A fresh look at bias and regions in recruiting

BC fans (including me) have long criticized the recruiting services for their biases and flaws in their evaluation. But our anecdotal examples of BC diamonds in the rough aren't enough to say the system is deeply flawed. But Football Study Hall did a fascinating breakdown of regional talent and how it later converts to the NFL. Long story short, the south has more talent depth, but they also have the region where the most recruits fail to live up to their respective hype. Take a look at the map below. The red state represent overrated talent while the blue represent the states where the talent is more likely to over perform (in college and the NFL). 

What's interesting is that Massachusetts is one of the rare northern states that is not blue. What that means is that the local talent tends to be a little overrated. The good news is that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are all underrated regions. I don't think BC should abandon the southern states just because the talent may not develop to the expectations, but I think this map reinforces the general belief that our region has underrated talent. 

An interesting look at reactions to Boston College offers

As BC tries to make inroads in new locations, they will inevitably come up against a fair bit of disinterest from recruits. I imagine the hope is that getting in early with a few kids in a new territory sparks something and from that spark, you find one kid. And then you can go back to that program in future years and find another and another. For a specific example of how players react, look at the videos of three California prospects for the 2019 recruiting class.

Here is TE Jude Wolfe. BC is his first offer, but he clearly thinks other Power 5s are coming and mentions mostly west coast programs. 

Next is DL prospect Na'im Rodman. He is more camera shy, and admittedly wasn't expecting a BC offer.

Finally there is WR Colby Bowman. He seems to have the most enthusiasm about BC but his knowledge seems a bit limited to our best NFL players.

Will any of these guys become Eagles in two years? Who know, but it doesn't hurt to branch out. But when you take the shotgun approach in a far off place, you have to expect a certain level of indifference. 

John Johnson scouting and other links

After a solid Senior Bowl, John Johnson is getting more attention.

Give credit to BC basketball assistant Scott Spinelli. Even as the team looks terrible, he's still beating the bushes looking for more talent. BC is in the mix with many players from this New Jersey showcase.

If you want to get a glimpse into how the sausage is made in recruiting rankings, it will be interesting to follow Florida Running Back Deshuan Fenwick. He was an unranked and relatively unknown prospect. BC recently offered him. Now Georgia has come into the picture. Want to bet that if this once unranked junior signs with Georgia, he will have three stars at a minimum?

Reading into the Devan Lawson decommitment

New York TE/DE Devan Lawson had this to say on Twitter.

pic.twitter.com/6TrLE0Ujma

— Devan Lawson (@dlawson_10) April 21, 2016

Fortunately there are few (if any) BC fans overreacting to this news. Lawson seems like a diamond in the rough type and I trust the staff, but this is not a big loss. In fact losing him now hints at bigger issues.

Because BC cannot publicly discuss recruits, we are left to guess what happened or wait for the gossip to trickle out. Usually when a guy decommits, it means another school has entered the picture. That doesn't seem to be the case with Lawson. Since committing to BC, new teams have offered, but no Power 5s. If you believe the gossip, the staff started questioning Lawson's character and academic discipline.

Although he decommitted, I don't expect BC to swing Lawson back. That rarely happens. And although there will be exceptions, Addazio is big on moving on once a recruit starts looking flighty. I am sure we will have a new TE/DE type soon.

When will BC ease up the JUCO recruiting?

New kicker/punter Satchel Ziffer just graduated from Old Dominion, but that is not his only school. The 5th year senior also spent time at California Junior College -- Pasedena City College. Because he has his degree, his time at a JUCO didn't hold anything up with BC Admissions. Ziffer is at BC to kick and punt, but I hope any success he has leads BC to reconsider its JUCO bias.

BC rarely recruits directly from Junior Colleges. Codi Boek and Paul Peterson are the only guys in the last ten years who came directly from a JC. Both were unique circumstances and more than demonstrated they could handle the academic rigor of BC. Neither were typical JUCO guys. But as the "typical" Junior College player changes, BC needs to adjust too.

In the old days Junior Colleges were for recruits who weren't recruited or who couldn't qualify academically. Now as more players transfer, more good prospects are using a JUCO season as a pit stop. By playing for a Junior College a player does not have to sit out a year. They can go from a FBS program to Junior College and then back to an FBS program. If a player left his FBS school in academic good standing and just wants more playing time, why wouldn't he fit in at BC?

Much like a 5th year, the benefit to BC in recruiting a JUCO is that you sort of know what you are getting. Playing at a Junior College is a much better test than any high school. BC can get immediate depth. For a guy like Addazio who is always worried about senior leadership, an older Junior College player can fill a gap.

According to Rivals Database only one Junior College player in the whole country has interest in BC. It's California DE Raveon Hoston. And he doesn't even claim an offer from BC. So don't expect the Junior College situation to change this year. But the increase in transfers can be an opportunity. If BC develops that pool, it can be one more way to build our program without comprising who we are.

Big recruiting win for BC

Ohio Linebacker Ethan Tucky committed to BC Sunday night. This is big news and a big win for Addazio and Al Washington. Tucky is one of the more highly ranked BC verbals and held offers from Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa and Northwestern. Rivals gives him 4 stars and ranks him the 14th best player in Ohio. 247 only gives him 3 stars, but they have him as the 13th best player in Ohio.

Although he didn't hold an Ohio State offer, there was interest and he's in the heart of Buckeye country. Getting a recruit like this -- with Big Ten offers -- is encouraging since we've somewhat shifted resources from the Midwest to other areas.

Being one of the younger guys on the staff, Al Washington is expected to be a key recruiter, but he's really having a strong season. If this keeps up, we are going to have to worry about other programs coming to poach him.

Signs the players are buying in

Coaches spend countless hours texting and calling, and schools build shiny new facilities all in an effort to impress new recruits. But the most underrated tool in recruiting remains current players. They host potential recruits and they create the team culture.

When things turned bad under Spaz, the players were the canaries in the coal mine. You could see their comments on social media and read between the lines on recruiting stories. If the current players are not buying in, it is that much harder for recruits to buy into a coach or potential program. I think the current players believe in BC and in Addazio. The most recent example is Jonathan Hilliman's tweet about potential transfer Matt Hegarty.

I have no idea if Hilliman has any prior relationship with Hegarty. The former Notre Dame player is from New Mexico, so there is no obvious connection. I don't know if Hegarty is interested in BC or if the staff wants him, but it is a great sign that our current players want him. If they are this excited about a transfer, imagine what they are saying to the high school kids that come to campus.

Hilliman is only one guy, but he's one of our best young players. Let's hope other players believe in BC like he does and want great recruits and transfers to join the team.

Why the NFL Draft still matters to BC

Selling the NFL to any high school prospect is pretty disingenuous. Even the majority of recruits at Alabama and Florida State will not play at the next level. For a long time, BC's pitch to potential players has been about more than football. We sell the BC experience, the education, the city, and getting your degree. Our appeal is about life off the field and life after football. Yet we still need the NFL.

Without the carrot of playing at the highest level, BC wouldn't be BC. As much as we push education, there are plenty of places where a kid can get a great education. Just like there are plenty of places where a guy can just play and focus on football. Our mix of elite football and elite education is a pitch only a few schools can offer. And to effectively sell it, we need to send guys to the NFL. We need the NFL Draft to showcase our best players and validate our process.

The media created the "Harvard during the week, Alabama on the weekend" cliche to mock BC's divided priorities, but the reality is that split is a great position. We should embrace it. There are certain players who want both. And those types of guys who want both, have been the foundation for our past success.

It is unlikely that any BC guys will get drafted Thursday night. By Sunday though there should be a new batch of our guys headed to new NFL teams. And with each selection our staff will be texting and tweeting those Draft updates to a new batch of potential BC guys.

Making the most of Mass

Massachusetts is not Texas or Florida. That's pretty obvious on many fronts, but is especially noticeable in college football recruiting. If BC coach wants success on the field, he is going to have to recruit far beyond the state border. But Massachusetts has provided a good foundation for some of BC's best teams. That is why is was so frustrating to watch some of the states best players not commit to BC in recent years. Considering this is his first full recruiting cycle, Addazio seems to have a better grip of Massachusetts recruiting than his predecessors. With the early enrollees serving as a the most recent reminder, BC has nearly every elite Massachusetts target they recruited this year. Take a look at Rivals Top 10 Players in Massachusetts:

1. Connor Strachan -- 4 stars | Boston College
2. Johnathan Thomas -- 3 stars | Penn State
3. Jon Baker -- 3 stars | Boston College
4. Isaac Yiadom -- 3 stars | Boston College
5. James Hendren -- 3 stars | Boston College
6. Kevin Cohee -- 3 stars | Boston College
7. Tom Rodrick -- 2 stars | UConn
8. Lubern Figaro -- 2 stars | Wisconsin
9. Miles Wright -- 2 stars | uncommitted
10. Kevin Bletzer -- 2 stars | Boston College

Of the Top Ten, the only player who BC aggressively recruited who went elsewhere was Figaro. Thomas was highly rated, but many of the experts rank our incoming RB recruits higher.

I don't know if BC will ever get to the point where they take all of the Top Ten but this is progress. And if tradition holds, these guys will be key to our success over the next five years.

Basketball wins and other links

The basketball team beat Philadelphia on Sunday. They're a Division II team, so it doesn't do much for BC's resume. However, I am glad we finally won.

Matt Patchan turned out to be one of the key players of the season. It worked so well because he was immediately available and had a prior relationship with Addazio. Another Florida player just graduated early, is available and looking to transfer. This time it is QB Tyler Murphy. Speculation on his destinations include BC.

BC offered Evander Holyfield's son. As an example of the change in mindset, Holyfield is a 2016 prospect!

One columnist explained why he voted for Williams for Heisman.

Brian broke down the votes for Williams. I guessed that he would earn around 50 1st Place votes. He only received 29.

Williams and Arizona Running Back bonded on the award circuit.

UPDATE! Reason No. 374 why I try no to get worked up over recruiting: Landry decommits

UPDATE: Things seemed to have flipped back overnight. Once again recruiting can be very fickle. Let's hope this commitment sticks.

Boston College Football Recruiting: DE Harold Landry Still Committed To Boston College [UPDATE] http://t.co/WnFK2MCjEA

— BC Sports Now (@BCSportsNow) October 17, 2013

I am a Boston College eagle! PERIOD!

— HAROLD LANDRY III (@HAROLDLANDRY2) October 17, 2013

PREVIOUSLY

Pine Forest (NC) DE Harold Landry @HAROLDLANDRY2 has decommited from #BostonCollege and names #Miami #NCState #OhioState as top 3 @rivals
— Deana King (@NCPreps) October 17, 2013

One of BC's top recruits changed his mind and has reopened his recruiting process. This is not good news, but I am not losing any sleep over it. Addazio's approach to recruiting and his history leads me to believe that he will bring in enough talent. Landry -- who's profile has only risen since he verballed to BC -- is just one of many. I expect BC will backfill his spot quickly and should have at least 25 recruits coming in this cycle. Addazio's success will be about the whole class and how our staff develops them once they are on campus.

Negative recruiting will always happen. Kids changing their minds will always happen. It is just a matter of winning more of these issues than you lose.

NHL Draft filled with Eagles and other links

BC's future was on display during the NHL Draft. Four future Eagles were taken during the process. All are expected to suit up for BC prior to signing with their new respective teams.

Long-time BC Hockey assistant Jim Logue announced his retirement.

BC is still targeting Florida QB Sean White, who shined at an Elite 11 Camp.

CFN's preview of the season and team is solid.

As far as something different...a few BC guys got together to build a football game app. You can check it out here (Apple, Droid).