Ranking BC among the Musical Chairs participants

Maryland is gone and no one thinks this is that last move. If BC wants to stay a player in college athletics, we better put on our best dancing shoes and get ready for some wheeling and dealing.

Let's assume we are really headed towards four 16 team Super Conferences. That leaves two remaining spots in the Big Ten, two remaining spots in the SEC, six in the Big 12 and four in the Pac 12. That is 14 teams that could move. There are now 14 teams in the ACC. Conceivably the conference could dissolve and all the current ACC members could find other homes. We all know it won't be that clean and we also know that the Big East and MWC teams are fighting for those same spots. 

BC does have some value. As Maryland and Rutgers just proved, this is more about cable subscribers than sports. BC still sits squarely in the seventh largest TV market in the country. A college network could never charge as much as NESN does in the New England area, but even getting a 25% of NESN's fees would be a huge revenue boone for any conference. We also brings a solid athletic and academic reputation. Plus we are non-threatening. If anything these Super Conferences are looking for a bunch of Washington Generals who happen to have good cable potential. BC could fill that need. 

The SEC is not going to come calling, so really our only non-ACC options are the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the Pac 12. (I will get into the geographic issues of the Pac 12 and Big 12 later.)

Big Ten

If the Big Ten were to expand and follow the same motivations they just established with Rutgers and Maryland, this would be their order of preference:

1. Notre Dame

2. North Carolina

3. Virginia

4. Florida State

5. Virginia Tech

6. BC

7. Duke

8. Georgia Tech

I don't think the Big Ten wants Louisville, UConn or any Big 12 team (other than Texas). If they did want them, they would have already taken them. Being sixth on their list doesn't seem like a good place to be, but you have to consider that ND, UNC, UVA, FSU and Virginia Tech will all have multiple options. The Big Ten money might be attractive, but culturally and geographically they might fit better in the SEC or Big 12 and get the same money. 

In this game BC needs to be flexible and keep dialogue and options open, but if the ACC unravels, we need to focus on the Big Ten. We would be a oddball there, but it would still be the best of the remaining fits.

SEC

The SEC is never coming for BC. Ever. And it would be a terrible fit for us.

Big 12

The Big 12 is intriguing because they need money and teams to keep up with the other conferences. They are very Texas-centric and a seemingly odd fit for BC, but if they went to 16 teams and had a "Northeast Division" of West Virginia, Pitt, BC and Syracuse, it wouldn't seem all that odd to us. I doubt their expansion would be that clean and simple either. All indications are that their first move would be to get the southern football powers. The northeast TV markets would be second.

1. Notre Dame

2. Florida State

3. North Carolina

4. Virginia Tech

5. Virginia 

6. Georgia Tech

7. Duke

8. NC State

9.Clemson

10. BC

11. Syracuse

12. Miami

13. Pitt

This is where things get dicey. This conference has six spots and we would probably be their 10th choice. But I have some belief that if Notre Dame or UNC were really determined to leave, they would not move to the Big 12, leaving spots open for a place like BC.

Pac 12

In 2010 Pac 12 (then Pac 10) commissioner Larry Scott wanted to partner with the ACC to form a national college cable channel. He was rebuffed. That will be a move that haunts the ACC for years, as Scott got his cable deal and the ACC is left scrambling. The conference realignment could bring new life to Scott's old idea. All he needs is an eastern outpost for his Pac 12 channel.

It might seem like the Pac 12 would want closer teams, but once you go to 16, you can start creating regional pods or divisions within the conference.

1. Notre Dame

2. North Carolina

3. Duke

4. Florida State

5. BC

6. Virginia

7. Virginia Tech

8. Miami

9. Syracuse

10. NC State

It might surprise some that I think we are the 5th most attractive ACC program to the Pac 12, but that is based purely on our TV numbers in San Francisco and Los Angeles. If the Pac 12 decides to do something as extreme as an East Coast division, it will be about TV numbers.

What's next

I don't know but the SEC has a TV deal coming up and the sudden urge to be bigger than the Big Ten. They will come to the ACC. Then it becomes a matter of who leaves. From there, it will be more dominoes. There is enough room for BC, but we need our new leadership working every angle. 

Reading the tea leaves on Big Ten hockey

The BCI crew took note of Penn State adding hockey and how it will impact BC. Their fear is that the money generated by Big Ten hockey via the Big Ten Network would give those six schools a huge advantage over traditional power conferences like the Hockey East. I actually think Big Ten Hockey helps BC. Let me explain:

-- The Big Ten is not done expanding. Despite the relative calm now that they've added Nebraska, I don't believe the Big Ten is done expanding. The Big XII is still in a precarious position as is the Big East and the Big Ten is in the catbird seat because of their TV money. When the next conference shuffle comes, the Big Ten will be influencing much of who goes where.
-- If hockey becomes a focus of the Big Ten Network, hockey programs will be needed too. Football will always drive the conversation and the network's revenue. Basketball is next. But hockey could become a lucrative staple of the cable network. So in looking for expansion candidates, you will be hard to pressed to find someone who does all three better than BC. What candidate, other than Notre Dame, would offer the Big Ten those three elements?
-- BC is still a better TV play than most schools out there.
Our ratings are strong on a local level and on a national level (for a non traditional power). The Big Ten has little market presence in New England or on New England cable systems (as a premium channel). BC would help on that front.

Now, I don't think the Big Ten officials are huddled in Chicago thinking "how can we get BC to defect?." They would never add us as a stand alone 13th team. But the hockey factor makes us that much more attractive as a school that might join with one or three other universities.

Despite our comfort in the ACC and being a founding member of Hockey East, BC would certainly entertain the idea. I know Father Leahy and Gene D dread the idea of going through another conference shuffle, but they also fear the idea of BC being part of a leftover conference. Money is important to the school but so is association. If we can have a financially stable conference and still be associated with Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia, etc, I think BC would gladly stay put. But if BC is left in a conference with the Big East retreads, the school wouldn't think twice about joining the Big Ten.

Just when I think I am done, media fires up Big Ten talk

I don't think BC will ever get a Big Ten invite, but it has to be mentioned that today three different articles all picked BC as the best candidate for the Big Ten. Interestingly two of the articles are built on the idea that Notre Dame would be the 13th Big Ten team and we would be their "partner" at 14. Who says that only BC fans consider this a rivalry.

First this short bit from the Courier Post in south Jersey.

The school to go after would be Boston College.

That would bring the Boston TV market to the Big Ten Network and add an instant rivalry. In addition to Notre Dame-Michigan, Notre Dame-Michigan St. and Notre Dame-Purdue, you’d also have Notre Dame-Boston College. And remember, Penn State-Notre Dame has had its moments, too.

Then there was this profile from an Iowa paper. Every one keeps mentioning the academics, but I think that aspect is overblown. If the Big Ten was making decisions based purely on academics they would have invited Mizzou before Nebraska.

This article is all about Notre Dame, but sees BC as a key chip in luring the Irish in.

The conference would then add a 14th school - I vote for Boston College, which would draw the Boston market and add a natural rivalry to entice Notre Dame - and be done with expansion. No need to add Rutgers, Maryland or Missouri if Notre Dame is already on board.

As I keep saying, we are not going to the Big Ten, but it is refreshing to hear BC praised. At times it feels like we are unappreciated in the ACC.

How do you want the Expansion to play out?

One way or another, the Big Ten will expand. Whatever happens there will be a domino effect on all the other conferences. How much things change is unknown. I really only see three potential solutions for BC. All are listed below. Take a look and let me know which path you want taken.

1. The Status Quo. In this scenario all the other conferences shuffle yet the ACC remains as is. This will only happen if the new ACC TV deal is very strong. If it falls short of what Big Ten and SEC schools make then all the current ACC teams will listen and explore new conferences. My ideal ending would be for BC to remain with the current roster of ACC teams in a 12 team conference. I don't think this will happen. I just don't see the ACC putting together any sort of package that is as lucrative as the Big Ten's cable network.

2. BC joins the Big Ten. In my opinion this is the longest of long shots, but the continued floating of BC as a potential Big Ten target keeps the idea alive. While we don't fit the Big Ten's profile, I could see why they would want BC. We deliver good TV ratings (despite the national perception), have a strong history in multiple sports and bring a very good academic profile. We would be a fish out of water in the Big Ten, but we would be a very rich fish out of water. I would support a move to the Big Ten but don't see it happening for a variety of reasons. The Big Ten has all the cards in this scenario, so why would they take a risk on BC when they could take a better fit like Mizzou?

3. BC becomes part of the Big-ACC. This involves the post raid ACC and Big East teams getting together to form some sort of East Coast Conference. If this happens, I assume that the ACC has been striped of some of its marquis programs (FSU? North Carolina? Clemson?) and the Big East teams looking for partners are programs we want no part of (UConn, WVU). Although we could ascend to the top of this conference, I think public perception would be very low. Would the casual BC fan be excited? Would the conference be able to generate serious TV revenue? I doubt it. Unfortunately this is the most likely scenario. We would remain in a BCS conference and remain playing East Coast teams, but that would be the only benefit. This would feel like a mid major afterthought.

Expansion overload and other links

David Glenn -- who I like -- is the latest ACC guy to write about the impact of expansion on our new conference. Glenn talked to a representative of every ACC school and came away thinking the conference is secure. In the article I linked he explained his reasoning. I still think we are in the poker stage. I have no doubt every school has talked to a third party about joining the Big Ten or the SEC. (In BC's case it would probably have been the Big Ten.) I also doubt that any would turn down a chance to move because the windfall is so big. Until the ACC has either its own cable channel to rival the Big Ten or a megadeal from ESPN, we can be poached.

On the recruiting front, BC is in the mix for Paul Gaughan.

Hofstra should do everything in its power to hire Skinner. My guess is that Al would rather wait for a bigger job to open next year.

Deep in this article is a mention of Tanner McEvoy and his interest in BC. Warren Ball is another potential BC guy.

Ayla Brown is the latest young BC grad to get a network TV slot. She'll bring her youthful perspective to CBS's morning show.

BC baseball put their rough weekend behind them and beat Northeastern tonight.

Yet another Big Ten mention and other links

Although I've weighed in on the message boards, I haven't spent much blog space talking about the implications of the Big Ten expansion on BC. Today ESPN Big Ten Blogger Adam Rittenberg slipped in another BC mention when discussing expansion. I don't think BC will ever join the Big Ten, but I feel the coming game of conference musical chairs will hit us in a big way. Hopefully we will come out ahead again, but I have a feeling that some of the former Big East laughing stocks might end up with the last laugh. Rittenberg rightly points out that Big Ten expansion is all about cable households. Not ratings. Not tradition. Certainly not sports. Therefore Rutgers and Syracuse might luck into huge pay days purely because the Big Ten wants households in those states. They are not as concerned with ratings or those programs' successes. Just the right to charge cable subscribers in New York and New Jersey and additional $1.10. If the Big Ten were to reach out to BC on those same grounds, we should listen. I don't think they will though. Aside from envying their pay day, BC might also suffer if the SEC expands and cherry picks a few ACC programs leaving our current home weaker. With all of this going on, I hope the ACC is moving forward with some sort of cable network plan (like the previously rumored ACC-PAC 10 cable network). A cable network like the Big Ten is the only way to secure long term stability. If the ACC doesn't put up some walls around the conference and assure members of future revenue streams, the leftover ACC teams will end up in some ugly conference with the leftover Big East schools. Stay tuned.

New commit Kieran Borcich sounds like the right mix of athlete and scholar.

HD likes how our ACC schedule plays out next season.

Todd McShay is another guy who thinks Castonzo will be a high draft pick next season.

BC-Michigan in ACC Challenge and other links

BC played went to Ann Arbor two years ago as part of the ACC Challenge. Neither team was particularly good and the game was shunned off to an early ESPN U start. Next season BC will travel to Ann Arbor again only this time it will probably be one of the featured games of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Here are the other matchups.

Although none of the marquee sports earned recognition, numerous BC teams scored very high on the NCAA's APR report.

Former Eagle Tim Ceglarski stepped down as Elmira's coach.

Sean Ryan signed with the Chiefs.

BC is in the mix for Maryland LB Troy Gloster.

BC vs The Big Ten

One of the benefits of bowl season is seeing various matchups that don't occur during the regular season. Michigan State-BC is one of those matchups. We've only played the Spartans five times, most recently in 1995. BC has never faced a Big Ten team in a bowl game. In fact, I was surprised by how rarely we play Big Ten teams. Considering we were independent for much of our history, you would think we would have served as a schedule filler with these midwest powers. This just shows that these schools have been lightening their load for decades. Of the current Big Ten schools, we have never played Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue nor Wisconsin in football. The following is our record against the Big Ten schools we have faced.

-- Indiana 1-0

-- Michigan 0-4

-- Michigan State 3-1-1

-- Northwestern 1-2

-- Ohio State 0-3

-- Penn State 4-19 (BC has only played Penn State twice since the Lions joined the Big 10)