?

With Texas and Texas A&M fighting over the new Longhorn Network, it looks like another conference reshuffle might happen soon. Add in the Pac 12's bold new TV plan and it makes sense for the SEC, Big Ten and Pac 12 to all expand to 16 teams. The question then becomes which 16 and how can BC position itself for the future. I foresee three scenarios. None are great, but let me know what you think.

1. Current ACC + 4 new members
This is my ideal setup. It keeps BC with enough like-minded schools. We wouldn't be overwhelmed by the competition and would probably result in a new ACC TV network. The downside is we would probably have to add schools we don't care for like UConn, Rutgers or West Virginia. But this future would provide the most continuity, stability and keep us where we belong academically and geographically.

2. BC joins the Big Ten
This might be the most far fetched, but I think it is much more realistic than people suspect. As I've said before the Big Ten would want TV markets, respectable sports and academics. BC provides all three. We would also add a boost to the fledgling Big Ten Hockey Conference. This would take a lot of political maneuvering and we would really have to sell the Big Ten on why BC makes more sense than some of their other candidates. But if the Big Ten added Notre Dame, Rutgers and Syracuse, BC would fit in well. That combination would also assure the Big Ten of the northeast TV markets.

3. BC joins the ACC and Big East leftovers.
This is my fear. In this scenario a few of the ACC's top football programs defect to the SEC and we are left to backfill with the Big East. Although if these dominoes fall, I think the Big East backfill could be teams like USF and UConn as opposed to Pitt or even a Rutgers. It would probably be a good basketball conference, but I don't think it would get much respect from the football media or our fanbase.

There are plenty of ifs in all of this. My focus is always on what is best for BC. Ultimately, I think the status quo. Unfortunately the status quo never lasts in college sports. We need a conference where we can compete, keep up with top revenue producers and stay relevant. I think aligning ourselves with Big Ten is the best bet. But will they want us?

Reading the tea leaves on Big Ten hockey

The BCI crew took note of Penn State adding hockey and how it will impact BC. Their fear is that the money generated by Big Ten hockey via the Big Ten Network would give those six schools a huge advantage over traditional power conferences like the Hockey East. I actually think Big Ten Hockey helps BC. Let me explain:

-- The Big Ten is not done expanding. Despite the relative calm now that they've added Nebraska, I don't believe the Big Ten is done expanding. The Big XII is still in a precarious position as is the Big East and the Big Ten is in the catbird seat because of their TV money. When the next conference shuffle comes, the Big Ten will be influencing much of who goes where.
-- If hockey becomes a focus of the Big Ten Network, hockey programs will be needed too. Football will always drive the conversation and the network's revenue. Basketball is next. But hockey could become a lucrative staple of the cable network. So in looking for expansion candidates, you will be hard to pressed to find someone who does all three better than BC. What candidate, other than Notre Dame, would offer the Big Ten those three elements?
-- BC is still a better TV play than most schools out there.
Our ratings are strong on a local level and on a national level (for a non traditional power). The Big Ten has little market presence in New England or on New England cable systems (as a premium channel). BC would help on that front.

Now, I don't think the Big Ten officials are huddled in Chicago thinking "how can we get BC to defect?." They would never add us as a stand alone 13th team. But the hockey factor makes us that much more attractive as a school that might join with one or three other universities.

Despite our comfort in the ACC and being a founding member of Hockey East, BC would certainly entertain the idea. I know Father Leahy and Gene D dread the idea of going through another conference shuffle, but they also fear the idea of BC being part of a leftover conference. Money is important to the school but so is association. If we can have a financially stable conference and still be associated with Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia, etc, I think BC would gladly stay put. But if BC is left in a conference with the Big East retreads, the school wouldn't think twice about joining the Big Ten.

Things still uncertain in our old home

The surprising thing about the conference shuffle is that you didn't see many posts or articles calling for BC to rejoin the Big East. The "BC back to the Big East" meme is a favorite of the old timers in the media and the spitballing Big East bloggers. This time around everyone assumed the Big East was going to collapse, so BC moving back wasn't even relevant. And it now appears that BC is in a stable, protected conference at least until the next TV contract. Our old conference, the Big East, remains in turmoil. Here is an excellent State of the Conference from USF bloggers Voodoo Five (HT BCI). I feel sorry for Pitt, Syracuse and even Rutgers. They were all poised for bigger and better things and now are back in conference purgatory. The ACC is not perfect, but it's home.

Dust settles on conference expansion for now

Since Texas is staying put, it looks like the conference shake up business is settling down. A few mid majors might move to fill out slots in the Pac 10 or Big XII, but BC is not going anywhere. This is really the best news we could have hoped for. We are part of an ACC with a better TV deal and can continue to grow our ACC roots. If anything, the what if game just reaffirmed we are where we belong. The thought of playing West Virginia again or UConn annually seemed to upset most BC fans (it did this one). The ACC is not perfect and I don't think we will ever be appreciated there, but it is our home...for now.

So how long will this peace last? I only see two things that could force BC's hand.

1. Notre Dame decides to join a conference. This would have a ripple effect across the whole landscape. If the Irish ever decide to join a conference, you can be sure that BC would be rumored to follow. If they went to the Big Ten we would be listed as an appeasement (Catholic, private, rival). If they went to the Big East you would hear talk of us "coming home."

2. The BCS conferences break away from the NCAA. I think the issue is too complicated because of the non-revenue sports. But if the NCAA starts a DIA playoff, you know the BCS conferences would talk of doing their own thing.