BC-Colgate preview

I don't know if things will ever get back to normal, but this weekend BC will play football in Alumni Stadium with real fans in the stands. It is only Colgate so the football will probably be sloppy and a little boring, but it will still be BC Football! As I've been writing all week, I think this could be a special season. So as uninteresting as a game against Colgate may be, this should be viewed as part of a larger story: the return to exciting BC Football where the whole College Football world pays attention.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 

Fans return to Alumni this weekend and will find it...pretty much the same as they left. Alumni hasn't really changed much since the 1993-94 renovations. Athletics' infrastructure has focused on a variety of higher priority projects without really addressing our biggest asset. We've had concession, scoreboard and turf adjustments, but haven't really done anything for the majority of fans. As the fan experience changes across all sports and BC's demographics change, perhaps it is time to assess what Alumni should look like, how many seats are really needed and will major improvements to seats, restrooms and concessions improve attendance. I like a lot about Alumni and have many fond memories there. But I don't have to sit there seven weekends a year. The intimacy and the access are unbeatable, but maybe some modern comforts and bells and whistles are needed as the current iteration of the stadium heads nears its 30th birthday.

Three Simple Keys

1. Come out healthy. This game is a tune up. Nothing more. So the key is not to get anyone important hurt. Once we go up by 20, starters need to sit.

2. Rotate a lot on the front seven. The first two games of the season are critical to see what sort of talent and depth we have upfront. Get as many guys playing as possible and see who shows promise.

3. Save any wrinkles. This gameplan should be as basic as possible. Establish some basic tendencies, but save any tricks of counters for Temple and Missouri.

Gambling Notes

-- BC has never played Colgate

-- BC has won four straight season openers

-- Colgate has not beaten an FBS team since the DI split.

The current line is BC-46.5

Factoid

We have played four of the seven Patriot League football teams. BC is yet to schedule Bucknell, Lafayette or Lehigh.

Scoreboard Watching

There are plenty of ACC teams playing in important games this weekend, but I don't think any are as meaningful as Clemson vs Georgia. Clemson will probably win the ACC again. However, to get national respect and attention, they need to beat UGA.

I hope to see...

Plenty of Grosel time. If we go up big early, Jurk will sit. 

BC is in trouble if...

75% of the team tests positive for COVID before game time. Other than that, this should be no big deal.

Bottom Line

Colgate is well coached and a good Patriot League program, but they are still overmatched in a big way. BC just needs to do its thing and not overthink this.

Final Score: BC 51, Colgate 14

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

The outlook for this season is pretty straight forward...even from blind, Hafley apologists like me. We have a very good QB and what should be a prolific and explosive offense. We have a very friendly schedule with nearly four wins guaranteed. The biggest issue is going to be the D. Can Hafley and Lukabu get this group up to speed quickly? It lacks depth and much of that side of the ball is either mediocre or untested. I think the DBs will carry the team, but have no idea what the front will do to help out. I think Hafley will get the most out of them and it will be a fun season, but we are not at a championship level yet. This serves as my official prediction for the season.

What Will Happen

Colgate. Win. Colgate does some things well, but I can't see this one being close.

at UMass. Win. This should also be very one sided. I hope lots of backups play the first two weeks. 

at Temple. Win. The first real test. I don't take it lightly but still think we win.

Mizzou. Win. The season turns on this game. By going 4-0 out of conference, Hafley puts BC in a position to exceed their win totals of the last decade. 

at Clemson. Loss. Probably a lot like last year, where they take our early punch but we can't put them away.

NC State. Win. Probably a tougher game than many expect. We get back in the rankings after this 'W.'

at Louisville. Win. Another close game, but we hang on.

at Syracuse. Win. I think things could very well be falling apart for Syracuse by this point in their season.

Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think VT is special, but I just don't see us navigating the second half of the schedule without some hiccups.

at Georgia Tech. Win. Hafley wins another close game. Jurk is generating a lot of buzz now.

Florida State. Loss. If FSU gets their offense going, I worry about this game.

Wake Forest. Win. Wake late in the season (or any time really) can always make things interesting. I think at this point Hafley would know what his team is and isn't and get them to perform at a high level.

9-3 (5-3 in the ACC) would be BC's best showing in years. Everyone is excited. But we push for the Holiday Bowl since not many ACC teams want to go west and we have enough fans and alums in Southern California to make it appealing. We play some mid-level Pac 12 team (Stanford?) and win. A 10-win season with seven wins over P5 teams is a huge deal in Year 2. Everyone is looking forward to Hafley Year 3.

Season Prediction Part II: Worst Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I am excited about the season and do believe big things are ahead. But that doesn't mean that it couldn't all fall apart. We are young and have a ton of question marks on the defensive side of the ball. Teams will probably adjust to our our offense a bit. And that precious luck, which seemed to favor us last year, could even out with some bad bounces this season. This is a worst case scenario situation. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Worst Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. The schedule is very friendly. This is example No. 1.

at UMass. Win. Even in our worst years, the schedule comes with a couple of built in wins. 

at Temple. Win. A close game here has everyone nervous.

Mizzou. Loss. The bubble bursts.

at Clemson. Loss. The best team in the conference kills us.

NC State. Loss. I don't think the team will just roll over, but this is another loss.

at Louisville. Loss. A four game losing streak is a sign the season is falling apart.

at Syracuse. Win. stop the bleeding game. Even in terrible seasons, good coaches pull out wins.

Virginia Tech. Loss. If our D is terrible, these are the games we will lose.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. On the road...one of those bad luck games.

Florida State. Loss. Another losing streak.

Wake Forest. Win. Hafley ends the season with a win to calm everyone's nerves.

This scenario would be very disappointing. Hafley showed signs of being special last year with how he manages the team and manages a game. This would have me doubting Year 1. But as I said, I don't think it would happen. 5-7 would mean no bowl and lots of questions, but if 5-7 is a considered a terrible year, than that would show Hafley has just raised expectations.

Season Prediction Part I: Best Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I think this year will be fun. It will be great to see fans back in the stands and I feel like our season and Hafley's growing media presence will generate buzz and extra attention to the program. The schedule is friendly too. Will there be bumps in the road? Probably. But here is what could happen if everything works out just right. Worst case will come tomorrow. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. Glorified scrimmage. No issues. Perfect opponent to shake off the rust.

at UMass. Win. When I talk about a friendly schedule, starting on the road in state against a terrible UMass team is what I meant. 

at Temple. Win. This is more of a challenge, but BC should be able to easily outscore Temple. I fear lots of shootouts this year, but I don't see a Temple hanging for four quarters.

Mizzou. Win. The first real test and in this perfect season, Hafley and Co. pass the test.

at Clemson. Loss. Both teams come in ranked and this is a huge game nationally. We give them another tough game but come up short again.

NC State. Win. I think it will be a tough game, but in a perfect season we bounce back from Clemson with a good solid ACC win.

at Louisville. Win. A high scoring, back and forth game. BC holds on to win.

at Syracuse. Win. I never take a trip to Syracuse lightly, but think we win this trap game.

Virginia Tech. Win. I think things could be falling apart for VT at this point in the season. We crush them.

at Georgia Tech. Win. This is a tricky one as Georgia Tech will be improving. We still win.

Florida State. Win. FSU is one of those teams that beats us when they shouldn't. They won't this year.

Wake Forest. Win. If we enter this game with one loss, the pressure will be intense. I think we are up for the challenge.

The loss to Clemson keeps us out of the ACC Championship game, but the incredible buzz and record get us in an at large New Year's Bowl game (whichever one has a spot to fill). We play a power and lose...with an interim coach. If Hafley goes 11-1, the entire football world will try to hire him away. I see him in the NFL and would gladly wish him luck if he goes out with this type of season.

Hafley Year 2: still in the Honeymoon Phase?

 

Does last year even count? In my opinion, it does. And going 6-5 (5-5 in the ACC) was a miracle and a hell of an accomplishment. Doing it without a true offseason program. Doing as the schedule, rules and expectations changed weekly was also remarkable. Even with some disappointing losses and skipping a bowl game, I don't really feel like Jeff Hafley had one misstep last year. It was as perfect as a 6-5, first year season could be. But despite all that relative success and the clear change in mood, we still don't know anything about what we really can be or will be this year. This is is Year 2, but it is sort of Year 1 again.

For the guy who did it right when everything was going wrong, this should be an huge opportunity. The roster is closer to his vision. He had an entire offseason to implement and adjust schemes and staff. He even has an easier schedule. The flipside is expectations are higher, there are more distractions and the rest of the college football world has had time to plan and prepare for the cards Hafley showed last year.

I am going to do my season predictions as usual this year, but I will give you a sneak preview. I think we are going to be good this year. Very good. I know there are holes and depth issues on D. I know that things will get rough. But I think the schedule, the QB and the head coach are all lined up just right for a special BC season. And because we don't know what to take away from last year, I am going to enjoy this extra long Hafley Honeymoon. 

New uniforms embrace classic look

It only took years of fans begging and a switch to a new provider for BC to finally come out with a new look that embraces some of BC's classic styles. While not a throwback like last year's Flutie era jerseys, this season's uniforms will be simple: gold pants (no stripe), maroon and white jerseys (no stripes), use of the old classic BC logo, numbers with simple traditional font. The helmet is all gold and seemingly shinier. I prefer the stripe on the helmet, but understand that the solid helmet is classic BC.

I am glad to see the all white road uniforms out of the rotation. While I didn't mind the mix and max of maroon pants and gold pants in various combos, traditionally BC wore gold pants all the time. I am fine with that now. 

While this "what's old is new again" mentality won't last forever, I hope BC always keeps this sort of base uniform in the rotation. Recruits and players like variety, so I am fine with seasons that have special jerseys or unique combos...as long as we can keep coming back to something like this.

What is not being said about the new BC Basketball facility

BC finally made it official and announced their new basketball practice facility. The Hoag Pavilion will be dedicated exclusively to men's and women's basketball and use some of Conte's current footprint and expand beyond Conte a bit. It is good news but not entirely surprising since the plans have been circulated for nearly two years as the project engaged donors looking for significant gifts. While it is exciting to get caught up in the bells and whistles of the new building ("six courts!" "their own weightroom!) there are a few things that won't get mentioned in the press release nor will friendly college hoops writers touch.

1. The fundraising exceeded goal and project grew as Kraft got involved.

COVID could have killed this project. Father Leahy could have killed this project. Pat Kraft could have killed this project. The past year was an institution stepping into the unknown. Could you still raise significant money? Would sports revenues be slashed so deep, that a new capital project would be unfeasible? Is basketball an important enough program to warrant the investment? The answers to those questions were all good for BC fans. Fortunately not only did Kraft push forward with what started under Jarmond, he expanded the project and the fundraising. Because he is not as public and because he took over during a unique year, Pat Kraft is still a bit unknown to most of the BC community. Yet he showed he can connect with the right donors and showed that he understands the sports landscape. And he also showed he can adapt to BC's own internal politics. Those are all good signs for the future of BC Basketball and BC Athletics.

2. The impact of the facility on winning basketball is probably a bit overstated.

College sports is an endless arms race. BC needed the upgrade. It serves as a nice selling tool and gives our athletes in both programs the chance to get better. But buildings alone don't equal winning. The lack of a dedicated basketball facility has been used as a crutch by our basketball coaches for a decade. As you see players jumping programs left and right and watch as the best talent bypasses college all together, a nice new gym and workout space is probably not at the top of mind for most players. Playing time, preparing for the next level, connecting with the coaching staff, developing your game, exposure and winning are the primary factors as they decide where to play. This helps but what Earl Grant does as a coach will be ten times more important. He needs to develop talent and then outcoach the other side. A shiny new gym is just a small piece of that puzzle. 

3. The plan for Conte will be the next be announcement.

BC takes its time to make things official. The plan, approvals and money all need to be in place. The next big item is the renovation to the rest of Conte. Some of it will be cosmetic and some will be to make a better fan experience for basketball and hockey. Because those sorts of renovations will impact the gameday experience for BC Basketball, they will almost be as important as the practice facility.

The impact of the New Balance deal and where's Football?

The long-rumored Boston College-New Balance deal was finally announced Tuesday. It is unique in many ways, most of which is good for BC. There are a few big question marks. 

The Good

1. The Boston connection is going to lend itself to New Balance being more than a shoe and apparel partner. BC will have access to facilities, student internships and be involved in product development. 

2. While New Balance might not have the cachet of some other brands with kids, they provide very solid and popular products in non-revenue sports. Given that our athletes' feet are critical in this process, most just got a better shoe than what they were wearing with Under Armour.

3. Pat Kraft found a partner in a shrinking market. With Under Armour getting out of the college game, that really just left Addidas and Nike as the only players in town. And with Under Armour out, Addidas and Nike had one less bidder to drive up prices. Kraft got creative and got more money for our non-football sports than we would have had Nike or Addidas taken over the whole thing. Given budget pressures and how other schools dealt with the Under Armour fall out, this was a win.

The Unknown

1. If you followed the FBI bribery scandal with college basketball, you know that the shoe companies were heavily involved in the money and player payments (Under Armour too). Regardless of how you feel about this and whether UA and BC were dirty (there is no evidence to say they were), buying players was part of the shoe deal at many, many programs. With New Balance being a relatively new entrant into this world, we have no idea how they will operate and what sort of impact it will have on BC recruiting. I will remain optimistic that the changing landscape of college basketball and the still looming threat of the FBI will mean BC and New Balance will take the right approach. I also hope that New Balance will get more involved at the AAU level so that the New Balance brand won't be such an issue for recruits. In the early stages of this deal, I don't see BC as a player for elite recruits, so the odds of the shoe deal making or breaking a recruit is unlikely.

And then there was Football

Football is not part of the New Balance deal. The separate football deal will be announced in the coming weeks. (It has long been rumored to be Addidas.) Football is doing its own thing because that is what makes most sense for New Balance and BC. New Balance is not heavy into football and not making the push there like they are in basketball. Operationally it will be easier to deal with a supplier that already has a football support structure. Plus breaking off Football separately is a chance to make a few extra dollars, since football is that much more lucrative. While shoes do impact basketball recruiting, it less important for football. Revenue from a football deal is also important to the coaching compensation.

Making sense of the Earl Grant hire

 

The general reaction to BC hiring Earl Grant was "who?" and "why?". There was a similar reaction among the fans and media when we hired Jim Christian seven years ago. I hated the Christian hire for Day 1. I am onboard with Earl Grant. And if his hire reminds me of any BC coach, it is Al Skinner.

Skinner was close to Grant's age when he took the BC job. He also had a similar track record as a head coach at a mid-major. Neither were hot names on the coaching market at the time. Skinner succeeded. Let's hope Grant does as well. Skinner advised during this process and has provided Grant assistance and an evaluation of the BC job. That alone is probably worth more than our last two coaches got in the hiring process. 

Grant is not a Skinner clone though. He is more personable and will be more of a salesman than Al ever was. He also is a D first coach, where sometimes it seemed like an afterthought to Skinner teams. 

The make or break will be staffing. Skinner had great staffs (including five guys that went on to be head coaches). Donahue and Christian did not. Grant has a budget to get good people. If he just brings his Charleston crew, I will become a bit more skeptical of him.

Grant is known as a good recruiter. That should help. Many of our common complaints about BC recruiting are being solved (facilities, admissions, etc).  If he brought NBA talent to Clemson and Charleston, he should be able to do it at an improving BC.

Much is being made of his lack of ties to the region. From a recruiting standpoint, that doesn't bother me. Talent is all over and most of our stars have been from outside the region. The lack of ties to BC or the region becomes a bigger concern for me in adapting to our community and culture. All colleges (even the non-Catholic) become a bit parochial in their approach to things. When you are someone new to the school it can often be daunting. You have to decide which battles you are going to fight every time someone says "that's not how we do things here." But having coached against BC and having a relationship with Skinner leads me to believe that Grant understands BC more than we might expect and has a plan for how he will adapt to BC and where he needs to make changes.

Who he is not?

Grant is not Dennis Gates or Mark Schmidt or Porter Moser or Tommy Amaker or Howard Eisley or any of the other names floated for the job. That is by design at BC. Gene used to talk and speculate with any and everyone. Fans, media and bloggers liked it, but BC did not. Each subsequent coaching search since has been more and more tight lipped and more and more speculative. That leads to fan frustration and disappointment when a random name is hired. But who cares really? Winning the press conference is nice, but that goodwill fades if you don't win once the games start. 

The biggest problem with BC's timing is that there wasn't a perfect, give the guy a blank check candidate for us. John Beilein had zero interest last year and even he has some baggage with regards to his age and how he left the NBA. What other name would have been worth going for broke with? I like Ed Cooley a lot but was he the answer?

The future

Kraft could have gambled a bit more. He could have hired a hot name or an assistant. I am glad he didn't because my expectations and goals at this point of BC Basketball are pretty low. I just want to get back to respectable and competitive annually in the conference (.500). Grant is no sure thing, but I think he is a good mix of potential and competency that will get us back to where we were before these last 11 seasons. I wish him luck and think he will be fine. And if we are lucky he will be a great hire and a great fit.

The challenge with Dennis Gates

 

There's no perfect candidate for Boston college. The ideal candidate would be young yet experienced as a head coach, have ties to BC and/or the ACC, be someone who can recruit, run a staff, manage a game, develop players once they get on campus, sell the program, be charming with the media, have time for social media, and serve as another face of Boston college. Oh, and it would helpful if he were black and Catholic too. If this man existed BC would give him all the money in the world. But since he doesn't exist, Pat Kraft is left to figure out what categories are the deal breakers in his search.

From what I've been told, head coaching experience is a must. That hurts popular names like Howard Eisley, but I understand the position. We have had eleven seasons of futility. This is not the right time to have a rookie coach learn on the job. We need a sure thing, or at a minimum, someone who can keep us competitive annually in the ACC.

One name, who has become popular of late, checks many of the boxes on the wish list: Cleveland State Head Coach Dennis Gates. He is young. He is doing well in his second year as a head coach. He proved himself as an ACC level recruiter while an assistant at Florida State. However, Gates has two major issues. The first is making the jump from the Horizon League straight to the ACC. As we’ve seen with our most recent hires from the MAC and Ivy, coming into the ACC can be a hard adjustment. Gates’ time at FSU mitigates that a bit, but it would be a big leap of faith to assume he could come right into the ACC and win after two COVID interrupted seasons in the Horizon.

The biggest issue with Gates is not the Horizon League. It is his marriage to BC assistant AD Jocelyn Gates. Gates is the No. 2 person in the department with a variety of areas of responsibility, including HR. Hiring her husband for our second biggest revenue sport would present a ton of messy conflicts. BC has a very specific nepotism policy: From the BC EEO portion of the Employee Handbook “Employment of Relatives Employment of relatives is permitted, except in circumstances where an appointment would place related people in supervisory and subordinate roles within the same office or department, or in a situation where influence could be exerted, directly or indirectly, on future decisions concerning the status of employment, promotion, or compensation.” 

If Dennis Gates were hired, Jocelyn would presumably have to leave the Athletic Department, or BC would have to create a series of specialized protocols to deal with the numerous conflicts to arise. Is Pat Kraft really going to use his goodwill on his first hire on a complicated situation involving his No. 2? I don’t think so. It would be a HR nightmare and would also send a strange message to the fans and those in the industry. The guy had an opportunity to make a program-changing hire and a “nation-wide search” and ended up with the husband of the woman whose office is down the hall. Who knows? Maybe Dennis Gates is the next great college basketball coach and BC is letting him pass by because of perception. But I think Kraft wants this hire to improve the basketball team but also send the right message and energy to the fans and the college basketball world. It won’t be a hire when the first question will be “how is this going to work?”

Porter Moser: another guy everyone mentions

 

As soon as BC hired Pat Kraft, speculation kicked in that this meant BC would eventually hire Porter Moser to replace Jim Christian. The gossip made sense. Christian entered the year a lame duck and Moser seemed like a perfect candidate...who also had a history with Pat Kraft. (Kraft worked at Loyola-Chicago prior to Temple.)

There is a lot to like about Moser. However, I do have some concerns. There are parts of his profile that remind me of Steve Donahue. While that might not be fair, I will explain the comparison.

First, the good stuff:

Moser took Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four. Even if it was just lightning in a bottle, that accomplishment will always be impressive. If you include his CBI win, it speaks to an ability to coach his team through unique matchups and a good grasp for strategy and Xs & Os. He would come to BC with a long record as a head coach. While not perfect (Illinois St. fired him after three out of four losing seasons), he has been competitive at every stop and built a really good program at Loyola. He played at Creighton and coached at Loyola, so he understands the Jesuit community and would seemingly be comfortable at BC.

My concern:

Like Donahue, Moser has won with a very specific blueprint that works great at Loyola but would have to undergo major adjustments at BC. He currently recruits heavy in the Midwest and has had most of his success with tweeners and under the radar guys from Illinois and Indiana. (His current roster has three southerners, two international and the rest from the Midwest.) That is great for him and clearly a great model for Loyola-Chicago. However, BC is a different pitch. While we have also thrived with under the radar types, we need guys with a bit higher ceilings and we usually have to recruit nationwide. If Moser comes to BC, he can't make the same mistake Donahue made of thinking he can out scheme the ACC talent with a roster constructed like his old ones. 

If Moser ends up being the hire, it would say a lot about the faith Kraft has in him. That would be a nice endorsement. I hope they have the type of relationship -- and Kraft understands BC enough to help his former colleague adjust his midmajor, midwest model to Boston and the ACC.

The challenge with any first time head coaches

 

Michigan assistant and Boston College alum Howard Eisley is another recurring name in this BC coaching search. Eisley has a lot going for him. He is a key assistant at an elite program. He had a long NBA career and then transitioned into NBA assistant roles. He is a proud BC guy looking for his shot. Oh, and it also helps that he has a son who is an elite prospect. But I don't think BC should hire Eisley or any first time head coach this time around.

I am sure Pat Kraft will talk to some guys who have never bee head coaches. Names floated include Celtics assistant Jay Larranaga, Gonzaga's Tommy Lloyd (who I advocated for in the past) and Villanova's Kyle Neptune. All have great resumes and promising upsides. The issue is we don't know their downsides.

BC is in a better position than it has been with regards to basketball hires. We have more money. We have facilities upgrades close to becoming official. We are in the elite conference yet there is potential to break into the top half of that conference. We don't need to take a risk on an unknown. Pat Kraft can go out and show BC is serious about basketball and get a proven winner. 

There is always the risk that the proven winner might not win at BC and that one of these assistants we pass up goes onto great things. I am okay with that potential trade off. I want BC to get back to respectable and fun basketball. Let's go find as close to a sure thing as we can.

Getting the Cooley and Coen talk out of the way

BC should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Al Skinner. BC also should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Steve Donahue. Now for the third time in just over a decade, BC has a chance to hire either of the former Skinner assistants. While there are numerous reasons why it won't happen again, I still need to address both and advocate why I think both are better than 90% of the names being floated this time around.

The case for either

While much has changed and the future looks more promising than the last decade, BC remains a unique job. A coach who is familiar with the institutional challenges and strengths has a huge head start on most candidates. Due to their previous time at BC, both coaches know what can work at BC and understand how to recruit and coach at BC.

Both have accomplished enough since they've left to prove that they are their own men and not just two guys who were in the right place at the right time with Skinner. Now the fact a decade later neither are at some basketball power would lead some skeptics to say "BC didn't miss out on anything with those two." I would argue the opposite. Both have improved their respective programs and done it through multiple recruiting cycles to show that it wasn't a fluke. The fact that both stayed in the region is a bonus as they wouldn't have to rebuild recruiting connections nor even make difficult decisions about uprooting families.

Some fans will argue that both are limited and neither would take BC to the next level. While I am optimistic about both, I understand this concern. But my belief is that even if neither ever win the ACC or get us to a Final Four, they both would provide stability and credibility and leave BC in a better place than we are now.

The case against 

As soon as I post this, Providence fans will immediately start saying that BC can't afford Cooley and he will never leave. I know that BC can afford him because we have much more money than Providence athletics. In fact any school that didn't play football this fall is seeing their athletic revenue in freefall. Cooley makes more than Christian did, so BC would have to pay him more than we've ever paid a basketball coach. It can be done. Will it? I don't know. BC is talking big about budgets. Would Ed leave? I don't know. Villanova showed that you can win a National Championship from the Big East. Would the chance to go to the ACC make a difference? It doesn't hurt to ask.

Aside from the Cooley will never leave crowd, there are those Cooley critics who think he is all about recruiting and will never get the most out of his rosters. I understand that, but still think his track record and fit will be better than most of our candidates.

With Bill Coen, the question is not whether he would take the job. He would. The question is can he win at BC. His Northeastern record is pretty good, but not dominant. He also works the transfer market hard for his talent. That sort of strategy is harder to pull off in the ACC. But my belief remains that he is better than most of the names floated and better than nearly all of the guys who only have mid-major experience.

Will it matter?
BC didn't hire these guys before, so odds are not great they get hired this time. But if I am Pat Kraft, after I talk to the big names, I don't go further down the list than these two. BC needs to get to respectability first and both Cooley and Coen can provide that type of basketball.

A reminder about the media hammering BC for the Christian firing

BC fired Jim Christian Sunday and immediately some national basketball guys started ripping the decision given that it is midseason, COVID and all the other extenuating circumstance. All the shots at BC are silly and shortsighted and done because the media guys tend to be coach and agent friendly. That's it. They liked Christian and have been carrying his water for his entire tenure at BC. He was unceremoniously dumped and so they are using social media to stick up for one of the "good guys." But it means nothing in the long run.

What matters now is what Pat Kraft does with the extra time and his own media friendly type (look for Pete Thamel to get most of the scoops). 

The media will shit all over the opportunity and say that no one wants this job. That happens every time. However, things are a little different this go around. The basketball facility -- while not officially announced -- is much closer to a reality than it has ever been. The ACC will remain daunting but Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Miami and FSU are all likely to go through coaching changes during our next basketball coach's tenure. That is a lot of shake up and a lot of uncertainty and opportunity. (And if all those schools don't make changes then our new coach will be going up against a series of coaches in their late 70s, which is highly different from prime Coach K and Roy.) I also think the player friendly rules the NBA is taking on development will change the landscape of college basketball in a good way for a place like BC (I will explain that in a future post).

For now, sit back and watch what Kraft does. This is his first big decision and it looks like there are plenty of good candidates in the mix. 

BC decides not to go bowling

 

Dating back to TOB, BC placed importance on being "bowl eligible." The emphasis always seemed like a hedge for the day when BC was eligible yet not selected due to our travel reputation. This year BC is once again "bowl eligible" but for the first time ever decided to skip the postseason and call it a day. 

I personally am disappointed because I would have gladly watched the game from the comfort of my home surrounded by my family, basking in the afterglow of Christmas. I am not the one who would have crammed in game prep with exams and then missed Christmas with my family for a random game in Tampa on December 26. And that bowl was the optimal choice at this point. BC could have been sent to Boca during exams or even Annapolis. 

In normal years and normal conditions bowls are a reward. The players get money, gifts and swag. The team travels for multiple days and is hosted by the city. None of that would have happened this year. It would have been like a normal road game -- fly in, play, fly out. The team -- which has been in isolation since June -- would carry out COVID protocols for another two weeks just for this TV game. And looming over any commitment is that the game could be cancelled at any minute if something breaks down with the host city, the opponent or even BC. Is that fair to the kids? Is that even fun?

All the bowls outside the playoffs are sort of pointless. I know from experience how hard it is to justify these games. Last year I had to give my family pep talks to stick out the rain delay in Birmingham. AJ Dillon wasn't there. Why were the Maloneys?

Maybe COVID and an expanded playoff will kill the minor bowls all together. I love the novelty of seeing BC play a random opponent in a strange city. I want the players to get paid (even if it is non-cash) and have an "experience." And as I always say, more BC Football is a good thing. But this year maybe more is not better. 2020 was a great year for BC Football. There was hope for the future and excitement in the present. Why ruin that memory, that feeling and that momentum for a pointless game that the players' don't want? They gave us their heart this year. We should give them their Christmas.

Haf full

As frustrating and disappointing it was to lose to Virginia Saturday, I was a bit surprised by the number of people online who are upset about the season. I am not. In fact, I think this season was a huge success.

Every transition is different. This was not like TOB to Jags or Jags to Spaz, where we had lots of staff carryover and kept whole units consistent. This was a whole refresh and more like the transition of Spaz to Addazio. We changed Offensive and Defensive philosophy. We found a new QB. We put transfers all over the field. And we installed all this new info without a full spring and with all sorts of new restrictions due to COVID.

While six wins seems too familiar to BC fans, you have to remember we exceeded the oddsmakers', computers' and media's expectations. This was also six wins out of 11 games and this was the first time we ever played 10 P5 schools in one season. This schedule doesn't even compare to any we've faced since Henning's second year (and even Henning had Temple and Rutgers on the schedule).

But beyond the win total and dealing with the pandemic, I loved how Hafley handled games. We saw comebacks. We saw aggressiveness. We saw an emotional passionate coach, but not one who was not a bully, loudmouth or a goof ball. 

Was it perfect? No. There were a few issues that have been well discussed. Some units that were supposed to have been our best and deepest (Oline and LBs) looked to have taken a step back. Was is position coaching or scheme or overestimating the talent on hand? I don't know. It will certainly be something to follow going forward. The penalties were also inexcusable. Hafley admits he doesn't mind aggressiveness that results in penalties. That's fine. But there were plenty that we purely stupid. He's got to find a way to cut down on those. He has shown the can instill discipline. Look how he handled COVIP protocols. Now he just needs to use those same tenets to make sure the players play smart.

But why I am more optimistic about Hafley than I've been about any first year coach in my time as a BC fan, is that he showed strengths in game management, game planning and program management. Those are the things that are so hard to improve. Too often coaches are stuck in their ways or old school thinking, or are just not good at that stuff.  The stuff he needs to fix -- position coaches, talent, depth. Those things are fixable. Never getting a feel for a game is not.

All of this is still speculative. Hafley might never be much more than Addazio. But I am betting otherwise. I think this season was just the start and I see more great things to come. 

Game Day Info: Virginia

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Low 50s with no chance to rain.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Virginia preview

As everyone else's season devolves into chaos, controversy and cancellations, our season is just...ending. We are playing an afternoon game against a .500 Virginia team with very little at stake. But it is still an opportunity. Another win is another statement. I also think that the unknown bowl situation does add a little juice to the matchup. This might be BC's last game. It would be important for all to end on a high note.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There has been a lot of chatter about BC's bowl prospects given that the lower tier bowls are cancelling seemingly every day. The picture is also complicated by the one time rule that all teams are eligible regardless of record or games played. These sort of nebulous circumstances never go our way. Yet I remain hopeful. Ticket sales and travel are less of an issue this year. TV ratings rule and we are a proven TV draw. In the end I think a win over Virginia assures a bowl bid. A loss hurts, but is not crushing. I think ESPN and the ACC will put a lot of pressure on our bowl partners and someone will take us.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stay aggressive in the passing game. With Jurk not at 100% or with Grosel potentially getting time, there is the temptation to play conservatively. That is not a good idea. We are at our best when we are going deep and passing early. UVA has been burned in the passing game. I imagine Zay and CJ could do damage against their secondary.
2. Keep the running game simple. The zones and stretches looked good against Louisville. Keep doing that. It will also help the play action.
3. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. While not as careless as Louisville, Virginia will cough up the ball. We have to be looking for it and also get back to stripping the ball whenever we can.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 6-0
-- Hafley is 2-2 on the road
-- Mendenhall is 17-22 in ACC play
The current line is BC+4

Factoid
Mendenhall's first game as a head coach was vs BC.

Scoreboard Watching
Nothing really impacts us at this point. I guess you could argue that it would help the ACC to have both Notre Dame and Clemson win, so they enter the ACC Championship game with one combined loss and in the driver seat for playoff spots. But at this point I am rooting for Clemson to destroy the Irish. This isn't some bitter BC fan mad at our rivals. It is more about the ACC bailing out Notre Dame and then springboarding the Irish into the playoffs. They are good. But what does the ACC get out of this if Notre Dame wins it all? (ND hosts Cuse and Clemson is at VT.)

I hope to see...that BC is so far ahead that they can empty the bench and get all of the walkons and freshman on the field at some point. Without having cupcakes on the schedule and by playing mostly close games, there hasn't been extended time for all the guys in the program. Hopefully it comes this weekend.

BC is in trouble if...we can't get QB pressure. I was fooled. When our front four destroyed Duke, I thought they were going to be pleasant surprise. Since that game they have been Ok to bad (depending on the game). We need to get pressure this week and we need it to start up front.

Overall
I am still surprised Virginia is favored. I know Virginia comes in relatively hot. They are at home. Our QB health is a big question mark. But I still think our passing game is enough to score plenty of them. I think, like last week, we also force a few turnovers and hold on in the end.
Final Score: BC 35, Virginia 27

Game Day Info: Louisville

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Cold and crisp

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Louisville preview

While BC has done everything right during the pandemic, this is the first true test of BC and Hafley's ability to juggle and change. This game was on, then rescheduled, then back on again but with a different time and date. In theory it should not be a big deal. The team had more than enough time to turn it back on mentally, but you never know. These are still young, immature players in an unprecedented time.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is lots of talk about BC's future uniform and shoe deal. If you don't follow this, Under Armour started breaking their current college deals and are not renewing others. It seems highly unlikely they will renew the BC deal and there is plenty of talk that the current deal might be cut short. Is this part of the college sports revenue model reset? Who knows? But taking one major bidder out of the process ultimately makes any deal (including BC's) less valuable. Hopefully Pat Kraft can make a deal that keeps the revenue close to its current levels. What I really hope for is that whatever partner we select, we see an improvement in the selection and options for BC merchandise. I also wouldn't mind seeing BC increase its presence with all potential licencing partners.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. Louisville's passing game is not particularly consistent. If we stop their run, we will control the tempo and probably keep them from scoring much.
2. Big plays from Zay. Louisville's D is ok. We probably can't chip away at them, so it will be up to get some big plays, which means Zay needs to break a few.
3. Aggressive game management. Hafley made some gutsy calls against Clemson and Notre Dame. We've been off two weeks and are coming off a loss. I think a few big plays could help the momentum and the confidence of the team.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 7-5
-- BC is 3-0 against the spread vs Louisville the last three years
-- Satterfield is 7-8 in ACC play
The current line is BC-1

Factoid
This is technically Senior Day, but obviously no parents this year.

Scoreboard Watching
If Notre Dame beats UNC, they are probably headed to the ACC Championship Game. I know none of us want to see the Irish do well, but if they go undefeated in the regular season and then lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, both teams will likely make the playoffs. Two ACC playoff teams is good for the entire conference.

I hope to see...Jurkovec healthy. As we now know, he separated his shoulder towards the end of the Clemson game and that effected his accuracy against Cuse and Notre Dame. We need him healthy for this game and for the season finale.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Louisville is somewhat sloppy. If we just play our usual game, we should get turnovers. We can't help them out by giving any back.

Overall
Despite the layoff and the close point spread, I think this is a good matchup for us. I don't think they can score with us and think we will be opportunistic enough to get a few turnovers. If Jurk is truly healthy, this isn't even close.
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 21

Numerous questions heading into the BC Men's Basketball season

The pandemic saved Jim Christian's job. Instead of using the first few days after the ACC Tournament to finalize a decision and set the course for a new hire, the College Basketball world shutdown and the whole college industry followed shortly thereafter. Despite a strong desire from some, BC leadership decided times and finances were too uncertain and decided to keep Christian around for another season. If someone had come in to cover the expense of a coaching change like Wake Forest did, would BC had made a move? Maybe. If an A List coach like John Beilein had real interest, would BC have made a move? Maybe. But those are just "what if"s. Jim Christian is back and our new AD Pat Kraft has to evaluate what he has done and where the program is heading...all while both men try to navigate the uncertainty of another COVID season.

What's new?

Christian primarily rebuilt the roster with various bodies from mid-majors. This gives him depth and versatility. While all the guys would be contributors on mid-level ACC teams, none are program changers. The big new name freshman is DeMarr Langford Jr (his brother Makai Ashton-Langford is one of the transfers mentioned). Langford could be the type of piece that makes a difference. He's local, his father is connected on the AAU scene and he has enough upside to tantalize any ACC team. BC needs Langford Jr to succeed and then find a New England player like him every year.

What can we expect out of Tabbs?

Aside from the transfers and recruits, Wynston Tabbs is another talent infusion. The challenge is no one knows what to expect. Will he be the player he was two years ago? Can he be better? All the gossip has been good. Now we just need to see it on the court and pray he stays healthy.

What are the expectations for the season?

The basketball world expects very little of BC this year. We were picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll. Kenpom has BC as 86th. ESPN's BPI has BC at 87th.  Bracketology has BC out of the tournament. No one expects BC to do anything this year. I guess that helps, in that a .500 year in ACC play might be a good storyline. 

How does COVID factor into the season?

No fans will be at home games (but that doesn't feel new). Any outbreaks will create schedule changes. BC elected to play in a preseason bubble which means we have our toughest non-conference slate in years.

What does Christian have to do to keep his job?

I have no idea and anyone who claims they know is speculating. Pat Kraft worked at a series of basketball schools in Loyola-Chicago, Indiana and Temple. He knows basketball can make a difference to an Athletic Department and University. Kraft has a front row seat to the energy and excitement Hafley brought to the football team. Regardless of some institutional issues, BC Basketball remains an underperforming source of revenue and a missed opportunity to promote the school and engage the alumni. A coaching change can make a difference. Even the Women's program showed that things can get better prior to a new arena or practice facility. 

But regardless of all the reasons there might be to make a change and all the underachieving prior to this year, no one knows what BC can afford. Revenue is down in all areas, including Athletics. I have no idea if BC leadership will have an appetite to make a change this year, especially if Christian and crew exceed the low, low expectations for the year. 

The good and bad of the new adjusted schedule

While all of college football has seen their schedules turned upside down, BC has mostly be unaffected...until this week. Because of Miami's COVID outbreak, the final few weeks of ACC Football were rescheduled and pushed BC's home game against Louisville to December 12. There are some good things and bad things about the move, but for BC, it is mostly positive.

The Good...

This give BC some time to recharge. Our next game won't be until December 5 vs Virginia. Hopefully by then Jurkovec shoulder will be in less pain. Also, the various nagging injuries and issues that players' have will have some time to recover. This mini break also gives the coaching staff some time to self scout and figure out what needs work. I assume this will also give them time to implement new things or counters to our current looks and tendencies.

For a team that didn't have spring ball or extended summer work, this can be a bit of catch up. You can work the younger guys in practice. You can try new things.

Finally the break allows extra prep for Virginia and Louisville. Both of these teams are flawed. BC can win both and should expect to win both. A seven win season would be a huge statement for Hafley to the college football world and a big accomplishment for this team.

The Bad...

Two more weeks also means two more weeks of trying to hold off the virus. BC has done an incredible job of keeping the players COVID free. Now you throw in the communal aspects of Thanksgiving and there is an increased chance for a spike. 

I hope the team continues its commitment (and keeps getting lucky) with regards to the virus spread. I also hope that pushing the games back doesn't ultimately lead to their cancellation. The ACC built in this window for COVID issues. But if they happen during the final weeks, BC doesn't have any other areas of the calendar to slot the games.

Game Day: Notre Dame

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Chilly and in the 40s, but dry.

Radio: SiriusXM 194

TV: ABC

BC-Notre Dame preview

I know it is just a football game and the outside world doesn't really have an impact on the field. I know that if you play enough times, the better teams wins. I know this. You know this. Yet, here we are. If you're a BC fan you and reading this blog, you don't need to know the odds. You don't really follow BC to see us win Championship after Championship, like Alabama or Clemson. You watch and cheer and get invested for moments like this. You bathe yourself in the storylines, the emotion, and the karma of it all. The best Notre Dame team in 25 years, undefeated and coming off a huge win over a No. 1 team, comes to BC. It will be an eerie and empty Alumni due to COVID and 2020. BC will be wearing the Red Bandana uniforms. You know how this ends...let's do it!

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
With BC securing five wins last week, most of the bowl projections have us bowling somewhere. Since most of the bowl will be empty does it really make sense for any of the mid and lower tier bowls to actually take place in their designated location? It is just a TV show at this point. For example, why does the Pinstripe Bowl need to be played in an empty Yankee Stadium and in a shut down New York City. Why not just have all the TV-driven bowls played in domes in easily accessible and COVID friendly locations like Atlanta or Phoenix or in spots in Florida? It is probably safer, cheaper and easier on everyone.

Three Simple Keys
1. Run just enough to keep Notre Dame honest. We need a little running just so that the play action has some effectiveness. Otherwise, ramming the ball Addazio style is a huge mistake. This Notre Dame DL is that good. We need to throw the ball 40+ times.
2. Get back to stripping the ball. I know it is more opportunistic and hard to plan, but the games we've looked best are when we have one guy tackling and the next guy going for the ball. Book is generally careful, so it will have to be attacking the running backs and receivers.
3. Smart football. I am becoming a broken record with regards to penalties, but at this point it is our Achilles' heel.

Gambling Notes
-- Notre Dame leads the series 15-9
-- Notre Dame has won seven in a row.
-- Brian Kelly is 3-0 in Alumni
The current line is BC+13.5

Factoid
Because Boston College elected a white base, Red Bandana uniform, Notre Dame will be wearing their blue jerseys on the road...unless of course, the break out the greens again.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville vs Virginia. This game means nothing to most of the ACC. However, we still have to play both teams. Holding together a college team is tough during a losing season. It is especially tough during COVID. Everything these guys wanted is gone and now even football feels like drudgery. The loser of this game probably won't have much left in the tank when they play us.

I hope to see...a trick play or two. Hafley tried a short kick against UNC and fake fourth down against Clemson. I hope he has another planned for this weekend. Why not? We are the underdog and those types of plays feed our emotion and their anxiety.

BC is in trouble if...Jurk is off. No one is going to have more emotion than Phil Jurkovec this weekend. He has had a great season and proved the Irish staff wrong. But last week he was a little off on throws and was off on a few late in Clemson. Is it a nagging injury or just rushing? I don't know. But this weekend, he needs to play his best. 

Overall
I will admit this is a bad matchup for us. They are good in the trenches. We are not (this year). We are going to need a lot to go our way. But I think the Clemson hangover is real. I think we can score with them. We force a few turnovers and then win it late with a kick.
Final Score: BC 24, Notre Dame 21

Game Day: Syracuse

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In doors, so weather is not an issue. The Carrier Dome does have a new roof. The lighting however still seams the same on TV.

Radio: SiriusXM 385

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Syracuse preview

It is probably too early to put a tag on anything Hafley has done or say "Hafley's teams do..." but so far we seemingly play up (and down) to our opponent. That is great when playing Clemson. Not a good approach when taking on a depleted Syracuse team. The Orange are bad and reeling. BC is coming off a very emotional loss. This is the perfect opponent to set things straight. Let's do this and not take anything for granted.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Babers' contract with Syracuse is just the latest reminder that you don't want to get into expensive long-term contracts with college coaches. In most cases you are only bidding against yourself. But the problem is that the size of the buyout often keeps a school from making a move when one needs to be made. Babers turned one great season into a huge deal. And now that it looks like a fluke, Syracuse can't move on becuase they can't afford his allegedly $17 million buyout. (Like BC, Syracuse is a private school, so they don't have to report the size of the deal.) I am all for giving publicity extensions to reassure recruits, but committing big bucks to anyone is rarely worth it. If Hafely continues to have success, BC should pay him, but not lock themselves into anything that is burdensome.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get Long involved in the game. The deep balls and aggressiveness of last week was good. However, getting the ball to Long is a higher percentage play (in most cases) and helps both the running game and those home run balls we keep attempting.
2. Get pressure with just the front four. We got burned on blitzes last week. Syracuse's QBs are a mess (Culpepper is the likely starter) but they still have an offense designed to get rid of the ball quickly. If we get pressure with just four, there should be lots of chances to get turnovers and very few big plays.
3. Don't forget to runover them if needed. Our running attack isn't as good as last year's. But Cuse is still a mess at stopping the run. If we are struggling in the passing game, just give the ball to Bailey. It worked last year.

Gambling Notes
-- Syracuse leads the all-time series 31-21
-- BC is 5-12 in the Carrier Dome
-- Babers is 2-2 against BC
The current line is BC-14

Factoid
The home team has lost four straight in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
It is all about Clemson vs Notre Dame. Did we expose the Tigers last week? I think we sort of woke them up. I also think they were looking past us a bit. Now they get their shot at Notre Dame. I think they will bury the Irish to make a statement. But Notre Dame needs a strong showing too. The winner will basically control the ACC and probably end up in the playoffs (even if they lose an ACC Championship Game).

I hope to see...BC with less than six penalties. I keep harping on it, but it is ridiculous at this point. BC enters this weekend 101st in fewest penalties per game. We are not talented enough to get away with that.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Syracuse is not a good defensive team. We should score at will against them. The only way they stay in the game is if we give them the ball.

Overall
Mentally I have to get over Syracuse being the spoiler of many seasons. Hafley doesn't carry any of that baggage, so we shouldn't either. I think BC has more talent and a more explosive offense. They can't keep up with us and BC win's comfortably.
Final Score: BC 34, Syracuse 21

Game Day Info: Clemson

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In the 50s. Crisp and clear.

Radio: SiriusXM 380

TV: ABC

BC-Clemson preview

When we first joined the ACC, the Clemson games were such highlights. Obviously because BC won, but also because we battled and entered the games thinking we could win. Aside from a few in-game moments the last decade, there hasn't been much hope related to the Clemson match-up. We were led by dope, while they've ascended to unimaginable heights. This weekend we enter as a huge underdog again, facing potentially Clemson's best team ever (albeit without their all-world QB). I will predict a miracle win for the hell of it. But what's different is I know the gap between the programs is closing. It started closing the minute we hired Hafley. If we don't pull off the upset this year, I know our time is coming.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Organizers postponed the 2021 Boston Marathon to yet to be determined fall date. They pointed to the unknowns and the current Massachusetts' limits on road races. This is disappointing and indicates the odds of any normalcy with BC events (fans at hockey or hoops, graduation, etc.) are unlikely to change this school year. I don't get it. At some point won't someone mention that there have been outdoor marches, protests and riots and rallies all over the country without a direct link to outbreaks? There have been cross country races throughout the country. There have been large gatherings in Massachusetts. Why not have an outdoor road race with some of the best athletes in the world? Haven't we learned that sports can be done and are an important step back?

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't play ball control. While I understand the temptation to shorten the game, I don't think it will work. When Clemson loses it is always when a team really goes for it and is aggressive in the air. We have the playmakers. Go for broke!
2. Stop with the penalties. Hafley never seems as concerned about the penalties as we are, but there have been a lot of dumb ones. We can't have that this week.
3. Stop the run. With Lawrence out, all eyes turn to Etienne. Stop him and stop Clemson. Let Uiagalelei be the guy to beat us and let him do it by passing.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won nine in a row in the series
-- BC has not won at Clemson since 2007
-- Swinney is 82-16 in ACC games
The current line is BC+24

Factoid
This is the second time BC and Clemson have played on Halloween. Clemson beat BC on October 31, 1952, 13-0.

Scoreboard Watching
I will be paying attention to UNC-UVA. Because we don't play them regularly and because we have them at the end of the season, I haven't paid much attention to UVA. They seemingly are in a bad place but improved a bit last week. Are they going to turn things around this week against UNC? I am hoping they get crushed and are totally checked out when we play them.

I hope to see...fewer missed tackles. Nothing will give Clemson more confidence than one of those plays where guys miss tackles all over the field and they score on an 60-yard broken play.

BC is in trouble if...we don't score at least four touchdowns. This can't be one of those keep it close, get some field goals games. We need to be aggressive and put points on the board. 

Overall
COVID taking out Lawrence robbed BC of their 'shock the world' moment, but who cares? This is it. This is our chance. BC hangs with the elite for the game. Lots of back and forth. Final drive we go down the field and score to win it all. Let's Go!
Final Score: BC 28, Clemson 27

Clemson is a reminder why great football can change a school

The only people who seem to disbelieve the "Flutie effect" are the ones at Doug's alma mater. But it is real and now as the college market place changes, having really good football is even more important for a place like BC. Great football will remain the best marketing tool the school has. If you don't believe it, look no further than Clemson. 

In 2007, the last year before Dabo, Clemson had 14,504 applications for their freshmen class. Last year 29,070 applied to Clemson. The school is transformed. 42% of the students are now from out of state.

BC's needs to figure out many aspects of their experience. Who knows what students and parents will want and pay for. But supporting and demanding great football can be critical. Just look at Clemson.

Daz could never be Dabo, can Hafley be a BC version of the Clemson coach?

Every year when we play Clemson, I flagellate myself for being so wrong about Dabo, who is now arguably the best coach in College Football. There is no denying what he has done at Clemson. 

For a long time I advocated that Steve Addazio had the perfect personality and strengths to emulate Dabo at BC. We all know he never could. Although Addazio shared Swinney's emotion, big personality and love of recruiting, he never learned to empower his staff like Dabo, nor ever even came close to learning to manage a game like the Clemson coach. Now we have a new coach who shares some of Dabo's strengths. But I think Jeff Hafley can be more than Swinney...an improved, BC-version of Dabo.

The most obvious commonality I see between Swinney and Hafley is how they talk and relate to players. They both seem to relate to the kids and understand how to motivate through positivity and confidence. This persona and communication skills seem to be having a Dabo-like impact on BC recruiting. Players are excited to play for Hafley and that will hopefully translate to a talent upgrade. It is early and we are not privileged to all that is going on, but Hafley also seems to be giving his coordinators a lot of autonomy. Maybe not as much as Swinney gives his staff, but certainly more than we've seen from recent BC coaches. If Hafley can follow Swinney's model of finding the best players and coaches and then getting out of their way, he will have success.  

Swinney isn't just motivation and talent evaluation. He's also been aggressive as a game manager. Though it is early, I think Hafley has shown Dabo-like qualities when it comes to game management. We are aggressive and have played to win throughout. Hafley has also had his team managed and prepared for close, tight games. 

Where I think Hafley can be more than Dabo is in how he carries himself. Dabo's personality and background work at Clemson. I don't think it would work everywhere. Even if he won in Boston, I think the media and portions of our Alumni would never take him seriously. Hafley doesn't have that problem. Aside from the northeast roots, he also is more earnest and serious than Swinney. That professionalism and seriousness, combined with winning and emotion, will win over even the most cynical BC fan or Boston media member. 

I will preface this by saying that although Hafley might have more upside than Swinney, I don't think that means BC is going to win multiple National Championships. The schools are in two very different situations and have two different coaches. Hafley's NFL experience  means that any success will spark NFL interest. Dabo's aw shucks shtick had most of the NFL dismissing him until recently. Clemson can keep Dabo happy financially to the point where the only jobs people even speculate about for him are the NFL and Alabama. If Hafley becomes a hot name, there will be plenty of College Football factories that come calling. I don't think he will take the first job offered to him, but I also realize that if the right one comes along, it will be tough to turn down.

The unknown in all of this is how Hafley will manage himself. Dabo is one of the rare people in any profession, who stepped back after failure, recognized the mistakes he was making and then had the ability to fix those problems. Most people let their egos get in the way. Hafley seems to have the right sort of personality to self-assess. He has owned up to his mistakes and shown that he can fix them game-to-game. If he can implement those same program-wise fixes, we are going to enjoy our own version of Dabo. 

Game Day Info: Georgia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Mid 60s and perfect.

Radio: SiriusXM 207

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Georgia Tech preview

Normally I would love BC coming in off a sound defeat. It would seemingly be a great opportunity for Hafley to rally the troops and get everyone sharp and motivated. Georgia Tech complicates that since they are coming off a historic loss. Clemson clobbered them. They will also be looking to regroup and refocus. While neither team is destined for a National Championship, this game is critical. One team will bounce back and return to feeling good about their season. The loser will probably start wondering if their early season success was all a mirage.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The Big Ten is back this weekend and the remaining FBS holdouts are following in the coming weeks. I've been pretty adamant from the beginning that these teams should be playing, so I am glad to see them back on the field. Unfortunately the movement to unionize college football seems to have lost momentum. Perhaps the discussion has moved behind the scenes and out of the public. More likely, by allowing the players back with a few concessions, the discussion went away. That would be unfortunate. The college sports model is broken and exploitative. The health, financial, and logistical challenges of COVID 19 provided an opportunity to fix things. Aside from some sports getting cut, it looks like not much will change. Hopefully when things calm down, someone in leadership somewhere will look to improve the situation for student athletes and the athletic departments caught in the middle of this bad system.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pass protection. If Jurk has time, guys will get open. GT's pass D has plenty of holes and weaknesses. And even if Jurk can't find guys open, if we protect he should be able to run for first downs.
2. Don't give up on the run game. When passing is working and Tech has so much trouble stopping the pass, the temptation is to come out throwing. I want BC to also use the run game. It looked better against Virginia Tech (aside from the fumbles).
3. Don't allow big plays. Georgia Tech will go for the home run passes. We need to make sure we stop those potential game changers.

Gambling Notes
-- Georgia Tech leads the all-time series 7-2
-- Georgia Tech is 3-0 at Alumni
-- Hafley is 2-1 at Alumni
The current line is BC-3.5

Factoid
BC Athletic Director Pat Kraft hired one of the head coaches in this game...just not the one coaching his current Football team. (Kraft hired Geoff Collins when he was at Temple.)

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse at Clemson. The Orange look terrible and this might be the best team Dabo has ever had. Could the Tigers score 100? I don't know. Syracuse usually gives them a game, but this year I expect a blowout. A bad Syracuse is good for BC since we often recruit similar players and have them on the schedule every year. I don't mind them falling apart as Hafley tries to build up BC.

I hope to see...Garwo and Bailey hold onto the ball. While luck and carelessness are factors in fumbling, there is a mental element too. Both guys have shown they have issues protecting the ball so far in this short season. May they please hold on this week and get it out of their respective heads!

BC is in trouble if...we don't get third down stops. For the first time in weeks, we are not playing an elite QB. Sims will make mistakes and bad throws. We have to be smart and not let broken plays become third down conversions.

Overall
I think this will feel a bit like a shoot out. Only BC will capitalize on some GT mistakes and score TDs when they are scoring field goals. Jurk has a big day and we put last week behind us.
Final Score: BC 35, Georgia Tech 23

Ugly football but still optimistic

The fact that as BC's turnovers piled up, I still felt we could win is a huge sign of progress. But it was not to be as for the first time Hafley lost decisively as BC's coach. Turnovers are frustrating all the time, but especially on a night when BC moved the ball. The maligned OLine looked better but our RBs couldn't hold onto the ball and Jurk got careless a few times. But I still believe we are on the right track. It is up to Hafley to reset and get things fixed. I think he will.

Hafley: "Unfortunately in football, if you make mistakes like we did, you can't win. We'll look at the film and fix our mistakes."

— Tyler Calvaruso (@tyler_calvaruso) October 18, 2020

Game Day Info: Virginia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: The game will start in the 50s and drop to the 40s. This is our coldest game of the season so far.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Virginia Tech preview

I understand that is is very, very early in the Hafley era. I also know he will have to prove a lot as he brings in his own players, adjusts to a normal year, adjusts to teams getting a feel for how he coaches, and many other hurdles. But I am pretty confident he is the best and most aggressive game manager we've had in my time as a BC fan. Jags was aggressive but it always felt like he was going with his gut and sort of a gambler, where Hafley seems more analytical. The fact that we've been in close games nearly every week and continue to push to score instead of being conservative is a huge change. The fact that we can run a two minute drill is a huge change. But most important is that the sidelines don't seem chaotic during crunch time. Think of how manic Addazio and his crew were during the final minute against Wake years ago. That's not happening now and I think BC will win more just because of that approach. This week won't be the typical trip to Blacksburg, but that even-handed, smart approach should make a difference.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Every week BC previews their uniform combo on social media and BC twitter (including me) weighs in on the latest look. This year has been heavy on the throwbacks. I have stated this in multiple places, but for the record let me say that I strongly prefer the throwbacks to our current uniform. However, I would like to see a full uniform refresh that has aspects of the throwback but looks most like the '90s BC uniform. There are plenty of rumors that a new look is coming. Hopefully it makes everyone happy...and has a single helmet stripe!

Three Simple Keys
1. Slow down their running game. It really is that simple. Our D has been good enough in bend but don't break mode. This week will be more about stopping the run on first and second down.
2. More production from Lamot. Because we've played so much nickle, Lamot hasn't been on the field as much. With VT being run first, that might change. Hopefully that means more support for McDuffie and Richardson.
3. Other guys in the passing game. It is nice that VT has to focus on Long and Flowers. That means other guys should have lots of opportunities. We could use big plays from Lewis, Gill and even Levy and Bailey.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 18-10
-- Fuente is 34-20 at Lane Stadium
-- BC has never won three in a row in this series
The current line is BC+12

Factoid
Henning, Jags, and Addazio each won on their first trips to Blacksburg. TOB and Spaz did not.

Scoreboard Watching
I am curious to see how Louisville does with Notre Dame. I think the Irish are very overrated, however, Louisville has been a major dissapointment. Can they regroup against Notre Dame? Can someone show the Irish are not a Top 5 team? We face both and I think both of their records are decieving. It should be interesting to see if they play a close game.

I hope to see...continued great punting from Carlson. Obviously, I truly hope we never punt, but if we do, I trust Carlson. He's been very good so far this season.

BC is in trouble if...the offensive line continues its uneven play. Hafley addressed it after the game and with the media. He says we are just a few plays here and there from looking great. I hope he is right, because the breakdowns and misses put way too much pressure on Jurk to escape or throw into bad situations.

Overall
I don't get what the oddsmakers see. Is Virginia Tech good? Probably. But I think we are good too and have proven that we play to the level of our opponent (for better or worse). I think this is a back and forth game with lots of passing. I think a few turnovers go BC's way and we hold on to win.
Final Score: BC 31, Virginia Tech 27

Enjoying the roller coaster ride

Close games are not good for your health or your W-L record. But after three weeks of tense, back and forth games, I am thrilled that BC beat Pitt to improve to 3-1. But like our other close games, the big picture is still very encouraging. We have plenty of areas to improve (penalties, OL execution, Jurkovec's decision making) but we are still winning. The winning is coming from areas that have been much harder for BC to fix in previous administrations (in-game adjustments, aggressive play calling, late game execution).

The other thing that is great about a coaching change, is that there is always some guy who was overlooked or misused by the previous regime, who blossoms. For BC that is Zay Flowers. He had a huge day and made numerous unbelievable catches. 

There is still a lot of football left to play this year, but this first month of games has provided lots of hope and promise and wins...and that's all we wanted.  

Game Day: Pitt

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s with no chance to rain. Another perfect football day

Radio: SiriusXM 193 

TV: The ACC Network. If you don't have the ACC Network, perhaps get a temporary login for Hulu+ or Youtube TV.

BC-Pitt preview

We just played Pitt in November, yet BC Football and the world has changed dramatically since then. My fear at the time was gutting out that win might have saved Addazio. We know it didn't and instead led to the welcome change in leadership. This Pitt game is unlikely to provide any sort of capstone or turning point, however, it should be fun and winnable, which is all we can ask for at this time. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While winning is primary, I think how this season is playing out should be good for Hafley and BC's recruiting. Stadiums are empty everywhere so using the "no fans" argument against us is negated for now. Hafley is getting a ton of positive media coverage, especially after last week's impromptu rant after the Long injury. The student life is still not back to normal, but BC is providing a more traditional college experience than most. If the team wins, the BC sales pitch will look that much better.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stops on 3rd down. Last week was beyond frustrating. The whole point of a bend but don't break D is not to allow long 3rd down conversions. Pickett is a good QB. If you give him time, he will find someone open. They need to bring him down.
2. Go deep more. The ease in which Jurkovec can fling it is probably something we haven't had since Shinskie. The late TD called back that Long caught was just a rope. We need to challenge donwfield more. The explosive plays can be backbreakers for Pitt.
3. Stay aggressive in Special Teams. The short kickoff didn't work, but the idea was good. I think we need to keep trying things like that, especially as an underdog.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 17-14
-- Pitt is 8-7 all time in Alumni
-- Narduzzi is 14-12 following a loss
The current line is BC+6

Factoid
This is the first time we've played Pitt in back to back years since the Big East days.

Scoreboard Watching
The only ACC game that matters -- other than ours -- is Miami-Clemson. Are the 'Canes back (again)? This season is already unpredictable. Who knows what the playoff will bring. The ACC will likely have at least one team in it, but if Miami proves to be great, maybe two can get in.

I hope to see...BC establish some sort of run game. I am not Addazio but I do think not running more is hurting the offense. So much would open up if we had believable play action. I also think Bailey is too much of an asset not to use.

BC is in trouble if...we are down going into the 4th Quarter. As much as I embrace the feeling of always being in the game, digging out of a hole game after game is not good for anyone. BC came up short last week. Let's not have that again.

Overall
I think this is a relatively low scoring defensive game. I think BC gets lucky with some turnovers to stall Pitt drives. I think instead of trying to comeback, this week we get ahead and hold on to the win.
Final Score: BC 21, Pitt 14

An encouraging loss

I don't like to fallback on "moral victories" but I will say this: I am a happy BC fan right now. We've played three games which I would call B/B- ball and are 2-1, including a near upset of a Top 20 team. And most exciting was once again, I never thought BC was out of the game and in the final moments I thought they were going to win. It is nice to feel that way.

There were still plenty of problems. Too many stupid penalties. Still way too much confusion up front and issues with the OLine. Jurk still has some bad decisions, including holding onto the ball too long and missing open guys. But I will say Hafley managed the game well and more than just the clock and timeouts, he also pushed the right emotional buttons. These are still young players who need those wake up calls.

I will try to have more in the coming days, but I feel real good about the season and the program.

Game Day: North Carolina

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s, no rain

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: ABC

BC-North Carolina Preview

I don't know if we can consider last week magic. If you take your BC colored glasses off, it was more of a case of escaping with a win after a sloppy day. But those are the types of wins that often lead to a special season. You need some luck. You need some growing pains. And you need a little bonding among the players and coaches. The emotions of last week will be gone by kickoff, but maybe the learning and luck will still be there. We need both to pull off the upset.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I don't know how plugged in the regular readers are to what's happening on campus, but BC is generally making more restrictions related to COVID. Based on their moves, I don't know if we will see students at sporting events any time soon. I also don't know what new and returning students even think of the BC experience right now. Going to and covering BC sports were big parts of my experience. I feel for those who miss it. I hope they realize how special this Hafley season might be. Even though they can't be in Alumni, being around it still might provide some great memories.

Three Simple Keys
1. Figure out the run game. We've done a lot on the ground so far and it has been a mixed bag. The basic stretch looked good. Some of the counter trey stuff was a mess. I liked Jurk running. I didn't like the direct handoff stuff to Levy. My suggestion is keep it easy to manage with some zones and option reads. Everything else can be put on the backburner for now.
2. Help the DBs in the red zone. Leaving Sebastion or any of the corners out on an island is dangerous. We don't have that level of talent there right now. Either give them more help or bring so much pressure that the passing is off.
3. Get back to stripping the ball out. Hafley said it was a priority. That showed against Duke. Last week the guys weren't seemingly as active. This week they need those takeaways.

Gambling Notes
-- UNC leads the series 2-5
-- UNC has won two in a row
-- North Carolina is 1-1 at Alumni
The current line is BC+13.5

Factoid
Mack Brown has coached more than 300 games, but this will be his first trip to Alumni as a coach.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson v Virginia will be interesting. We all know Clemson is great and will probably be our toughest game. However, ending the season with UVA will also be tough. Seeing how the 'Hoos handle Clemson might give us an idea of just how tough.

I hope to see...better tackling. This might seem like silly thing to harp on, especially with how COVID put limitations on spring ball and game prep, but there were plenty of missed tackles against Texas State. The game shouldn't have been as close as it was. If BC makes five more tackles, half those drives end without even getting into BC territory.

BC is in trouble if...Jurkovec holds the ball too long. While the OLine has been very inconsistent, many of the sacks are also on Jurkovec for holding onto the ball too long and not throwing it away. He can't keep taking drive killing sacks.

Overall
This game will be tough. We looked out of sorts last week and certainly not capable of hanging with one of the better teams in the ACC. But my hope is the wakeup call from last week leads to a cleaner, better game this week. I think this goes back and forth and BC holds on to win another close game at home.
Final Score: BC 28, UNC 24