What I know and what I think

Things have been relatively quiet on the coaching search front. Most of what you are hearing is speculation. For the first time that I can remember, BC fans have gotten into the flight tracking game and it appears there was a flight earlier in the week that went to Cincinnati. That would make sense as it would allow Jarmond and his small crew of BC folks to talk to Luke Fickell, Jeff Hafley and potentially Al Washington. From there we have no idea where the BC crew went.

Things I know
-- There are plenty of names that at least got looked at and/or reached out that have not been posted anywhere. Also more NFL names than people realize. I know some are concerned about the NFL and the signing period, but many coaches have made the transition and usually an NFL team will let the coach recruit while still finishing out the NFL season.
-- There has been lots of discussion of salary among BC fans. BC has enough to pay a new coach. The challenge is always do we pay enough for the coaching and support staff. Supposedly that has been addressed and will not be an issue with the new guy.
-- Don't believe that anyone is close and could be done this week (like some have speculated). Father Leahy is not involved in the search process, but will meet with the finalists. That hasn't happened yet.
-- This is probably the best coaching cycle timing we've ever had. There aren't many openings and there is no opening even comparable to BC. Even a guy who seems to have plenty of options and zero fit with BC, like Mike Norvell, has interest. In part to get leverage but also because our job is viewed as an opportunity. It is relatively low pressure and you can win at BC. While the other jobs like Arkansas or FSU pay more, they also come with huge expectations. Even a place like Mizzou fired their .500 coach after four years. We gave Addazio seven.

Speculation
Army coach Jeff Monken's name floated up Wednesday. Monken has done well at West Point, but he would not even come close to Jarmond's idea of a retool vs a rebuild. Going to option football would be a total revamp. And if Monken ditched the option, then you are taking a big risk that he can adapt from the scheme he has built his entire career on. I doubt he gets the job.

Buckle Up: Coaching Search 2019!

Addazio is gone. Gunnell is the interim. Jarmond is leading a search. That's what everyone knows. This is what I've been told.

Addazio

The writing was on the wall a long time ago. But things have been falling apart behind the scenes since the Kansas game. You saw testiness from the staff online and even behind closed doors (an alleged assistant fight). Addazio didn't know if he would be fired for certain, but that was the rumor going around the team after Notre Dame. BC also granted Rutgers permission to talk to Addazio, so that also sent a message. 

Gunnell

While they could have gone in many different ways with the staff, Gunnell was a relatively safe pick. He can focus on recruiting between now and the bowl (mostly keeping verbals committed) and let the coordinators get ready for the bowl game. He is well liked by all and will be a very likely candidate to stay on with the new coach. 

The Search

Lots of names have been floated by Feldman and Thamel. Most are predictable and are close to what I have heard. The only name that I think will get a real look that wasn't floated out by those two is Bret Bielema. While there have been feelers and guys who have been reached out to, nothing is even close to being done and no one has had a formal interview. That will start soon (probably later this week). Father Leahy has traditionally been a Wild Card in these events with regards to budgets and approvals, but supposedly he is truly going to let Jarmond run the show (see the wording in the press release).

The Al Washington stuff is pure gossip or speculation. Al might end up being the guy, but this wasn't predetermined and it certainly won't be decided early this week. The Al/Don Brown package is also not a thing. 

If I were betting, I would predict Jeff Hafley but this process never settles on the first hot name (see Mark Whipple, Jack Bicknell Jr or Bob Diaco).

Steve Addazio

When he was hired I said Addazio would turn out to be a "rah rah" version of TOB. He never even did that. The coach deserves our thanks for rebuilding after the Spaz disaster, but we had passed the time to move on. BC can be great and can certainly be better than we've been. It is up to Martin Jarmond and our new coach to get us there.

Now what?

Before I start, as a reminder, this will be a decision between Martin Jarmond and Father Leahy. Everything you hear or read on twitter or message boards is gossip or speculation. I don't know what Jarmond is thinking. I do know that he does have to sell his decision to Father Leahy. Firing a bowl-bound coach makes a lot of sense to many of us. I have no idea if it makes sense to our president.

Here are some things that are not speculation. I think all are relevant:

-- Addazio's current deal and buyout are very manageable. 

-- Rutgers has permission to talk to Addazio, however, reports out of New Jersey say that Rutgers and Schiano are close to a deal.

-- Many agents think the job will open. 

-- Many BC staffers think a change is coming.

-- Many players think a change is coming.

Speculation from me

I think Jarmond wants to make a change. He knows the team has underachieved the past two seasons. He also knows that he will need to make a major hire for his own resume. However, the basketball situation complicates things. I don't know if Jarmond has the political capital or the desire to change both coaches in the same school year. If he is justifying a change, Christian is the easier decision (and he also has a BC-friendly buyout). 

If a change is made, it will be soon. BC won't know its bowl status for a week and is guaranteed a spot via the ACC. It doesn't need Addazio to get invited to a bowl. 

I am going to say there is a change coming but I am just guessing.

The tricky balance of "fit" when making a coaching hire

Fit is very important in college football. There are unique institutional and regional challenges to every job and if a coach is not prepared for those challenges, he is constantly battling up hill. For recent examples you can look at Chris Ash never connecting with New Jersey high school coaches and their recruits at Rutgers or the already awkward relationship between Joe Moorhead and the Mississippi State fanbase.

But you have to be careful when considering fit. You don't want to overlook someone just because he hasn't played or coached at your school. For me, I want someone who understands the type of challenges BC faces, but also understands how to leverage its advantages.

But the biggest trap when considering fit is limiting the search to just candidates the fans know. I write this because of the rumors that Al Washington and Don Brown are favorites to replace Addazio. I don't think this is true (for a variety of reasons). I also think it is way premature to assume anyone is the favorite. But even accepting it at facevalue, I think hiring Brown or Washington now would be a huge risk and a sign of a bad process. Are both guys beloved and respected around BC and New England? Yes. But would any other Power 5 school even have them among their final choices? No.

This is also hard for me to write but age is the biggest factor against both. Brown is too old and Washington is too young.

Brown will be 65 this summer. While he seems to have the energy of a younger man and seems to relate to young players, these jobs are a real grind that will wear even the best. Plus his age will be used against BC over and over in recruiting. Could he do it? Sure. But is he the guy to take BC to the next level? I don't think so. And I think we can do better this time around.

Washington is 35, which while young, isn't a deal breaker. But Washington's resume lacks any coordinator experience. He has never managed a game and never hired a staff. It would be a huge unknown. I like that he has been getting experience away from BC, but he still hasn't checked all the boxes.

If either of these guys are hired, they will have my support. I just don't think it is the right time for either and would be a sign that the searched prized BCness over everything else.

BC-Pitt preview

Under normal circumstances all the gossip about Addazio to Rutgers or the pressure he has at BC would be a major distraction. I actually don't think it is a big deal. The players and staff have known about Addazio's Hot Seat all season. At this point they are used to it. If anything, they know that this game is important for everyone but Addazio. They need to win to keep playing. They need to impress future coaches. This won't be about Addazio. It will be about this group fighting for one more game.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is an outside chance that BC could play in a bowl even if they lose this game. IF not enough teams qualify for bowls, the empty slots are then filled with teams with the best APR. Right now Duke holds the first spot. BC is No. 2. This remains a long shot, but it could happen. I would prefer to just win, but more BC football is always welcome.

Three Simple Keys
1. Scoring before the half. This is directly related to last week but it was a problem for the whole Addazio era. He has wasted time and possessions over and over. This is probably his last game. Try to be smart.
2. Grosel using his feet. There will be plenty of chances for him to run. He needs to be smart and convert when given the chance.
3. Don't allow big plays. For Pitt, I would prefer a little bend but don't break. Make them work the field and hope for mistakes.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the series 17-12
-- Addazio is 3-3 in season finales
-- BC is 0-2 at Heinz Field
The current line is BC+8.5

Factoid
This is the first time BC has played in Pittsburgh in an ACC game.

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan-Ohio State. Beyond all the BC connections on both sides, there are two names attached to watch: Jeff Hafley and Anthony Campanile. Both will be mentioned for the BC job...probably as early as Monday.

BC is in trouble if...
Pitt stops the running game. Narduzzi is a good defensive coach and will try to make BC one-dimensional. If Pitt controls line and stops the running game, BC will not win.

I hope to see...
A huge day from Dillon. This is probably his final game at BC. He has been great. Unfortunately the team has been forgettable during his three seasons. It would be nice to go out with a big win.

Bottom Line
I think we control the line of scrimmage and Grosel has a big day. The D gets a bit lucky with turnovers and we grind away with the run game in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, Pitt 20

Coaching Candidates: BC Guys

There will be lots of names floated for any BC opening. And with each coaching carousel there are plenty of names mentioned for every opening. However, there will be a few BC-specific names that will at least get a look. These are the sorts of candidates who won't get interviewed at any other P5 jobs and probably wouldn't be considered for BC if not for their alumni status. I would be very surprised if any of these guys got the job, but all might be worth the risk. Getting a true BC guy to take us to the next level would be special.

Mike Reed '95
Defensive Backs Coach, Clemson 
Bio: A player from the Coughlin era, Reed has been in coaching for 18 years. He had a stint coaching in the NFL with Eagles, then worked for TOB at NC State and has been with Dabo in Clemson during their championship run.
Pros: Reed is considered a very good recruiter and is well liked by the BC Football alumni. He works in the ACC. He has been part of one of the most successful college programs of the decade.
Cons: Reed has never been a coordinator and has turned down chances to come back to BC as an assistant (under TOB, Jags and Spaz).
Bottom Line: If Reed was one of Clemson's coordinators, he would already be a Head Coach. Unlike Brent Venables -- who is not particularly polished -- Reed can be the face of a program. The only hole on his resume is the lack of track record of calling a game on one side of the ball.

Pete Carmichael Jr. '94
Offensive Coordinator, New Orleans Saints
Bio: Carmichael is a former BC baseball player and his dad was a football coach at BC under Yukica, Bicknell and Coughlin. He has been the offensive coordinator for one of the NFL's best and most dynamic offenses for a decade. At 12, Pete served as Bicknell's headset/cord guy. That is young Pete getting the headset right after Flutie's Hail Mary.

Pros: The Saints have been innovators at the NFL level, so you assume Carmichael would bring an exciting product and also blend the best of the NFL and college. His NFL pedigree could be an effective recruiting tool.
Cons: Carmichael doesn't call the plays in New Orleans and Payton and Brees tend to get all the credit. He hasn't coached or recruited in college since the '90s.
Bottom Line: Despite expressing interest Carmichael never even got a sniff at the job when Bates fired Spaz. It was surprising then and also remains a bit surprising that he hasn't been given a shot in the NFL.

Marc Colombo '02
Offensive Line Coach, Dallas Cowboys
Pros: He coaches arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. He transitioned seamlessly from his playing career to coaching. The Jones family loves him and there is already speculation that he will be a Cowboys Head Coach one day. He would continue the BC tradition of developing great OLines.
Cons: He has only coached in the NFL and only been an official coach with the Cowboys for three seasons (prior to that he was in their front office). He has no experience recruiting and no experience running one side of the ball.
Bottom Line: Colombo might turn out to be one of those names that has us saying "what if" a decade from now, but if he were to come to BC this year it would be a huge risk. His lack of experience would probably create growing pains that other candidates wouldn't face.

Dominoes fall: Rutgers and Schiano can't reach deal

Rutgers and Greg Schiano couldn't agree to terms and their former coach will not return to the New Jersey school. This impacts BC on two fronts. One, it leaves Schiano as a prime candidate for the BC job. He has plenty of baggage and plenty of detractors, but he will also have some very influential supporters in his corner. I will dive deeper into Schiano this week, but in my opinion, he would be very good at BC.

The second way this could impact BC is Rutgers needing a Plan B. The New Jersey media is already listing two names previously floated for BC: Anthony Campanile and Joe Moorhead. I will go deeper into both of those guys too. But I think ultimately their Plan B will include Steve Addazio. While I don't think interest from Rutgers will change perception of Addazio at BC nor protect him from a firing, having Rutgers hire him away (either pre or post firing) would reduce his BC buyout.

The odds that Schiano ends up at BC and Addazio ends up at Rutgers are very, very slim, but would be a win-win for all.

It's over

I am not breaking news, just combining speculation, rumor and my opinion. Notre Dame blowing out BC was the worst possible outcome for Addazio. He might rally the troops next week and get to a bowl, but this season has more than answered any questions about the direction of the program. It also sent a message to both the diehard and the casual fans. Addazio at his best is a seven win coach and he will never deliver those special moments when BC "shocks the world." It is time for a change.

As we know from last year, these decisions are not simple and straight forward. Could Father Leahy and/or the BOT prevent Jarmond from making a change? Of course. But I don't think there are any real financial barriers nor anyone going to bat for Addazio. It's over.

I will start coaching profiles this week.

BC-Notre Dame preview

This is the last stand for Addazio. Despite what I wrote just last week, I think the mood has changed to the point that beating Pitt next week is not enough. I don't know what Leahy, the Board and Jarmond are feeling, but the fanbase has certainly checked out. Even at a place like BC -- where the fans don't run things -- you can't let your customer base continue to erode. Right now under Addazio, we are on the road to nowhere. It is up to the coach and the players to show the community that we are wrong and there is still fight and hope.

What's on my mind (not TOTALLY related to this game)
Earlier this week Addazio had Ricky Brown, Josh Beekman and Rich Gunnell address the team to tell them the importance and history of this game. I don't think Addazio intended to frustrate long-time fans like me with his actions but it did. Just 15 years ago, this was THE game on the BC calendar. All the fans cared. Many traveled. The media made a big deal of it. The players came out of the locker room with passion and energy. It was great. Now it shows how short institutional memory is that Addazio has to bring in people to remind the ream that this game used to mean something. How about this coach, if you want it to mean something, how about actually win a big game? How about actually play to the level of a ranked opponent? How about comeback when down? How about managing a game in a way that helps your team? If you want it to matter, then win the stinking game! Addazio didn't have an annual game with the Irish built into the schedule like TOB did, but he has done nothing to show that he can upset teams on a consistent basis nor that he can get the team to win games that are of extra importance. Now stop talking. Stop making excuses and go win the damn game.

Three Simple keys
1. Play action passing. The Irish pass D is not good. As much as I believe in sticking with the run, I know that early play action will work and help BC move the ball.
2. Tackling. I don't think the team will suddenly become tackling machines, but we've had an off week. Let's hope they worked on it. One or two more tackles and they would have won the Florida State game.
3. No field goals. Don't bother. The Irish can score. We will need seven instead of missed 3s. Just keep going for it on 4th down.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 4-9 coming off a bye
-- Addazio is 0-2 vs the Irish
-- Addazio is 1-16 vs ranked teams
The current line is BC+20

Factoid
It has been eight years since our last trip to South Bend. That is the longest break in between trips to South Bend since BC began playing there in 1987.

Scoreboard Watching
Nothing really matters at this point. Win a game and we are going bowling. We are only looking at the lowest of the lower tier bowls, so the impact of other ACC teams is minimal.

I hope to see...
The team playing with emotion. If you believe the rumors, the players expect a coaching change. It can be hard to get up for a game at this point in the season if you feel there is nothing on the line. I don't know how they feel about Addazio and if they will want to go "win one for the Gipper" (if you will) but they still have each other and the school. Let's hope they come out ready to play and win the game. Although it might not mean much, it would mean everything in the long run.

BC is in trouble if...
Notre Dame builds a double digit lead in the first half. We all know Addazio's teams are not known for comebacks. I would really be shocked if they came back in this sort of situation.

Bottom Line
Can Notre Dame be beaten? Yes. Can BC score enough on them to win? Yes. But it is going to take a great defensive effort. I don't know if we have that. I also clearly don't trust Addazio to push the right button.
Final Score: Notre Dame 38, BC 24

Perspective on Addazio at BC and among his peers

Tuesday got a little heated on the BC-twittersphere after two different ESPN talking heads started defending Addazio in response to BCI's "fire Addazio" post. The ESPN crew's case for keeping Addazio was weak but the points that hit a nerve were "it is hard to win at BC, we (the fans) are taking seven wins for granted and be careful what you wish for." I spent a long time on Twitter shooting holes in that argument, but I wanted to use this post to provide more perspective.

This is Addazio's seventh season. BC has given him plenty of time to build and shape the program. There has been plenty of time to put one great season together. There have been plenty of games to learn from and adapt. He hasn't and will be very lucky to win seven this year. What he is accomplishing is not impressive when you compare it to his BC peers, his ACC peers and the other coaches hired for the 2013.


Addazio when compared to modern era BC coaches

Addazio is exactly .500 overall (43-43) which ranks fifth out of seven B.C.head coaches hired since 1981. https://t.co/Wz8gaZyblS

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) November 12, 2019

Jeff Jagodzinski -- 2 seasons, .714 Winning Percentage

Tom O'Brien -- 10 seasons, .625 Winning Percentage

Tom Coughlin -- 3 seasons, .614 Winning Percentage
Jack Bicknell -- 10 seasons, .517 Winning Percentage
Steve Addazio -- 7 seasons, .500 Winning Percentage
Dan Henning -- 3 seasons, .458 Winning Percentage

Frank Spaziani -- 4 seasons, .431 Winning Percentage

ACC Coaching Tenure

Another reminder that BC has been patient with Addazio and given him plenty of time is ACC Tenure. Addazio and Dave Doeren are tied for the third most seniority in the conference. Doeren has a very similar record. Dabo obviously has an incredible record. Cutcliffe's run at Duke doesn't look great based on winning percentage, but he has been much better than his predecessors, which is something Addazio can't claim.

David Cutcliffe (12 seasons): 71-77 (ACC record 36-60)

Dabo Swinney (12 seasons): 126-30 (ACC record 75-16) 

Dave Doeren (seven seasons) : 47-39 (ACC record 21-32)

Steve Addazio (seven seasons): 43-43 (ACC record 21-34)

Coaches Hired for the 2013 Season
Finally there is the group of coaches who started at their respective jobs the same time Addazio started his time at BC. Believe it or not, 30 coaches took new FBS jobs that year. Only five still hold that same job. This is how Addazio stacks up among his peers.

Gus Malzahn: 60-29
Skip Holtz:  54-34

Dave Doeren: 47-39

Steve Addazio: 43-43 
Mark Stoops: 40-44

Once again, BC appears patient. 25 other teams who made changes entering the 2013 season have changed again. BC is still employing Addazio and he has the the second worst record of the remaining coaches (and one could argue Mark Stoops' 10-win year more than offsets for being four wins behind Addazio).

I want change. There could be an argument not to make the change, but the ESPN crew's argument that Addazio is accomplishing a lot at BC doesn't hold up historically or nationally.

Can Addazio still save his job?

While nothing has ever been said publicly, I think the consensus among those around BC Football is that Steve Addazio's seat has never been hotter. Sitting at 5-5, his odds of another winning season are not great. Plus there is a general feeling of disappointment in the losing and the excuses. While harder to measure -- because they're not vocal -- there is also a growing apathy among the fanbase.

But just because I want change doesn't mean that is guaranteed. BC, like all colleges, is very political and a big decision like this is not simple. Jarmond has a boss and his boss answers to a Board of Trustees. I think both Father Leahy and the BOT could keep Addazio around if the following happens:

1. BC beats Notre Dame and Pitt. This would leave us at 7-5 with a lot of public momentum. The casual BC fans would be ecstatic about the Notre Dame win. It would also mean Addazio would enter the bowl game with a chance at eight wins. His contract would still be favorable to BC and he has a decent recruiting class coming in. I don't see BC making the move in this situation.

2. BC wins big over Notre Dame and loses to Pitt in a close game. While this scenario would reinforce the Addazio critics' narrative, I think a resounding victory over a ranked Irish team would give him enough breathing room to lose to Pitt the next week. 6-6 would put BC in a bowl and give the team another shot at seven wins.

But those are the only two scenarios where Addazio is safe. He has to beat Notre Dame. He also cannot get blown out in either remaining game. This is speculation on my part, but the narrative paths are taking shape and the narrative is important to all the parties involved. Not all seven wins are created equal and BC's leadership needs support of the BC community. If they want people buying in on Addazio Year 8, the coach needs to pull out a big win and avoid any more embarrassments.

Basketball starts 2-0, yet I remain skeptical

BC Basketball improved to 2-0 in this new season with its win over USF Sunday. I am probably coming off like a bit of a Scrooge, but I am still a bit pessimistic about the season ahead. We beat Wake but they're terrible. The USF game was a good defensive effort and a nice road win, but the team turned the ball over 27 times. That can't happen going forward if the team wants to win.

The good news is that Thorton seems like one of those guys who is going to be a player. While this rule isn't fool proof, BC guys who make an impact early tend to be really, really good. 

BC takes on High Point Wednesday. I know the heart of the ACC schedule is on the horizon, but Christian's first test will be handling the soft part of the schedule. Every year he has a hiccup during these games. Let's hope that doesn't happen this year.

All Addazio's issues on display in loss to FSU

In the postgame handshake, FSU's interim Head Coach Odell Haggins could be seen and heard repeatedly telling Addazio that he "is a hellavu coach!" I can see why an old school coach would appreciate Addazio. His teams play a style that nearly all current coaches grew up playing. He is a grinder. He wears his emotion on his sleeve. And if you only pay attention to BC as you prep for the game, you might appreciate all Addazio does vs all the problems his team consistently has. For those of us who have watched Addazio up close for seven years, this game was just a microcosm of our frustrations with BC's coach.

The D is bad and not getting better. The defensive issues are talent and scheme. BC missed two field goals too. While that is beyond frustrating, Addazio's approach and management of the game related to our kicking woes was moronic. Field goals are not as valuable as perceived in general in football. Addazio should know that. There have been millions of statistical studies to confirm that. Second, field goals are historically high risk for his teams. Finally he has one of the best olines in the country. Nearly any drive in field goal territory should be considered four-down territory. Third and long? Run the ball and get it to fourth and short. Fourth and short. Run again. Even without a 100% success rate, that model will pay off more than us kicking bad field goals. 

Addazio really blew it at the end of the half when he didn't use his timeouts and purposely settled for a field goal attempt...which BC missed. 

I already want a coaching change. This loss might move a few more fans towards my opinion. We've seen everything we need to know. He is an okay head coach but so limited in his approach that he will never get BC to somewhere special. His floor and his ceiling are the same. 

The season is not over. I still think we can beat Pitt and get to a bowl. Addazio is the Houdini of the Hot Seat, so maybe he pulls off a huge upset of Notre Dame in two weeks. But it doesn't matter. He clearly is what he is and we've all seen enough.

BC-FSU preview

Ideally if you were facing a broken team with an interim coach, you would want a big powerful offensive line to just run all over the checked out opponent.  Just keep things simple and break their already broken spirit. Conversely if you were a team with an interim coach and nothing to lose, you would want your one asset to be an aggressive offense with a few home run hitters who can keep you in the game and make the other team nervous. That is sort of the matchup this week. Both teams think they have a chance. It would have been much easier to guess the outcome of this game if Florida State had not fired Taggart this week. Instead we get a situation where anything can happen.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Aside from being the "Red Bandana" game, this is also Senior Day. It feels a bit weird that this is our last home game of the year, but I guess it is better than trying to have late November home games. With those dates, students are either leaving or gone if it is too close to Thanksgiving. It is just a shame that now with the ACC and Notre Dame TV deals our schedule tends to be very frontloaded in September.

Three Simple Keys
1. Safety help. By design Florida State likes to go deep on offense. When they see tape of our breakdowns, they will be even more tempted. Our Safeties need to help out and play smart, especially on deep balls.
2. Stick with the run, even if we get down early. I admire how BC handled the Syracuse game. Even when a few things didn't go our way early, they kept with the run. The same things could happen this weekend. BC needs to know that staying with the run will payoff.
3. Get Flowers more touches. Even simple jet sweeps will compliment the entire playbook.

Gambling Notes
-- The home team has won the last three games in this series.
-- BC is 5-12 vs Florida State
-- Addazio is 3-3 on Senior Day
The current line is BC-2.5

Factoid 
Odell Haggins is 2-0 as an interim coach.

Scoreboard Watching
If you haven't noticed, nearly all the ACC is around .500. That is not good news for us in the bowl pecking order. What we need are some teams who will get selected before us to get eliminated. It would start with Georgia Tech, who take on Virginia. Also see how NC State and Duke do against opponents looking to put up big scores (Clemson and Notre Dame, respectively).

I hope to see...
BC pull away in the first half. At this point, nothing will change how I feel about Addazio, but another blow out win does take away a bit of the sting of our bad losses this year. It helps change perception of BC around College Football.

BC is in trouble if...
FSU confuses Grosel. Our OLine is too good and won't allow him to take a beating. So it is really up to FSU to give him a lot of looks and potentially make mistakes.

Bottom Line
FSU is a bad team and poorly coached. Under most circumstances I think we win with ease. However the coaching change is a wild card. I think (and hope) BC plays smart and well and runs away with the game.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 20

Florida State is reminder that BC is a good job

When BC makes its next football coaching change (a discussion point for a different time), there will be plenty of talk that "BC is a really tough job and no one would want it." I have always worked hard to shoot down this argument, but with BC facing an interim coach at Florida State this week, the difference between what is considered a good job and a bad in college football has never been more subjective.

Florida State fired Willie Taggart 2/3s of the way into his second season as head coach. His record in Tallahassee was 9-12. He will be paid handsomely but will never get as high profile a job again and never even got to bring in a full class of his recruits. And the Florida local, just lost his dream job. That -- in my opinion -- is a tough way to go.

Meanwhile Addazio is in Year 7. In that time he is only one game above .500, and 21-33 in ACC play. He has only won one bowl game. He's never won more than seven games. He's paid nearly three million annually. He gets to live in a great city. He may be under some internal pressure and hear from some whiny fans, but mostly gets to avoid the scrutiny that his peers in other P5 programs face. BC built him new facilities. The expectations are reasonable.

I don't know if Willie Taggart deserved to be fired. I've only seen bits of Florida State this year and what I saw looked like a mess. But my point is that where other schools are finicky and rash, BC can be patient and cautious. For a profession with some much chaos, the opportunity at BC should be appreciated.

Good Day: The good version of BC's offense destroys Syracuse

What a difference a week makes. Last week, Clemson embarrassed BC. This week it was BC's turn to make another team look hapless. BC put up 58 on Syracuse and it could have been more. It started with the Oline, but Bailey, Dillon and Grosel all made huge plays when given the chance. Syracuse looked lost and defeated. The BC D wasn't as dominant but had a good day by their standards.

The win moved BC that much closer to a bowl game. I think BC has more than enough talent on Offense to win all their remaining games. But can the D do just enough to make it happen?

BC-Syracuse preview

Do you think after seven years, Addazio is tired of these "must win" games? Since Year 4, he has been able to do just enough to stay alive, but there must be a grind to that sort of thinking. Or maybe it helps him and gives him focus and clarity. The only time since Year 3 that things seemed totally stable was when we hosted Clemson for GameDay. Yet he followed that moment with a series of ugly games filled with bad luck and bad coaching. Maybe the pressure this week helps BC get back on track.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
This fall I have found myself driving during nearly every BC game. 99% of the time, I am chauffeuring my kids around. This leads to me listening to the radio broadcast with a captive audience. At home when I put the BC game on, they never watch and are off doing a million other things. In the car, they are forced to listen and start to understand what's going on with BC. My son has lots of questions. My daughter don't care, but pay enough attention to ask something or other. It is refreshing experience especially when things are not going well. At home I stew on things. In the car -- with them -- I am forced to let go and not get as frustrated (although if I ever get in an accident, I am blaming Addazio). I also enjoy Meter, Cronin and Mute. They're emotionally invested like we are which is comforting during a roller coaster season.

Three Simple Keys
1. Basic production from Grosel. Syracuse is not Clemson, so that will help, but he needs to make good read snad good throws and run when he can. If he is off again, BC's season might fall apart.
2. Get pressure. Last week confirmed we can't stay with WRs on the deep stuff. I expect Syracuse to try to go deep early. BC needs to counter with lots of QB pressure so he doesn't even get the passes off.
3. Get the WRs involved in the game. This is somewhat related to the shrinking playbook, but there should be plenty of passes to hit with Syracuse crowded the box.

Gambling notes
-- The visiting team has won three straight in this series
-- Addazio is 2-4 vs Syracuse
-- Addazio is 1-2 vs Babers
The current line is BC+3.5

Factoid
BC has only won in the Carrier Dome four times.

Scoreboarad watching
I don't know how Virginia Tech rebounded from their terrible start, but they have. They now have a chance to knock off a reeling Notre Dame. This game should show how vulnerable the Irish are.

I hope to see...
Dillon in the passing game. It is a win-win. He develops and it opens up our offense.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't stop their run. Last year's gameplan against us was so simple, yet we were helpless. If we had five or six DBs on the field, they ran. And yet we couldn't adjust or recognize what was happening.

Overall
I've been calling this a W for BC for weeks. Cuse is bad and there is no reason we can't just run on them like we did with NC State. I think BC controls early and plows over them en route to a comfortable win.
Final Score: BC 28, Syacuse 13

BC-Syracuse preview

Do you think after seven years, Addazio is tired of these "must win" games? Since Year 4, he has been able to do just enough to stay alive, but there must be a grind to that sort of thinking. Or maybe it helps him and gives him focus and clarity. The only time since Year 3 that things seemed totally stable was when we hosted Clemson for GameDay. Yet he followed that moment with a series of ugly games filled with bad luck and bad coaching. Maybe the pressure this week helps BC get back on track.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
This fall I have found myself driving during nearly every BC game. 99% of the time, I am chauffeuring my kids around. This leads to me listening to the radio broadcast with a captive audience. At home when I put the BC game on, they never watch and are off doing a million other things. In the car, they are forced to listen and start to understand what's going on with BC. My son has lots of questions. My daughter don't care, but pay enough attention to ask something or other. It is refreshing experience especially when things are not going well. At home I stew on things. In the car -- with them -- I am forced to let go and not get as frustrated (although if I ever get in an accident, I am blaming Addazio). I also enjoy Meter, Cronin and Mute. They're emotionally invested like we are which is comforting during a roller coaster season.

Three Simple Keys
1. Basic production from Grosel. Syracuse is not Clemson, so that will help, but he needs to make good read snad good throws and run when he can. If he is off again, BC's season might fall apart.
2. Get pressure. Last week confirmed we can't stay with WRs on the deep stuff. I expect Syracuse to try to go deep early. BC needs to counter with lots of QB pressure so he doesn't even get the passes off.
3. Get the WRs involved in the game. This is somewhat related to the shrinking playbook, but there should be plenty of passes to hit with Syracuse crowded the box.

Gambling notes
-- The visiting team has won three straight in this series
-- Addazio is 2-4 vs Syracuse
-- Addazio is 1-2 vs Babers
The current line is BC+3.5

Factoid
BC has only won in the Carrier Dome four times.

Scoreboarad watching
I don't know how Virginia Tech rebounded from their terrible start, but they have. They now have a chance to knock off a reeling Notre Dame. This game should show how vulnerable the Irish are.

I hope to see...
Dillon in the passing game. It is a win-win. He develops and it opens up our offense.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't stop their run. Last year's gameplan against us was so simple, yet we were helpless. If we had five or six DBs on the field, they ran. And yet we couldn't adjust or recognize what was happening.

Overall
I've been calling this a W for BC for weeks. Cuse is bad and there is no reason we can't just run on them like we did with NC State. I think BC controls early and plows over them en route to a comfortable win.
Final Score: BC 28, Syacuse 13

Clemson embarrasses BC

When you enter a game as a 34-point underdog, winning is not expected. You plan and hope for the "W", but your primary goal should be to play your best and put up a fight. BC did neither in their loss to Clemson. The Tigers throttled BC in nearly every phase of the game. But most embarrassing was Boston College's Defense.

The talent between our D and their O was already a mismatch. But the awful tackling and continued blown assignments should not be happening in the eighth game of the season, regardless of who you are playing. Any sign of improvement from last week was wiped away.

Grosel was also overmatched. Do you pull him going into Syracuse? No, but his leash has gotten shorter. If any of the future games get out of reach, you might as well see what Valecce can do.

Dillon hit some BC milestones in rushing and TDs. I wish the marks had occurred in a less frustrating game.

Syracuse presents a great opportunity to bounce back. With Addazio being Addazio, I expect us to look like a different team next week.

Clemson embarrasses BC

When you enter a game as a 34-point underdog, winning is not expected. You plan and hope for the "W", but your primary goal should be to play your best and put up a fight. BC did neither in their loss to Clemson. The Tigers throttled BC in nearly every phase of the game. But most embarrassing was Boston College's Defense.

The talent between our D and their O was already a mismatch. But the awful tackling and continued blown assignments should not be happening in the eighth game of the season, regardless of who you are playing. Any sign of improvement from last week was wiped away.

Grosel was also overmatched. Do you pull him going into Syracuse? No, but his leash has gotten shorter. If any of the future games get out of reach, you might as well see what Valecce can do.

Dillon hit some BC milestones in rushing and TDs. I wish the marks had occurred in a less frustrating game.

Syracuse presents a great opportunity to bounce back. With Addazio being Addazio, I expect us to look like a different team next week.

Clemson embarrasses BC

When you enter a game as a 34-point underdog, winning is not expected. You plan and hope for the "W", but your primary goal should be to play your best and put up a fight. BC did neither in their loss to Clemson. The Tigers throttled BC in nearly every phase of the game. But most embarrassing was Boston College's Defense.

The talent between our D and their O was already a mismatch. But the awful tackling and continued blown assignments should not be happening in the eighth game of the season, regardless of who you are playing. Any sign of improvement from last week was wiped away.

Grosel was also overmatched. Do you pull him going into Syracuse? No, but his leash has gotten shorter. If any of the future games get out of reach, you might as well see what Valecce can do.

Dillon hit some BC milestones in rushing and TDs. I wish the marks had occurred in a less frustrating game.

Syracuse presents a great opportunity to bounce back. With Addazio being Addazio, I expect us to look like a different team next week.

Clemson embarrasses BC

When you enter a game as a 34-point underdog, winning is not expected. You plan and hope for the "W", but your primary goal should be to play your best and put up a fight. BC did neither in their loss to Clemson. The Tigers throttled BC in nearly every phase of the game. But most embarrassing was Boston College's Defense.

The talent between our D and their O was already a mismatch. But the awful tackling and continued blown assignments should not be happening in the eighth game of the season, regardless of who you are playing. Any sign of improvement from last week was wiped away.

Grosel was also overmatched. Do you pull him going into Syracuse? No, but his leash has gotten shorter. If any of the future games get out of reach, you might as well see what Valecce can do.

Dillon hit some BC milestones in rushing and TDs. I wish the marks had occurred in a less frustrating game.

Syracuse presents a great opportunity to bounce back. With Addazio being Addazio, I expect us to look like a different team next week.

BC-Clemson preview

What a difference a win makes. Instead of dreading this game, I actually have some hope. Is BC pulling off the biggest upset in program history? Probably not. Will I be cursing Addazio by the end of BC's first possession? Probably. But does BC have an outside chance to make this interesting? Yes.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Amidst all the speculation on Addazio's future, there is still plenty of talk of where BC belongs and who is responsible for the conference shift and who gets credit, etc. I can't believe we are still having this conversation in 2019. Regardless of what UConn did or does, BC is in the Big East in a way that UConn is not. We are in the same conference as Miami, Pitt, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Throw in the weird Notre Dame relationship and Louisville (who weren't a real Big East team) and we are clearly where we belong. But what is not discussed in the who belongs where and who deserves credit nonsense is that BC's current position was somewhat inevitable. All the original Big East Football schools aside from Temple ended up in Power 5 conferences. Defilippo will always take credit, but it probably would have happened with or without him. The only real big decision looming is what to do when the P5 conferences break away from the NCAA and become a true minor league. I think that is coming. I just hope our leadership has a plan.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't abandon the running game. Like everyone else, Clemson will sell out to stop our run game. They will probably be more successful doing so than others. The key for BC is to stay with it. It is the only advantage we have. We need to keep pounding them. Eventually, big plays will break.
2. Bring lots of pressure. Lawrence can handle the pressure. But I like our chances of coming at him instead of playing lots of zone. Our DBs can't be trusted in lots of zone against mediocre QBs. Against a great one, they will be killed.
3. Grosel has to complete at least 50% of his passes. He doesn't need to be aggressive or make huge throws. But he has to keep Clemson honest and hit some passes.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has lost eight straight to Clemson
-- Dabo is 70-7 at home
-- Addazio is 16-16 on the road as BC's coach
The current line is BC+33.5

Factoid
BC hasn't won at Clemson since this game.

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State and Syracuse is somewhat interesting. Both teams' seasons are teetering. A big loss for either might have them packing it in when they play us.

I hope to see...
Some kickoffs in bounds. Who knows what was going on last week. Hopefully it is corrected.

BC is in trouble...
If the DBs are lost again. The young guys played well last week (and arguably better than most of the starters from earlier in the year). This is a different sort of game. If they allow Clemson guys to run free, BC is toast.

Bottom line
Clemson has the occasional hiccup. If our OLine dominates and if the D is serviceable, I think BC can make this an interesting game. I think it is a slugfest and but BC attempts field goals instead of going for it and can't keep up.
Finale Score: Clemson 24, BC 16

Will Addazio ever beat Clemson?

We all know Addazio's issues. But the one that is probably least discussed is his record against Clemson (0-6). The Tigers are the only team on BC's annual schedule that Addazio has not beaten. There have been moments and one relatively close game, but in his six previous tries nothing has turned BC's way and he has never bested Dabo and Company.

Now the Addazio apologists would point out that Addazio's time at BC also coincided with the best six years in Clemson Football history. But that is out of Addazio's control. As is playing them every year. But that familiarity of playing them annually should result in the occasional upset. Since Addazio has been at BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Florida State and Georgia Tech have all pulled off upsets against the Tigers.

I don't expect a miracle this year. Clemson is once again a heavy favorite. But I think that too often Addazio has purposefully tried to play it close against them in order to pull off an upset. That hasn't worked, so why not go for broke and play every trick in the bag? At this point, he has nothing to lose.

BC runs over NC State

One of the benefits of having three former Offensive Line coaches as head coaches the past 25 years is that our Olines are usually good and often great. This year's unit (aside from their penalties) is playing really, really well. Saturday's performance was their best effort of the season as they controlled the game and allowed Dillon and Bailey to run all over NC State. 

The win is critical to BC's season and postseason hopes. They now are that much closer to six wins and also have a blueprint to beat the remaining teams on the schedule.

I know fans fear that winning means Addazio's tenure continues, but I can't worry about that. BC winning is fun. BC playing well is fun. Watching BC's RBs and OLine steamroll opponents is really fun.

Rutgers and Addazio would be good for each other

I know this sounds like me pushing a used car, but I really think Rutgers should pursue Steve Addazio and that the BC coach should seriously consider going to the Big Ten doormat.

If you believe the coaching gossip, Rutgers is considering a run at Joe Moorhead. There is some boldness in poaching an SEC coach with a buyout, but it also makes sense. Rutgers has hired a lot of coordinators and assistants in the past and the only one to succeed was Greg Schiano. A more established coach with northeast ties is a different approach and might be less risky. Moorhead fits that bill...and so does Addazio. Yet Addazio might be even less risky than Moorhead. Moorhead rebuilt Fordham but hasn't done a rebuild at the P5 level. He also doesn't have as much experience as a head coach at the P5 level. While Addazio might not have the same upside as Moorhead, producing consistent seven win seasons would be welcome at Rutgers.

Why would Addazio want to leave BC? Well, even if he turns this season around, there is a certain stagnation to his tenure. Maybe he survives this year and maybe he takes things to the next level, but the reality is he is more likely done all he can at BC. And the next losing season he has will probably be his last one as a head coach. Going to Rutgers probably buys him another three to five years as a head coach. There is very little downside for Addazio. He gets more money. He gets a fresh start yet can apply much of what he has done at BC and Temple. If he fails, no one holds it against him (everyone fails at Rutgers). If he wins at all, his legacy will be that of a program builder and a guy who stabilized programs.

BC has seen this sort of thing before with TOB's move to NC State. That was a win-win as BC got a shot in the arm with a new coach, and TOB got six more years of coaching that he wouldn't have ever had at BC. Did he change his legacy or NC State's place in college football? No, but he didn't hurt his image or his bank account either.

If this marriage is going to come together, Addazio will have to get to .500. BC hired him off of a losing season at Temple. I doubt Rutgers would do the same.

The fact that Addazio's name has not been floated means this is unlikely to happen, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't. Maybe six weeks from now both sides will realize that they belong together.

BC-NC State preview

The timing of the bye week was fairly fortunate for Addazio. It gave him time to prep his new QB and hopefully find a solution to his abysmal defense. It also lines up well with down year NC State team coming to BC. BC remains a home underdog, but as he prepares for the second half of the season, this is not a bad way to start.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
We all want a breakthrough from seven wins, but getting one or two more Ws still doesn't guarantee a memorable or notable season. Look at NC State under Doeren. He has an eight-win season and two nine-win seasons, yet has what to show for it? Their fans are still a bit bored and jaded. There is no national attention. They are not regularly ranked nor going to premiere bowl games. I guess we want more than just winning football. I think it is also about those seasons where it feels like anything can happen and you get excited about being a BC fan again.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lots of play action passes. This was never AB's strong suit, but it seems like Grosel can get off the quick hitters to Tight Ends and whoever else. I imagine NC State is going to sell out to stop the run and dare Grosel to beat them.
2. Remain aggressive and high scoring. State's D is not great either. With Grosel in, BC can't decide to slow it down and play ball control. If BC wins, it will be in a high possession shootout. A slow game just puts more pressure on the BC D.
3. Turnovers. I've given up on BC getting QB pressure. So now it is on the D to get turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio and Doeren are 3-3 in this series
-- Addazio is 3-9 coming off a bye at BC
-- BC leads the all time series 9-7
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
Doeren has now passed TOB in wins at NC State. Addazio still trails TOB in wins at BC by 34.

Scoreboard watching
Pitt plays Syracuse this weekend. Do you feel like you have a good handle on either team? Does Addazio? Both represent potential wins. It will be interesting to see how they handle each other.

I hope to see...
Grosel play a great game. I know the backup QB is everyone's favorite player. I also know that Brown played hard for BC, but he was also frustrating to watch. Maybe we will luck into something this week. As I have said over and over, with this scheme, these running backs and this OLine, BC doesn't need a game changer at QB. A game manager will do just fine.

BC is in trouble if...
If we still see busted coverages in the first half. Athleticism can't change in a bye week, but players understanding where to be can. If guys are still roaming free in our coverages, then you know the season is done.

Bottom Line
I am still somewhat optimistic about the remaining schedule. That doesn't mean I think much of BC or Addazio, but I also don't think much of this year's NC State. I think this is a close, high scoring game and a few breaks go BC's way.
Final Score: BC 38, NC State, 30

Speculation sharks are circling

It has been my experience that since DeFilippo left, BC has not been a place where gossip leaked. But that hasn't stopped two of the biggest College Football Media guys -- Pete Thamel and Bruce Feldman -- from openly speculating that a change is coming at BC. Both are reputable enough with good track records. So if it is not coming from BC, where is it coming from? My guess -- coaches and agents.

Agents and coaches talk to media folks to get names out there and names associated with certain jobs. I will do a breakdown of candidates depending on the outcome of the NC State game, but most of the names kicked around are ones we would guess anyway (Candle, Hafley, Leipold, etc.). The one name of the bunch that I find fascinating and exciting is Joe Moorhead. Moorhead's name was prominently tied to BC the last time Addazio's seat got really hot. But Addazio pulled out of the nose dive and Moorhead jumped at the Mississippi State opportunity. BC was always a better fit and Moorhead leaving his current job might be one of those win-wins for all involved.

The timing of the coaching carousel might also really work to BC's favor this year. Rutgers is the only job which will seemingly have a similar search list. All the others will certainly target different guys from BC, meaning we won't be bidding against other programs.

But we've been down this road with Addazio before and he is still here, so don't buy into the agent gossip just yet.

AB is done but BC isn't

As speculated, Anthony Brown is done for the season. BC was light on specifics, only mentioning that it was leg-related and he would have surgery soon. The official announcement of the injury shifted the talk on BC twitter and message boards to whether this excuses Addazio's season and if it buys him more time. In my opinion, it does neither. And I also feel this season is salvageable.

Addazio can't blame anything that happens on Brown's injury. With Brown, BC was already floundering at 3-3. Brown provided some explosiveness, but he was hardly carrying the offense. If anything, Brown had missed his fair share of passes that could have changed outcomes. Plus, Brown has a very clear injury history. If Addazio didn't have a plan for the offense without Brown, than that is on him. Coaching college football is not just X&Os during the game. It is also managing the entire program. One of Addazio's biggest failures is his inability to develop backup QBs. Hopefully Grosel will prove the exception.

Although I called for the end of the Addazio era after the Kansas loss, I still think this team can get to six regular season wins and a bowl game. Grosel is not the second coming of Doug Flutie, but he seems serviceable. The Oline is very good and we still have playmakers. This team should still score points. I also think the remaining schedule is not that tough. NC State, Pitt, FSU and 'Cuse are winnable games. Notre Dame and Clemson will be heavy favorites, but neither are as good as they've been in the past.

The key to the remaining season is to get even marginal improvement out of the defense. The unit has been lost and sloppy for weeks. If Addazio wants to save his job, he needs to get them improved quickly.

I hope Brown recovers and continues his career. If it is under Addazio at BC, the coach is going to have to get a lot out of Grosel and improve his D starting this week.

Addazio and close losses

With the loss to Louisville, Addazio's record in one score games (8 points or less) fell to 12-18 at BC and 14-21 in his career. Obviously that is not good. But is it unlucky? Maybe. Given a large enough sample size a coach's record in close games should be around .500. The idea is that the close games are almost like coin flips and for everything that goes against BC, there should be some things that go for BC. Has Addazio screwed up games? Sure, but so have our opponents. In his most frustrating close loss (Wake 2015), he and Clawson took turns screwing up the game. I don't think Addazio is a good game manager, but I don't think the close losses are the bigger problem. I think the main issue is like TOB when he was at BC, too often Addazio doesn't press his advantage (i.e. keep his foot on the gas). By keeping it close or letting up, you let the other team back in and invite the game to become a coin flip. Prime examples of this in his BC tenure include Colorado State, Georgia Tech in Ireland and Florida State last year.

I am now reading and hearing a few BC true believers say that luck will even out this year and BC will get some close wins. That may happen, but like a coin flip, each game is an independent event. He could lose all his close games this year too. The key for Addazio is going to be not keeping it close.

Game Day: Louisville

No comments this year.

What you need to know.

Weather: Mid 60s to low 70s.

TV: Regional sports networks. Whatever channel used to carry the Raycom secondary game in your market is likely doing it again.

Radio: SiriusXM 194

BC-Louisville preview

BC's last trip to Louisville was a turning point. Addazio's job and BC's season seemed on the line and the team responded in a shocking shootout from a previously stagnant offense. Now Addazio takes a team to Kentucky needing another jump start. Could this be the right opponent at the right time again?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The Chris Ash firing sparked a new round of media speculation on who is next and Addazio was often listed in the mix. I am on record saying it is time for change, but I have no idea if change will happen. I still think six regular season wins is happening. Would that be enough to save him? I hope not, but after seeing Christian survive, I have no idea.

Three Simple Keys
1. Third down defense. This has been embarrassingly bad. If BC just stops two or more drives a bit earlier against Wake, they win. Louisville should not be as efficient. BC needs sound tackling and pressure on the QB.
2. No false starts and formation penalties. Is it too much to ask? This has been very sloppy this year. Our line should dominate this weekend. Don't let Louisville off the hook with stupid mistakes.
3. No Special Teams mistakes. Aside from the kicking issues, there was a bad punt last week and some sloppy returns. Clean that up.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio has won the last two vs Louisville
-- Satterfield is 27-6 when coaching at home
-- Addazio is 16-15 on the road as BC's coach
The current line is BC+5.5

Factoid
BC's first trip to Louisville was in 1986.

Scoreboard Watching
This is a pretty slow weekend for ACC Matchups. The one most relevant to us is Pitt-Duke. Is Pitt legit? If they look bad, it will make me feel a little better about our matchup with them at Thanksgiving.

I hope to see...
The Oline dominate. Lost among the false starts and hit or miss passing game is that our Oline has been pretty good. The other team is selling out to stop the run, yet we are still controlling the line of scrimmage. Keep that up and BC will be ok.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't get sacks. Like Kansas and Rutgers, Louisville heads into our game with QB uncertainty. This should lead to us wrecking things, not giving them confidence.

Bottom Line
I've been throwing the game in the "toss up" group and actually think we pull it off. Louisville is even less prepared than Wake for our run game. I think we grind away with Dillon and Bailey and the D does just enough to win.
Final Score: BC 24, Louisville, 17

ESPN's FPI thinks we won't win again

Most people felt that BC's schedule was backloaded with tough games. Yet there was some optimism -- especially after the VT win -- that BC could start 5-0. We didn't. And now things might not get better. Look at ESPN's FPI for our remaining schedule:

Louisville -- 22.4%
NC State -- 49.4%
Clemson -- 1.7%
Syracuse -- 30.9%
Florida State -- 30.1%
Notre Dame -- 3.6%
Pittsburgh -- 26.6%

We are not favored in any of the remaining games and given the slimmest of chance to upset Clemson and Notre Dame. According to the models, our last best chance to win is against NC State. If Addazio finishes 3-9, he is done at BC.

I am on record as wanting a new coach, but I actually think the formulas are off. Is BC bad? Yes. But is the rest of the ACC that much better? No. I still think Louisville, NC State, Cuse, Florida State and Pitt are winnable. I also think Addazio will grind his way to six regular season wins. That might still be too little, too late, but I do think that is what will happen.

Game Day: Wake Forest

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Another perfect, dry afternoon game. Should be in the high 70s at kickoff and will drop off a little as the sunsets, but still a great day.

TV: The ACC Network. I should be getting paid for this plug, but if you are still without the ACC Network, try Youtube TV.

Radio: SiriusXM 202

BC-Wake Forest preview

I think most of us expected BC to be 3-1 heading into Wake Forest. I guess the way it played out though has many questioning how BC will handle the meat of the season. The Wake game will be a barometer as they seem like one of the teams in the league that is playing better than expected and has been fairly consistent.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is only September and we've only played one ACC game, but it feels weird to see BC sitting in second in the division. That is due to our lone ACC win. But it also shows how this season is not going as planned for NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, and obviously Florida State.

Three Simple Keys
1. Avoid Turnovers. The best thing about this offense-defense combination is that they are not turning it over and getting turnovers. Wake is probably the better team. If we are going to win, we need to be careful on offense and opportunistic on D.
2. Pressure on the QB. This has been terrible. I know we are not Don Brown anymore, but copying some of his ideas about bringing pressure from unusual and unexpected slots would be good right about now.
3. Keep using Brown in the running game. Last week was a good start. Keep it up this week. It will open some many other things up on offense.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 4-2 vs Clawson
-- Addazio is 9-15 at home in ACC games
-- Clawson is 12-17 on the road while coaching Wake
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
The visiting team has won five straight in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State and NC State has division implications as well as Hot Seat implications. If NC State loses, I think you will see them asking the same questions about Doeren, we always seem to be asking about Addazio. If FSU loses, their fans will once again be very vocal in their desire for change.

I hope to see...
No more false starts. That was embarrassing, especially for a team that practices so much "tempo."

BC is in trouble if...
Wake has multiple explosive plays. That's the sign that things are not fixed.

Bottom Line
I am not going to lie. I don't feel good about this game. I will pick BC to win and keep with the spirit of this all, but I think this is a bad matchup for BC. If we win, it will be by just pounding, pounding and pounding some more. We need to keep their Offense off the field.
Finale Score: BC 24, Wake 23

Addazio is all in on AB

In his postgame press conference and since, Addazio has defended Anthony Brown's performance so far this season. He explains away the inaccuracy due to the types of passes they are asking Brown to make. And in fairness, Brown does have the arm to make throws that few college QBs can. He has more than enough arm to throw deep downfield. And we are also scoring at a fairly high rate. Currently BC has the 42nd most efficient offense in College Football. If they hold that form, it would be the best Addazio's teams have finished since Ryan Day left.

The problem is that Brown and BC are leaving big plays on the field. Those extra scores and longer drives are the only solution to BC winning more than seven games this year. The D is lost (109 in Def Efficiency). While that will hopefully improve, what is more likely to get better: the side of the ball with the talent and experience (O) or the side with lots of youth and questionable speed (D)?

It might not be fair to ask Brown to suddenly be as accurate as some Big XII QB, but BC doesn't have a choice. They need him to hit open guys and keep drives going. That is the only way to avoid more games like Kansas, where the D couldn't stop anything.

Game Day: Rutgers

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: It will start to get a little warm, possibly into the 80s by the afternoon, but overall still great weather.

TV: The Big Ten Network. If you have the ACC Network, your package should have the Big Ten. For those who don't, it might be sports bar time as I don't know of any workarounds.

Radio: The BC broadcast is streaming on XM 970. If you are driving around in your car, you can hear Rutgers on XM 196.

BC-Rutgers preview

I guess all the BC bloggers and followers owe Steve Addazio some bit of thanks. With the Kansas loss, the season has a tidy little narrative: "can the team bounce back?" I assume things will get better against Rutgers, but the hangover of the Kansas game will linger for games until he has a chance to shake things up in a positive way. There is also the chance that Kansas wasn't just a bad night but a harbinger of things to come. If we are a disaster against Rutgers, the post-game reactions will be even more sarcastic and vitriolic than they were last week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While Addazio got some heat for losing to Kansas in such a way, there are plenty of other College Football coaches under more fire...including Chip Kelly. I have been an unabashed Kelly fan for a long time and always wish he had been a BC coach. I don't know all the problems out at UCLA, but it seems like Bruins fans are already done with him. I guess you never know how any of this will play out. Even if he is run out of town in California, I would definitely welcome him back in New England.

Three Simple Keys
1. Give Anthony Brown throws he can make. This puts the simple in "simple keys" but Brown is really the key to this game and this season. In a way, he reminds me a lot of Chris Crane (big kid, big arm, very inconsistent accuracy). He can throw the deep ball when our guys are in single coverage. Everything else is iffy. So stretch the D with the deep stuff and give him easy decisions on everything else and let him take off with his legs. Crossing stuff is worrisome. Throwing into heavy zones is tough. Keep Rutgers honest, but also play to Brown's strengths.
2. Fix communication in the defensive backfield. This was a disaster against Kansas. I hope they've figured out all the problems. Inexperience and talent are part of the problem, but the primary issue was guys making mental mistakes.
3. Defensive pressure. It is not coming from the front four. They need to create new looks to disrupt Rutgers.

Gambling Notes
-- Chris Ash is 0-3 vs Power 5 teams
-- BC has won its last six away games vs Rutgers
-- Addazio is 2-9 vs P5 teams at BC
The current line is BC-8.5

Factoid
25 seasons ago, BC tied Rutgers at Alumni. (It was probably a sign that Henning wasn't going to be a great college head coach.)

Scoreboard Watching
It is not an ACC game, but Notre Dame at Georgia has big implications. If the Irish win, they are going to be highly ranked heading into our game with them at the end of the season. Wouldn't you love to play spoiler again?

I hope to see...
A resounding BC victory. Although I want change and don't trust Addazio, I still want to see BC succeed. Things are so much more enjoyable when BC is winning and we have something to believe in.

BC is in trouble if...
They give up huge plays on D again. If Rutgers and Kansas can score at will, I fear for what others will do.

Bottom Line
I believe Addazio when he says things are good and they are ready to put last week behind them. I also think playing Rutgers helps. My guess is they keep it on the ground and run over the Knights.
Final Score: BC 35, Rutgers 21

It may not be over, but it might as well be

Fire Steve Addazio. I know it won't be done tonight or this weekend, but like so many other mediocre or bad BC coaches of the past, we are now clearly in the "wasting time" portion of the tenure. He might rebound and grind his way to seven wins again, but he will never, ever be anything more than that. Every game is just more confirmation. He can't find a kicker. His team will come out completely flat at least once a year (if not more often). And seven years in, he still has not developed a QB. (He inherited Rettig and Murphy was a grad transfer.)

The Kansas game was an embarrassment. The execution was terrible. The game plan was terrible. The adjustments were terrible. Worst of all, this team gave up. Flat out gave up when punched in the mouth. They took the lead right before half, got caught sleeping on D to lose the lead before half and waived the white flag thereafter.

I know there is always the risk with a coaching change of taking a step back but what are we holding on to? A .500 coach? The ever shrinking fanbase needs to believe that once in a while BC will put together a great season. That won't ever happen with Addazio.

Game Day: Kansas

No comments this year. 

What you need to know 

Weather: Mid 60s. Have we ever had three straight games with better weather?

TV: The ACC Network. I guess the Youtube TV thing is proving to be a good workaround if you haven't already tried it.

Radio: XM 81

BC-Kansas preview

I know I've called our scheduling cynical, but I do like the idea of playing Kansas. They haven't been a good team for a decade, but they're still a P5 team and this year they have a well known coach. I don't expect Kansas fans to travel en masse, nor do the Jayhawks get the locals out, but I could spend days writing about worse opponents we've hosted at Alumni. The biggest issue is avoiding a trap. Let's hope the team knows enough not to take anyone lightly.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
We are only two weeks in but our schedule doesn't seem so daunting now. Cuse looks terrible. Pitt hasn't shown much. Florida State is lucky not to be 0-2. If BC can take care of business early, exceeding seven wins seems more likely.

Three Simple Keys
1. Bring lots and lots of pressure on Stanley. The KU QB might be the worst we see this year. If we put him under the gun, he is going to make a lot of mistakes.
2. Keep using Dillon in the passing game. Doing it against Richmond was one thing. Now do it against a FBS team. All so that he is more comfortable and a real threat. It will help the running game too.
3. Put up a big number. I don't think Kansas will hang around, but I don't want BC to let up. Our schedule is such that a big offensive output would get attention nationally. Plus I would like to show a killer instinct.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 2-7 in non-conference P5 games
-- Miles is 20-8 in non-conference P5 games
-- Miles is 36-12 coming off a loss
The current line is BC-21

Factoid
BC recruited Miles' son Ben. He committed to Nebraska and later transferred to Texas A&M.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse has played Clemson tough lately. Plus they are looking to bounce back after last week's embarrassment. This game will tell us a lot about both teams.

I hope to see...
A huge game from AJ Dillon. The Heisman was always a long shot, but ACC Player of the Year wasn't and isn't. If he can start putting up big numbers this week, he can get the right sort of hype and attention.

BC is in trouble if...
The Oline can't dominate. Kansas is respectable on D and will sell out to stop the run. We need to prove we can control the line of scrimmage.

Bottom Line
There is so much to like about this game. It's home. They are coming off an awful performance. We are basically healthy. There is no reason not to win and win big. I think BC comes out early with some big plays and never looks back.
Final Score: BC 35, Kansas 9

Jarmond to USC talk is all about Urban Meyer

Earlier this week, Lynn Swan resigned as USC Athletic Director. Even if it was a forced resignation, Swann's tenure was just another rocky step in the recent run of USC Athletics which has seen coaching churn, probation and an extensive bribery scandal. Among the names floated early as a replacement was BC's Martin Jarmond. While Jarmond is a reasonable candidate (P5 school AD, young, charismatic, good fundraiser at a private school), there are plenty of other good candidates out there. Every candidate has his or her pluses and minuses. But if USC goes hard after Jarmond, it will be a signal to the college football world that they want Urban Meyer.

From the minute he stepped down at Ohio State, many started predicting USC as Meyer's next step. Meyer is a great coach, but one of the keys to his success is picking opportunities where he knows he can succeed. SC has been in a down cycle, but they still have a fertile recruiting base, a national brand and a winnable conference. But Meyer is mercurial. Just because it makes sense, doesn't mean that USC can just pick up the phone and get him. This is where Jarmond's prior relationship comes into play. Jarmond is the type who can talk to Meyer and build up his comfort in taking the USC job.

Could Jarmond get the job even if he tells them Meyer is not his vision for USC Football or that he doesn't think the coach will come back? Sure. While his experience is still light, he has enough on his resume for them to hire him. But that doesn't seem like USC's style. They may miss often, but they like to take big swings. If they hire a green, young east coast AD, it will be because they want Jarmond to land the biggest free agent in College Football. 

That's how it is supposed to go

BC took care of Richmond. Good reps all around and no one got hurt. We will see if we can learn anything from it. On to Kansas.

Game Day: Richmond

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Another perfect day. Temps in the high 60s with no chance of rain.

TV: The ACC Network stream only. So ACCNX. Supposedly you will be blocked if your local provider doesn't have an deal with the ACC. However, some people have recommended signing up for a free trial with YoutubeTV to see the game.

Radio: XM 194

Addazio as a game manager

At one point during the Virginia Tech game, the announce team referenced Addazio using a card to decide when to go for it on 4th or kick the field goal. Using a card is nothing revolutionary in football. I don't know if it is for Addazio. But as they were discussing it, they also shared that Addazio will sometimes ignore the card and go with his gut. This is pretty commonplace in football too...and it is part of the problem. If Addazio is ever going to break through, he is going to have to abandon the debunked football conventional wisdom and do what the numbers say.

A few years ago against Clemson, Addazio punted over and over again from Clemson territory as BC drives stalled. Some applauded, but it was the wrong move. Giving up on possessions, especially when he other team is favored and is explosive is a losing gameplan. BC lost that game. I never heard Addazio defend his strategy, but every once in a while you will hear him discuss stats and probability as if he is picking up new info. Some of his colleagues like Urban Meyer and Ryan Day were early adopters of bucking conventional wisdom, so maybe he is hearing it from people he trusts. Moving to tempo a few years ago was a sign that he could adapt. Now, he needs to take it one step further and not go with his gut when he should go for it.

Beyond the field goal issue, BC did go for it on 4th down against VT. It was unsuccessful, but that doesn't mean it was the wrong call. BC is more likely to convert 4th and short with Dillon than they are to make a FG and what ever field position they would pick up in a punt wouldn't be nearly as valuable as continuing their own drive.

Richmond is a perfect game to keep going with the numbers over the gut. I hope it works so that Addazio feels more comfortable with the numbers when the game is on the line against a real team.

BC-Richmond preview

I don't look forward to any FCS games, but this one is scheduled pretty perfectly. Coming off of last week's win, BC is inevitably going to make mistakes and play with less intensity. Getting their easiest opponent should help soften the landing. I know there is always the fear of actually losing this type of game, but I think even if BC comes out flat, they have more than enough of a talent advantage to win.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Outside of actual games, I haven't watched a minute of the ACC Network. I know I am on the old end of their ideal demographic, but I know I am also 1. someone who has yet to cut the cord and pays for premium sports packages, 2. a fan of one of their less popular schools. There should be something that draws me in or gets on my radar. But nothing has yet. This week, BC doesn't even get the game on the actual network and is instead pushed back to streaming. Wasn't the network supposed to end the streaming problem?

Three Simple Keys
1. Intermediate passes. We know teams will sell out to stop the run. We know BC is now a deep passing threat. This week, BC needs to establish the short passing game. It will be good for Brown and for the Tight Ends.
2. Third and long D. BC could have put VT away at different times if they had just got them off the field. Don't let that same thing happen against Richmond.
3. Figure out the kicking. I don't think this game will be decided by 3 points. So use it as a chance to find out who -- if anyone -- can consistently make a field goal.

Gambling notes
-- Addazio has never lost to an FCS team
-- Since the DI split, BC has never lost to an FCS team
-- BC leads the series 4-1
The current line is BC-33.5

Factoid
The schools have not played since 1971.

Scoreboard Watching
Texas A&M vs Clemson is probably the most important ACC game of the weekend. How good is Clemson and how does an early SEC game like this impact their and the ACC's playoff hopes? This won't impact BC's chances of winning the division, but it will provide some insight into how good the defending champs are.

I hope to see...
Extended time from Dennis Grosel. I've shared my fear about the backup QB situation. Hopefully this game will give BC plenty of snaps to see what these guys can do.

BC is in trouble if...
This game is close in the 4th quarter. That is how these games are lost. When the heavy favorite presses late and makes mistakes.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. The key is to get through it without issue or injury.
Final Score: BC 35, Richmond 10

Good start

A great first half turned into a nerve wracking second half, but in the end, BC held on for an important win. Like a lot of season openers, there were good moments yet plenty of room for improvement.

As for prospects for the season...BC clearly has playmakers beyond Dillon. The question is can those play makers dominate for moments or can they play a full game.

I will have grades and viewing thoughts later this weekend.

Game Day: Virginia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Perfect. In the 70s with no chance of rain.

TV: The ACC Network. If you don't have it...bother your provider here.

Radio: XM 201

BC-Virginia Tech preview

The beauty of sports is that come Saturday none of the periphery really matters. It doesn't matter what I think of Addazio or what you do. It doesn't matter what limitations BC has or doesn't have. It doesn't matter if Father Leahy cares about sports. What matters are the guys that take the field. The new season is a blank slate and each game is truly an independent event. That unknown...that newness...that's what gives me hope. I can predict a blah season, but starting Saturday there is the chance for greatness.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
I was at one of my kids games the other day and a couple of Georgia Tech fans were exchanging horror stories about access or lack thereof to the ACC Network. So whatever problems you are having, know that it is not exclusively a BC-fan gripe. While the model is questionable and the carriage battles really just hurt the fans (since the ACC is guaranteed its money), I do think in the long run this benefits the typical BC fan. If you want a reliable high quality provider of lots of BC content, you will get that in the ACC Network. Whatever extra charge you pay will probably still be a comparable spend to what you might pay for sports or entertainment elsewhere.

Three Simple Keys
1. Keep it simple with Dillon. I know we have a new OC. I know we have a team ready to stop Dillon. But don't do anything stupid. Just give him touches, open up holes and let him be.
2. Let Brown run a bit. I don't know if fear of injury of coaching kept Brown from taking off more, but I hope this year if he doesn't like his passing options and has room, he takes off. Like so many things, I will open up things on offense.
3. Get pressure from surprise areas. The further we move away from Don Brown, the less we use his blitz philosophies. I don't think we have enough pure talent upfront for them to win battles on their own, so it would be nice to copy some of Brown's ideas of bringing pressure from anywhere.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 5-1 in openers at BC
-- Addazio is 3-3 vs Virginia Tech
-- Addazio is 2-4 in his first ACC game of the season
The current line is BC+4

Factoid
Virginia Tech leads the all-time series 9-18

Scoreboard Watching
Boise State takes on Florida State. This interests me on two fronts. One, last season ended in such an abrupt and strange way, I still have no idea how good Boise State is or was. Two, I don't know if Florida State is on the road to recovery or will remain a mess.

I hope to see...
A smooth offensive game. Bajakian has a lot riding on his shoulders. Forget dynamic, we haven't been an efficient, productive offense since Ryan Day left. If we can just get in the top half of CFB production and efficiency, I would consider Bajakian a great coach.

BC is in trouble if...
Brown's passes are getting batted around. Beyond the loss of down, it would show a lack of development and coaching.

Bottom line
This game is very winnable. I know this doesn't line up with my season predictions, but these game previews always have me looking for reason for a win. I think BC can control the clock and tempo. Make a few plays and start the season the right way.
Final Score: BC 21, VT 13

Season Prediction Part III: What will happen

Here it is: my official prediction. At a very high level, I know the talent is young, but I think it is on par with what we've had the past few years. I think the schedule is tougher on paper than it is on the field. My biggest issues are I don't trust Addazio to manage tight games and I don't expect Brown to make any sort of leap. Therefore we are what we've been under Addazio.

Virginia Tech. Loss. My guess is this will be like the opener against GT a few years ago. BC blows a winnable game.

Richmond. Win. Should be easy. Just don't hurt Dillon.

Kansas. Win. Closer than we want, but still a BC win.

at Rutgers. Win. Play smart, run Dillon a lot and take the road 'W.'

Wake Forest. Win. It will be back and forth, but we do enough at home.

at Louisville. Loss. I think we probably have more depth and maybe more talent. I am betting we let them hang around and steal a game.

NC State. Loss. I don't think much of Doeren, so it is frustrating to watch him build a better program.

at Clemson. Loss. I think we scare them early, then they pull away.

at Syracuse. Win. This has been a weird series under Addazio. I expect more of the same this year.

Florida State. Win. A quasi-upset. This gets everyone fired up.

at Notre Dame. Loss. On the road, against a highly ranked team. What do you expect Addazio to do?

at Pitt. Loss. This is the heartbreaker. Addazio has another chance to break through and doesn't.

6-6 (3-5 in ACC play) will be enough to get us to the Military Bowl where we beat Navy to get to seven frustrating wins.