Unhappy Oklahoma is good for the ACC

Oklahoma stirred the pot in College Football over the last few days by publicly complaining about the current Big XII. There are a host of issues but the main two are Longhorn Network undermining any chance of a Big XII Network and the lack of good expansion prospects. Nothing will happen this summer, but Big XII weakness is great for the ACC.

As long as there is just a four-team playoff and five major conferences, there will be plenty of selection controversy. Four major conferences with four auto-bids would make more sense. And if you take the next step, four-auto bids as part of a eight team playoff would work well. Some form of consolidation will come. It the Big XII is the weakest conference, then that means the ACC is safe. Plus the ACC's flexibility with Notre Dame is a clear signal to Texas or any other unhappy Big XII team, that we are the best destination for their athletic programs.

BC is never going to drive the conference shuffles, but we can influence things. I hope Brad Bates is working the back channels in the conference and the Big XII in a way that makes the ACC and BC stronger.

Division shuffle may mean end of "VT rivalry"

Jason Staples broke the news Monday that the ACC is likely to shake up the divisions with the departure of Maryland and the arrival of Louisville. Instead of the Cardinals taking Maryland's spot in the Atlantic, Louisville would join the Coastal and Georgia Tech would move to the Atlantic. As a BC fan in Atlanta, I love the idea, but that is not the big news. Because Georgia Tech and Clemson are now cross-division rivals, having them in the same division would require adjustments for everyone. Staples speculates that Clemson would now face Virginia Tech annually. If that happens and the other "rivalries" stay the same, that leaves BC facing Louisville or Virginia annually.

While we do have some history with Virginia Tech, I wouldn't shed a tear over dropping them from our schedule. Since we joined the conference, the Hokies have been the most consistent program and hurt our win-loss record. Even if they fade a bit as Beamer ages, I still think it will be a tough game for any BC team. Plus the location is hardly inviting for any of our fans.

Louisville as a annual opponent won't excite the old-timers at Alumni, but it is not a bad game or rivalry for us. They are good now, but based on the historical strengths of each program, we should be able to compete with them. Making trips to Louisville also benefits our recruiting in Cincinnati and southwest Ohio. And although it is a "southern" school, geographically the game would be a nice road trip for our fans in Ohio and Indiana.

Virginia probably excites more people and is near a huge alumni base, but I don't think it will happen. My prediction is that the two more established ACC schools in UVA and Georgia Tech will ask to be paired together and let the newbies in BC and Louisville have each other.

This does confirm that my idea of a "Big East" and "ACC" divisional mix is dead, but getting rid of the Hokies is a nice compromise.

Louisville doesn't matter, ACC cable network does

The ACC voted to invite Louisville to join the conference. Ostensibly it was about replacing Maryland. The reality was the move was also about protecting the conference from future poaching. Louisville was also a rumored target for the Big XII. The rationale is that if the ACC gets to 16 first, they will protect themselves if or when things truly become four 16-team Super Conferences. The Big XII is only at 10 teams and really only has two heavyweights in Texas and Oklahoma. ACC leadership is betting that it will be easier for the good Big XII teams to find new homes as opposed to the Big XII enticing six ACC teams to join them.

But lost in the Louisville news is a report that the ACC and ESPN are exploring a cable network. I've been calling for this for months and I am glad people in Bristol finally woke up. Having its own cable network is the only way the ACC will ever get to revenue parity with the other conferences and is the only way Florida State and Clemson start to feel more comfortable with the ACC's future. The move makes sense for ESPN too as it provides stability to its exclusive partner (the ACC) and controls all the content on various platforms.

As for Louisville, I am indifferent on actually playing them. They don't fit the ACC's academic profile, but the last few weeks have proven that none of this is about academics.

Ranking BC among the Musical Chairs participants

Maryland is gone and no one thinks this is that last move. If BC wants to stay a player in college athletics, we better put on our best dancing shoes and get ready for some wheeling and dealing.

Let's assume we are really headed towards four 16 team Super Conferences. That leaves two remaining spots in the Big Ten, two remaining spots in the SEC, six in the Big 12 and four in the Pac 12. That is 14 teams that could move. There are now 14 teams in the ACC. Conceivably the conference could dissolve and all the current ACC members could find other homes. We all know it won't be that clean and we also know that the Big East and MWC teams are fighting for those same spots. 

BC does have some value. As Maryland and Rutgers just proved, this is more about cable subscribers than sports. BC still sits squarely in the seventh largest TV market in the country. A college network could never charge as much as NESN does in the New England area, but even getting a 25% of NESN's fees would be a huge revenue boone for any conference. We also brings a solid athletic and academic reputation. Plus we are non-threatening. If anything these Super Conferences are looking for a bunch of Washington Generals who happen to have good cable potential. BC could fill that need. 

The SEC is not going to come calling, so really our only non-ACC options are the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the Pac 12. (I will get into the geographic issues of the Pac 12 and Big 12 later.)

Big Ten

If the Big Ten were to expand and follow the same motivations they just established with Rutgers and Maryland, this would be their order of preference:

1. Notre Dame

2. North Carolina

3. Virginia

4. Florida State

5. Virginia Tech

6. BC

7. Duke

8. Georgia Tech

I don't think the Big Ten wants Louisville, UConn or any Big 12 team (other than Texas). If they did want them, they would have already taken them. Being sixth on their list doesn't seem like a good place to be, but you have to consider that ND, UNC, UVA, FSU and Virginia Tech will all have multiple options. The Big Ten money might be attractive, but culturally and geographically they might fit better in the SEC or Big 12 and get the same money. 

In this game BC needs to be flexible and keep dialogue and options open, but if the ACC unravels, we need to focus on the Big Ten. We would be a oddball there, but it would still be the best of the remaining fits.

SEC

The SEC is never coming for BC. Ever. And it would be a terrible fit for us.

Big 12

The Big 12 is intriguing because they need money and teams to keep up with the other conferences. They are very Texas-centric and a seemingly odd fit for BC, but if they went to 16 teams and had a "Northeast Division" of West Virginia, Pitt, BC and Syracuse, it wouldn't seem all that odd to us. I doubt their expansion would be that clean and simple either. All indications are that their first move would be to get the southern football powers. The northeast TV markets would be second.

1. Notre Dame

2. Florida State

3. North Carolina

4. Virginia Tech

5. Virginia 

6. Georgia Tech

7. Duke

8. NC State

9.Clemson

10. BC

11. Syracuse

12. Miami

13. Pitt

This is where things get dicey. This conference has six spots and we would probably be their 10th choice. But I have some belief that if Notre Dame or UNC were really determined to leave, they would not move to the Big 12, leaving spots open for a place like BC.

Pac 12

In 2010 Pac 12 (then Pac 10) commissioner Larry Scott wanted to partner with the ACC to form a national college cable channel. He was rebuffed. That will be a move that haunts the ACC for years, as Scott got his cable deal and the ACC is left scrambling. The conference realignment could bring new life to Scott's old idea. All he needs is an eastern outpost for his Pac 12 channel.

It might seem like the Pac 12 would want closer teams, but once you go to 16, you can start creating regional pods or divisions within the conference.

1. Notre Dame

2. North Carolina

3. Duke

4. Florida State

5. BC

6. Virginia

7. Virginia Tech

8. Miami

9. Syracuse

10. NC State

It might surprise some that I think we are the 5th most attractive ACC program to the Pac 12, but that is based purely on our TV numbers in San Francisco and Los Angeles. If the Pac 12 decides to do something as extreme as an East Coast division, it will be about TV numbers.

What's next

I don't know but the SEC has a TV deal coming up and the sudden urge to be bigger than the Big Ten. They will come to the ACC. Then it becomes a matter of who leaves. From there, it will be more dominoes. There is enough room for BC, but we need our new leadership working every angle. 

There's nothing BC could have done about Maryland

I don't know how or if it will play out but it appears Maryland and Rutgers are headed to the Big Ten. BC fans and observers have spent endless hours discussing conference realignment and what BC can and should do to protect our interests. Maryland and Rutgers proves that none of it matters. They will be part of one of the power conferences not because of their sports, not because of their money, not because of their academic reputation, nor because of their fundraising. It won't even be about their TV ratings. Neither school drives ratings like other "available" schools. They are being selected because of the number of cable subscribers in their respective home states. The Big Ten doesn't even care if people watch Maryland or Rutgers. They just want people who live in those states to pay $1.50 a month for the privileged of watching Maryland and Rutgers as part of Big Ten football.

In a way the move is a relief. We are starting to remove pretenses about what matters and why the conferences are doing what they are doing.

As always this leaves the ACC vulnerable. If the $50 million exit fee wasn't enough to prevent cash-strapped Maryland from leaving, it won't be enough to keep other schools. As long as the ACC is without its own cable platform, we will never have the revenue or distribution leverage. When the ACC leadership got coldfeet years ago about starting their own network, the die was cast.

The only saving grace is our codependency on ESPN and Notre Dame. Neither are going anywhere and both need BC and a few other castoffs on life support. Notre Dame needs us because this move from the Big Ten signals the Irish are going to be very limited in their Big Ten scheduling. ESPN needs us because the ACC is their only true content partner. They need college football games to fill all their networks. With the Big Ten, Pac 12 and soon to be SEC keeping more and more of their own content away from ESPN, the worldwide leader has no choice but to show ACC games.

This is not the end of conference shuffles. It never is. I just hope BC's leadership keeps all options open. That's the best we can do at this point.

Notre Dame to ACC as non-football member

ESPN reported that Notre Dame will join the ACC as a non-football member. Rumblings started this morning but there has been plenty of speculation for months. According to ESPN the Irish will commit to playing five ACC teams annually in football. Given that Pitt and BC are regular opponents, adding three more ACC teams is not much of a hardship on Notre Dame. I assume the deal also allows Notre Dame to keep its NBC deal for football.

The good news
In the changing landscape of college football this gives the ACC one of the few remaining chess pieces. I assume there will be some sort of bowl partnership in the relationship. While the politics of the new playoff are still to be determined, you would have to imagine Notre Dame's vote and interests will now be more closely aligned with the ACC. Adding the Irish for also is probably enough of a trigger to reopen our ESPN deal again to get some more money.

The bad news
It is partial membership with no rumored transition date to full membership. We only need to look back to our Big East days to know that the Irish will do everything in their power to keep their football independence. The other issue is this probably means the ACC will add a 16th team to balance things out. That means were are probably back in a conference with Rutgers or UConn again.

Study: conference moves help academics

BC's move to the ACC still generates criticism. Some old school fans miss Big East Basketball and the media still harps on BC's fit with a "southern" conference. But most reasonable sports measures would deem the move a success.

With another potential shuffle on the horizon, some fans are questioning if BC needs to be in a major conference. The financial commitment and the compromises on the academic side have people wondering what the net benefit is to the University. A new study shows that conference moves and big time sports do benefit the  school as a whole. Schools like BC see admissions become more competitive and see a higher percentage of admitted applicants matriculate to the school.

I worry about what the college landscape will look like in 10 years and where BC will fit, but I think studies like these show that BC needs to be aggressive in our positioning. That mindset has helped make BC the school it is today.


(Thanks to Kevin for the link.)

ACC will do anything to keep FSU

Earlier I said that the only thing that could save the ACC was ESPN. When the Big XII was set to fall apart, ESPN came in and appeased Texas and held the coalition together. It doesn't appear like they will do the same for Florida State and the ACC. I think this is shortsighted on their part, but I don't think anyone in Bristol or Tallahassee seems to care. Now with the Plus+1 format back in play power is definitely consolidating. As I said before, if Florida State leaves it would set off a chain reaction and the ACC would splinter. I don't think most ACC members wants that. I don't even know if Florida State wants that. But money and survival trump all. However, the ACC can save the conference and keep Florida State. But they need to act quickly and pull every lever possible.

Uneven revenue sharing
The other teams are going to have to pay Florida State to stick around. However unfair it might seem, that is the reality. I am sure they will create calculations to rationalize the new splits, but at the end of the day FSU is going to demand the biggest share of the pie. And that is going to come from schools like Wake, Pitt BC and Syracuse. I don't like the idea and think it is a slippery slope, but I know that it is on the table. It is the price the smaller schools will pay to have a seat in a power conference. (And once FSU pulls that off, look for the power players in the other conferences to do the same. How long do you think Ohio State wants to split their money evenly with Iowa? etc.)

Turn the Orange Bowl into an elite Bowl
With the Plus+1 back on the table and the four power conferences paired off, congressional oversight might rear its ugly head again. That means that the Big Boys will need to throw a bone to the Have Nots. The Orange Bowl is also in danger of becoming a second tier bowl. If the ACC and the Orange Bowl want to stay relevant they need to find an opponent who provides relevancy. They should commit to taking the highest ranked at large team every year to play the ACC Champ. In some years that might be a Boise. In others the second place team from the Big Ten or SEC. But whoever it is needs to provide a ratings boost to the ACC Champion. In this scenario an 11-1 Florida State team might play a 11-1 LSU team or a 12-0 Boise State. The winner of that game would probably jump a two-loss team that might win from the Rose or Champions Bowl.

Play the Basketball card
With new conference shift, the big schools are closer and closer to leaving the NCAA. That would mean huge money deals. While basketball is secondary, the new power schools will want a basketball tournament. ESPN would want to broadcast that tournament and have let it be known that they would want Duke, UNC and Syracuse part of that tournament. FSU might cringe at basketball reasserting itself, but will the Noles really care as long as they have the money and access they want.

ESPN is the only thing that can save the ACC as we know it

Florida State is frustrated and ready to move. As a matter of self-preservation another ACC school will jump to the Big XII with them (Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech) and then all the ACC teams will scramble in another game of musical chairs. (Maryland and Virginia to the Big Ten? NC State and Virginia Tech to the SEC?) If this happens, it will be ESPN's fault. And ESPN's will pay dearly for it. They will pay in increased rights fees and loss of control. The worldwide leader in sports has the chance to hit the brakes and preserve their investment and control in the ACC, but based on the actions out of Bristol, no one there seems to see the big picture.

Here are the factors in play, what ESPN can do and why they should act.

Money and ACC parity
Issue: Every time the ACC signs an ESPN TV deal, it is outdated and below market before the ink is dry. This naturally causes resentment among the members and puts them behind their competitors in other conferences. ESPN probably feels blameless in this area. They are not forcing the ACC to sign these deals. They can't help the timing. It's not ESPN's fault that the ACC leaders are playing checkers while the other conferences play chess. But ESPN needs to preserve the ACC deal. They have a partner that is 100% in bed with them. ACC games are going to fill ESPN3 and ESPNU. The conference is willing to play in timeslots where ESPN needs programming and provide reliable ratings.
Resolution: ESPN needs to get Florida State, Clemson and whoever else has wandering eyes in a room together with the rest of the ACC. They need to revise the ACC deal again only this time with some sort of parity clause. Allow that the ACC TV payout will always be within X% of the top conference deal and always X% above the average of the major conferences. This may seem like a huge pill to swallow for ESPN. But instead of getting a discount on ACC games, they should be paying a premium. This is their only exclusive partnership in major college sports. That has value. Whatever money they give up in the deal they will make back in other areas.

Access to the playoff
Issue: The ACC cannot be left out of the playoff. Because the other conferences are aggressive and forward looking, they are dictating the size and shape of the new four-team playoff. ESPN has stated that they want to run and broadcast any playoff. ACC teams are scared less about the bowls and more about never having access to the playoff.
Resolution: If ESPN does want to run that show, they need to provide assurances that ACC will have the same level of access and ability to qualify as the Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12 and SEC.

Third Tier Rights/ACC Network
Issue: Three conferences have their own network and the SEC is about to form one. The ACC is the only "major" conference without one. I don't think ACC fans care about a conference network. I think this issue, like many is about perception and money.
Resolution: If ESPN had to placate Texas by forming the Longhorn Network, they may have to do the same with the ACC.

Since the ACC does a terrible job championing their own case, let me sum up all the facts and hope that ESPN steps back and sees what is at stake.
Facts
1. In similar timeslots on ESPN Networks, ACC Football delivers bigger ratings than Big XII or Pac 12 games.
2. If Florida State and any other schools leave the ACC, ESPN will have to pay more for their TV rights AND have less content (as some of those games will move to FOX or other cable channels).
3. The PAC 12 has taken back first tier rights. An expanded Big XII will try to do the same. CBS has first tier rights to the SEC. The Big Ten's deal is up in 2016. They will attempt to take back first tier rights too. The only conference where ESPN controls first tier rights is with the ACC. As ESPN sees the best games moved off of their channels to others, a strong ACC led by Florida State is a great insurance policy. If ESPN doesn't act, all the good Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke and North Carolina games will be on other networks.

The ACC created this mess, but ESPN gladly signed them up for deals that they knew were undermarket. No one ever wants to fork over more money when they don't have to. I don't expect ESPN to save the day this time around...and that probably means the end of the ACC as we know it. Hopefully someone in Bristol will see what needs to be done and protect their investment in the ACC.

Key quotes from New York Times article on conference shakeup

I still think reactions to the Big XII-SEC Bowl game was overblown. I found Pete Thamel's article the most evenhanded. Here are a few bits that stood out to me:

The Big 12, which has 10 teams, will eventually want to grow back to 12. Florida State would pine to keep its football relevance. (The twist, of course, is that the A.C.C.’s national irrelevance can basically be traced to the struggles of Florida State and Miami, which could be the top targets to be poached.) Don’t expect any major moves until a playoff plan is settled.

The ACC has options and some leverage. If Florida State bails before the playoff plan is laid out, that is on them. I hope the ACC is acting aggressively. I am less concerned with money and most concerned with playoff access.

This union will probably create tiers of college football. The four-team playoff that has been discussed would make up the first tier. The next tier would be this game, known as the Champions Bowl, and the Rose Bowl. While neither game would have the cachet of the national semifinal and national title games, they could be put in favorable time slots on New Year’s Day and considered the best leftovers.

This new bowl is essentially the NIT. Why would Florida State leave over access to the NIT? If it is a money issue, the ACC can form a new bowl too. Play the No. 2/No. 3 Big Ten team in the Meadowlands every year. On at FedexField! We have access to big markets and big stadiums. This is not a big deal if cooler heads prevail.

The ACC has made some short sighted deals and seen its best teams play lousy football on the biggest stages. That's in the past. If we get out-maneuvered on these deals, then its on the ACC to join the have nots and the NCAA to form a true playoff.

Not caring about the latest conference speculation and other links

Heights and Lows found bro'd out Eagle hat a few weeks ago. It's Friday. It's graduation weekend. It's time to celebrate, so I figured it was time to bust out the bro hat.

The Big XII and SEC announced a bowl game and generated another round of the ACC's sky is falling/Florida State is leaving event hand handwringing. As I tweeted, I am not worried. The playoffs will expand and will include other teams. There is just too much money left on the table for it not to happen.

Spaz had good things to say to HD. She also thinks Rettig will adapt well to the new system.

Steve Flynn -- an invited football walkon from Central Massachusetts -- is having a strong baseball season.

Mizzou move good news for ACC and other links

While the ACC has come out stronger in the latest expansion shuffle, there was still the 14th SEC slot hanging out there waiting to be filled. If the ACC lost one of its teams to the SEC, it would have a ripple effect that would impact BC. Now it looks like Missouri is finally SEC bound. That should leave the ACC as is for at least another round of TV contracts. It also means no UConn and no Notre Dame in the ACC for now. I expect that once the SEC is officially done (for now), the revised ACC-ESPN TV deal will be announced.

Former Eagle Anthony DiCosmo is now a Vice President with Nickelodeon. Glad to see him doing well. I can't even imagine the hype that would have surrounded him had internet recruiting existed in the 1990s. He was a huge talent.

I see what Heights and Lows did here. They talk about our history with Virginia Tech and where it falls in the new conference and make a slightly passive suggestion that Pitt and VT should have a cross division game instead of BC. They use geography as an excuse. Why not just say it plainly: we don't want to play Virginia Tech every year! I am on board with that.

Should BC explore independence?

With another conference shuffle looming and BC's position totally up in the air, I started to wonder if BC should explore football independence. We spent the majority of our history as an independent and now -- with new media solutions and an influx of cash -- football independence is actually an option again. The issues as always are about money and perception. Could BC improve our football revenue as an independent and would independence make us more or less relevant? Keep those questions in mind as we look at all the considerations for independence.

Basketball and non-revenue sports
If BC were to go independent in football, we would still need a conference for all of our other sports. Fortunately we have a logical home -- the current basketball schools in the Big East. While not as lucrative as the ACC hoops schools, this would still be a relevant basketball conference. Plus we have a lot of history with all of them and they are all in our geographic footprint. This would be like playing in the original Big East.

Football scheduling
This might not be as bad as you might think. Assume the indies would all stick together, that means that Notre Dame, BYU, Army, Navy and Texas would be on the slate on an annual or near annual basis. Then assume we book long series with UMass and Syracuse. Then BC could lock in a mix of two elite BCS schools every year and a few middle of the pack BCS schools every year. It would obviously involve a lot more work and deal making than we currently need, but I think a home schedule of ND, UMass, Navy, Syracuse, Michigan, UNH and Wake Forest would sell as well as next year's schedule of Notre Dame, Rhode Island, Army, Clemson, Miami, Maryland, and Virginia Tech.

TV revenue
Huge unknown here. BC has produced consistently strong ratings and is in a major media market. On the flipside though, BC is not a national brand. Would ESPN or one of its competitors pay $15 million or more for BC's home games? I could see Comcast New England paying a big fee for the rights and sharing the distribution with Versus/NBC Cable for the bigger games. These conversations should be had, but BC should never make a serious move without some hard assurances on the value of the deal.

Postseason football
Losing access to the BCS or the ACC's bowl slots might be a big deal to other schools, but it shouldn't be for BC. We will never get prime bowls in any conference. If we were to go independent we could string together a series of invites to the San Franciscos and San Diegos of the world just like Army and Navy do now. Also, while in theory the ACC provides us a path to the BCS, being independent might be as viable. As an independent we could pad our schedule Boise State style and only win one or two games against top teams to earn respect and computer rankings.

Recruiting
This is where I think BC would take the biggest risk. BYU and Notre Dame have natural pipelines they can use to recruit. While BC has succeeded with the same type of kid for decades, I think not having a conference affiliation would hurt our sales pitch. Right now we sell top level football with a top level education. As in independent that pitch becomes a bit hollow unless we are really kicking ass.

Conclusion
If I knew BC was willing to employ an aggressive style of play and smart scheduling, I think independence could work. But the reality is that our current leadership wouldn't embrace this type of risk. There is a level of safety in a conference even if it means playing with a bunch of schools we left seven years ago. In the end our reputation and TV market will always keep us in the game. Let's hope we like how this iteration of musical chairs plays out.

Conference Shuffle 2011: Where is BC's best home?

With Texas and Texas A&M fighting over the new Longhorn Network, it looks like another conference reshuffle might happen soon. Add in the Pac 12's bold new TV plan and it makes sense for the SEC, Big Ten and Pac 12 to all expand to 16 teams. The question then becomes which 16 and how can BC position itself for the future. I foresee three scenarios. None are great, but let me know what you think.

1. Current ACC + 4 new members
This is my ideal setup. It keeps BC with enough like-minded schools. We wouldn't be overwhelmed by the competition and would probably result in a new ACC TV network. The downside is we would probably have to add schools we don't care for like UConn, Rutgers or West Virginia. But this future would provide the most continuity, stability and keep us where we belong academically and geographically.

2. BC joins the Big Ten
This might be the most far fetched, but I think it is much more realistic than people suspect. As I've said before the Big Ten would want TV markets, respectable sports and academics. BC provides all three. We would also add a boost to the fledgling Big Ten Hockey Conference. This would take a lot of political maneuvering and we would really have to sell the Big Ten on why BC makes more sense than some of their other candidates. But if the Big Ten added Notre Dame, Rutgers and Syracuse, BC would fit in well. That combination would also assure the Big Ten of the northeast TV markets.

3. BC joins the ACC and Big East leftovers.
This is my fear. In this scenario a few of the ACC's top football programs defect to the SEC and we are left to backfill with the Big East. Although if these dominoes fall, I think the Big East backfill could be teams like USF and UConn as opposed to Pitt or even a Rutgers. It would probably be a good basketball conference, but I don't think it would get much respect from the football media or our fanbase.

There are plenty of ifs in all of this. My focus is always on what is best for BC. Ultimately, I think the status quo. Unfortunately the status quo never lasts in college sports. We need a conference where we can compete, keep up with top revenue producers and stay relevant. I think aligning ourselves with Big Ten is the best bet. But will they want us?

Things still uncertain in our old home

The surprising thing about the conference shuffle is that you didn't see many posts or articles calling for BC to rejoin the Big East. The "BC back to the Big East" meme is a favorite of the old timers in the media and the spitballing Big East bloggers. This time around everyone assumed the Big East was going to collapse, so BC moving back wasn't even relevant. And it now appears that BC is in a stable, protected conference at least until the next TV contract. Our old conference, the Big East, remains in turmoil. Here is an excellent State of the Conference from USF bloggers Voodoo Five (HT BCI). I feel sorry for Pitt, Syracuse and even Rutgers. They were all poised for bigger and better things and now are back in conference purgatory. The ACC is not perfect, but it's home.

Dust settles on conference expansion for now

Since Texas is staying put, it looks like the conference shake up business is settling down. A few mid majors might move to fill out slots in the Pac 10 or Big XII, but BC is not going anywhere. This is really the best news we could have hoped for. We are part of an ACC with a better TV deal and can continue to grow our ACC roots. If anything, the what if game just reaffirmed we are where we belong. The thought of playing West Virginia again or UConn annually seemed to upset most BC fans (it did this one). The ACC is not perfect and I don't think we will ever be appreciated there, but it is our home...for now.

So how long will this peace last? I only see two things that could force BC's hand.

1. Notre Dame decides to join a conference. This would have a ripple effect across the whole landscape. If the Irish ever decide to join a conference, you can be sure that BC would be rumored to follow. If they went to the Big Ten we would be listed as an appeasement (Catholic, private, rival). If they went to the Big East you would hear talk of us "coming home."

2. The BCS conferences break away from the NCAA. I think the issue is too complicated because of the non-revenue sports. But if the NCAA starts a DIA playoff, you know the BCS conferences would talk of doing their own thing.

Just when I think I am done, media fires up Big Ten talk

I don't think BC will ever get a Big Ten invite, but it has to be mentioned that today three different articles all picked BC as the best candidate for the Big Ten. Interestingly two of the articles are built on the idea that Notre Dame would be the 13th Big Ten team and we would be their "partner" at 14. Who says that only BC fans consider this a rivalry.

First this short bit from the Courier Post in south Jersey.

The school to go after would be Boston College.

That would bring the Boston TV market to the Big Ten Network and add an instant rivalry. In addition to Notre Dame-Michigan, Notre Dame-Michigan St. and Notre Dame-Purdue, you’d also have Notre Dame-Boston College. And remember, Penn State-Notre Dame has had its moments, too.

Then there was this profile from an Iowa paper. Every one keeps mentioning the academics, but I think that aspect is overblown. If the Big Ten was making decisions based purely on academics they would have invited Mizzou before Nebraska.

This article is all about Notre Dame, but sees BC as a key chip in luring the Irish in.

The conference would then add a 14th school - I vote for Boston College, which would draw the Boston market and add a natural rivalry to entice Notre Dame - and be done with expansion. No need to add Rutgers, Maryland or Missouri if Notre Dame is already on board.

As I keep saying, we are not going to the Big Ten, but it is refreshing to hear BC praised. At times it feels like we are unappreciated in the ACC.

More conference shake up thoughts

With Colorado officially in the Pac 10 and Nebraska all but certain to join the Big Ten, the national game of musical chairs has begun. Although rarely mentioned, BC is a player in all of this. We have a great (yet not threatening) combination of TV/sports/academics. We have ties to the ACC, the Big East and Notre Dame. BC would be a nice piece to any conference, but where will we land? Here is my speculation and thoughts on some of the players and issues at hand.

BC to the Big Ten?
While this is not a strong rumor like "Rutgers to the Big Ten" or "Mizzou to the Big Ten" there are still some whispers about it. If the Big Ten wants to reach that deep into the northeast and hit up as many TV homes as possible, I could see their interest. But I think the Big Ten will approach at least five other schools before they come to BC. If the Big Ten did approach BC, I think we would have to go. The money alone is reason enough, but the long term security of being in the premiere athletic conference makes sense. However, I wonder if our leadership would be willing to go down that path again...

Father Leahy and Gene D
I don't know if many BC fans understand the personal and professional pain Father Leahy and Gene went through during the ACC expansion. They both bet their careers and legacies on the move. They were vilified in public by supposed friends and former colleagues and were sued personally. We and they are fortunate it all worked out. Now it is time again for more politically jockeying and backroom dealing. Are these two still game? If BC were to do something bold like ditch the ACC for the Big Ten, we would look like the biggest money hungry, disloyal school in the country? And Gene would be called every greed inspired insult in the book. I don't think this will become an issue since I don't think the Big Ten will come calling, but our leadership and their willingness to play ball this time around is a factor.

Where do we want to be?
I think given all that could happen, BC would prefer to stay in the ACC in its present configuration. If the ACC falls apart or starts to seriously lag behind the other conferences in revenue, then things could change.

ESPN, The SEC and The ACC
The only way the ACC falls apart is if the SEC raids the conference. As regular readers know, I feared raid as recently as this week. Now not as much. This is all speculation on my part, but I think the logic holds. SEC Commissioner Mike Slive has admitted that their deal with ESPN does allow for more money if the SEC expands. But I imagine ESPN must have protected itself with a provision regarding who they would be willing to pay more for. You have to assume ESPN is not willing to pay a premium for content it already has. So I could see why they would pay more if the SEC secured Texas or Texas A&M. ESPN doesn't have an all inclusive deal with the Big 12, so those programs would be considered new content. However, the ACC and ESPN are already in bed together. ESPN owns it all. Why would they suddenly be willing to pay more for FSU or Miami? Surely they won't let the SEC hold them up like that. Also, ESPN's new deal with the ACC is indirect incentive for the network to keep the ACC whole. If the ACC is raided, ESPN's ACC inventory would be in jeopardy. The Pac 16 and Big 10 have or will have their own cable networks. They are independent of ESPN. There are no other players out there for ESPN to "partner" with. For better or worse, the SEC, ACC and ESPN are all intertwined. If they SEC expands now, I don't see it being at the ACC and ESPN's expense.

If the ACC is raided
Then we are back looking at a leftover conference filled with the remnants of the Big East, Big 12 and ACC. This would probably still be a BCS conference, but it would lack in geographic, institutional, historic and economic relevancy. This would probably be the worst case scenario, but we would survive. We could potentially be a big fish in this small pond, but the money and marketing lost would hurt the athletic department long term.

What do I think will happen
The situations keep changing, but right now I actually think the ACC will be okay. I think we stay at 12 teams and don't lose any members. I don't know how long that will last, but my guess is another five years. Eventually a playoff will come and things will get reshuffled again.

Baseball beats Dartmouth and other links

The baseball team used their make up date with Dartmouth to help improve their record. The 10-4 win moved the Eagles to 28-23. They will play another non-conference game on Tuesday against St. John's.

The Ravens are giving McLaughlin a shot as a fullback. Hopefully he makes it. The odds are not in his favor since he is learning a new position at the highest level. The flipside is that they must like him as a long snapper and special teamer and think moving him to a thin part of the roster is a way to keep him on.

This is a terrible article about expansion trying to play it smart. The only reason I am noting it is because it continues to use the "BC is an afterthought in Boston" theme as an excuse to call our move to the ACC a mistake. What all these guys fail to realize is that staying in the Big East would have generated less interest in BC within Boston and although we don't dominate the Boston market like some colleges dominate their tiny markets, we are a consistent ratings winner. And our ratings in Boston and nationally mean more than scoring a 91 in a four-tier TV market does for some of these other schools.

How do you want the Expansion to play out?

One way or another, the Big Ten will expand. Whatever happens there will be a domino effect on all the other conferences. How much things change is unknown. I really only see three potential solutions for BC. All are listed below. Take a look and let me know which path you want taken.

1. The Status Quo. In this scenario all the other conferences shuffle yet the ACC remains as is. This will only happen if the new ACC TV deal is very strong. If it falls short of what Big Ten and SEC schools make then all the current ACC teams will listen and explore new conferences. My ideal ending would be for BC to remain with the current roster of ACC teams in a 12 team conference. I don't think this will happen. I just don't see the ACC putting together any sort of package that is as lucrative as the Big Ten's cable network.

2. BC joins the Big Ten. In my opinion this is the longest of long shots, but the continued floating of BC as a potential Big Ten target keeps the idea alive. While we don't fit the Big Ten's profile, I could see why they would want BC. We deliver good TV ratings (despite the national perception), have a strong history in multiple sports and bring a very good academic profile. We would be a fish out of water in the Big Ten, but we would be a very rich fish out of water. I would support a move to the Big Ten but don't see it happening for a variety of reasons. The Big Ten has all the cards in this scenario, so why would they take a risk on BC when they could take a better fit like Mizzou?

3. BC becomes part of the Big-ACC. This involves the post raid ACC and Big East teams getting together to form some sort of East Coast Conference. If this happens, I assume that the ACC has been striped of some of its marquis programs (FSU? North Carolina? Clemson?) and the Big East teams looking for partners are programs we want no part of (UConn, WVU). Although we could ascend to the top of this conference, I think public perception would be very low. Would the casual BC fan be excited? Would the conference be able to generate serious TV revenue? I doubt it. Unfortunately this is the most likely scenario. We would remain in a BCS conference and remain playing East Coast teams, but that would be the only benefit. This would feel like a mid major afterthought.