And now we all wait on Dillon news

After his usual press conference and media appearances Monday, Addazio remained purposefully vague on AJ Dillon's injury. He says Dillon is showing improvement but his status for Louisville remains unknown. Ankle injuries can be nagging and take longer than expected to recover. Just look at how Landry's issues became a weekly unknown last year. The oddsmakers have us as big favorites against Louisville already, so the team should win without him. However, having Dillon does change the dynamic of the team and the game.

While our offense did show it can function without him in the second half, Dillon does two things that no one else on the roster can. First he is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. It doesn't mean he will make something out of nothing every touch, but he can do it enough to change games. Second, he draws such attention from the other team, that he opens up plays for other players. The drop off shouldn't be so severe without him, but until someone steps up, it is fact.

Without gossip or insight, I feel like Dillon will get back on the field this weekend. We know he walked on it right after and Vegas clearly baked in his return into the spread. But like last week, we will just have to wait until either Dillon or Addazio tells us some news.

Some postgame talk and looking ahead

Here is Addazio after the game. He is saying the right things. Although he could go a bit further but he's right in a lot of the issues and he is right to take blame. That's the first step in addressing the problem. Now can he fix them? As I said Saturday, many of these Addazio problems are recurring and fixable. Will he make the adjustments?

You know who is buying what Addazio is selling? The oddsmakers. As of Sunday night, we are a 13.5 favorite against Louisville.

Comeback falls short at State

I love the fight. I love the gutsy D. I hate the hole BC fell in during the first half. Lots to digest. I will have more tonight and tomorrow. I guess BC is still alive for a decent season but there is so much inconsistency.

In-game comments post: NC State

Here is BC's chance to fix its problems or let them continue to hurt this team. Go Eagles.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Friday picks

The picks keep improving each week. Here are this week's.

Picks in bold

Mizzou-1.5 at South Carolina

Illinois-5 at Rutgers

Syracuse-3.5 at Pitt

Navy-3 at Air Force

LSU-2 at Florida

Kansas State+4.5 at Baylor

Miami (OH)+5 at Akron

Arizona State+2.5 at Colorado

Auburn-3.5 at Mississippi State

Cal-2.5 at Arizona

Last week I was 6-4. I am 22-29-1 on the season.

BC-NC State preview

Because of the TOB connection and Doeren and Addazio getting hired during the same cycle, I constantly feel like we have to use NC State as some sort of benchmark. Doeren's been slightly more successful than Addazio, but I don't know if it has been any more fulfilling for NC State fans. Both programs and coaches seem to have ceilings and I think either side will only feel happy when those ceilings are broken.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) NC State and ECU just scheduled a tentative game for December 1 to make up for the games each lost with the hurricane (against different teams). If either makes their respective conference championship game, then this game won't happen. I guess I applaud the schools for scheduling a game. More football is better than less football. However, it seems really unnecessary for anything other than the gate revenue. The media contracts are covered. There was probably some sort of insurance related to any cancellation problems. At that point it is unlikely that either will need a win. So why do it? Also, can you imagine the fight BC would go through with the locals to get a replacement game at Alumni with only two months notice?

Three Simple Keys
1. Rush for more than 200 yards. Regardless of it if is Dillon or Glines or a collective of BC guys, BC needs to establish the run and stick with it. We have an advantage on the Oline. Let's lean on it.
2. Great LB play. This group has been collectively the most disappointing. All the guys coming off injury seem a step too slow. We need them to come up huge this weekend. No missed tackles. No getting swallowed up on running plays. No letting short easy passes over the middle turn into long gains.
3. Good decisions from Brown. I feel like Brown is on the edge of something really big, but it will only come when he is making good reads and also when he can be a slight threat to run. There are big plays for him to make if he does the right thing.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 3-2 vs Doeren
-- BC leads the series 9-6
-- Addazio is 14-13 on the road while coaching BC
The current line is BC+6

Factoid
The road team has won four straight in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
Once again a Notre Dame game matters to us. This week the Irish take on our future opponent Virginia Tech. I didn't expect VT to be good this year, but they are looking decent so far. I big home win would be hard to ignore.

I hope to see...
Denis have a big second half. I feel for his targeting penalty/suspension. The season has probably not gone as he expected and sitting out half a game is a weird way to prepare. I hope he comes out in the second half and gives everyone a lift. [CORRECTION: I guess I have the timing wrong on this and Denis won't be suspended for the first half, since he was called for it in the first half of the Temple game.]

BC is in trouble if...
Finley has time in the pocket. He will find the open man or at least attack the guy they view as the weakest.

Bottom Line
Because I almost always do, I am going to predict a BC victory, but I don't feel great about it. If we can avoid turnovers and force a few of our own, I think BC can win a close, physical battle.
Final Score: BC 28, NC State 24

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Temple

After the game, Addazio kept mentioning that this was a very physical game. Aside from the targeting issues and some unlucky injuries, I didn't see it. It looked just like the other games. We are almost at the midpoint of the season and watching Watching the game back shows clear patterns developing. I hope that the coaches start fixing the troublesome patterns because once again, the game was much closer than it should have been.

Offense: B+

Brown was very inconsistent in this game. He made a few nice throws and then some terrible ones. He also threw into double coverage multiple times (he was lucky one INT was bobbled). While he didn't get any balls batted this week, there were some weird arm angles. He did show some toughness in the pocket and improved speed.

Dillon was more disciplined this week with his reads and hitting the holes. Glines looked very good just executing the basic offense. Levy got a few touches.

Smith had some drops. Sweeney's TD was great. White also did well in running after the catch. Lewis' one drop was almost a highlight catch. He has great potential. Walker did well getting right where he needed to be for first downs.

The Oline's job was simplified and they played better. I think the jumbo and bunch formations are what we should stick with. Just wear everyone down. It actually pairs well with tempo. As you saw with Glines, we were set and ready to run and Temple was worn out. Baker struggled a bit with penalties. Lindstrom was good. Petrula played well.

Aside from the heavy usage for bunch, BC didn't add many new wrinkles this week. They did have Dillon on some quasi-zone reads but until Brown is a threat to run, those won't be game breakers. I also want to see us use even more play action. It worked against Wake and teams are still crowding the box. Punish them for doing so.

Defense: C

Allen carried the D and we are lucky he did since the rest of the DLine was not as good. Ray was quiet. Smith had plenty of tackles but they were coming right at him for much of the game. Karafa was fine. I don't know why they didn't rotate the other young guys in, but they should have. We need to see if any of them can step up.

Richardson did not have a great game. He's is not shedding blockers well. Strachan missed some tackles. Lamont had a few tackles.

Sebastian struggled again. It almost seemed like Temple was throwing at him. Torres had some better moments but still had a few issues. Harris was pretty good. Denis didn't get to do much before he was tossed.

BC is 72nd in total D and we haven't played great Offenses. Addazio is mentioning the inability to get off the field. I think it is more about lack of adjustments. Temple kept running inside zones on us and we couldn't stop it or any other designed run up the middle. It was the same against Wake and Purdue. This needs to be fixed. I also am frustrated that the corner play is not getting better. Where are the adjustments there?

Special Teams: C

I think they made a necessary change on the PAT. The kick and punt coverage was better. I don't know what happened on the fumbled punt attempt. The snap was fine, so it was just a straight untouched drop.

Walker and Glines were fine on returns. I know Walker fumbled again, but in my opinion that was more on Daz. He elected to receive a kick again instead of just tacking the yards onto the previous return. Naturally the return team would be tired and more likely to make mistakes.

Overall: B-

This was supposed to be a bounce back game. Yes, BC got the win. But the mistakes of the prior games remained and that's on Addazio. Beyond the frustration, the other questionable ingame decision was how he still had the team running tempo with the lead in the 4th quarter. I know it is hard to slow down after practicing tempo for so long, but eating up more clock was the better idea when trying to close out an opponent. Imagine if failure to kill clock costs us a game in the near future. Good teams are able to switch when the situation calls for it.

He should take solace in his recruiting, because talent remains the reason we keep winning these sloppy games.

BC guy brings Baldwin to 'This is SportsCenter'

Baldwin makes an appearance in the latest "This is Sports Center" commercial. They could have picked numerous bird mascots, but grabbed Baldwin in part because of Mike Giblin. The BC and ESPN guy wrote the Miller commercial and was sure to get his favorite Eagle in there. Great job.

Louisville gametime, Addazio says nothing, and Hoops hype

BC is playing another early game. The ACC announced the kickoff for the matchup with Louisville will be 12:30. The game will be on your regional sports network and NESN in the Boston area.

Addazio said nothing Sunday or Monday about the various injuries of BC's star players.

I know we are in football season, but here is a basketball highlight tweet that BC put out. I'm a sucker for this stuff and it makes our very good players look great.

A look inside Power Gym for practice #5 #WeAreBC 🦅 pic.twitter.com/dzsscsrPPT

— Boston College Men's Basketball (@BCMBB) October 1, 2018

No word on Dillon and Addazio talks

There is still no word on Dillon's injury, nor White's or Smith. Addazio didn't provide any information in his postgame and BC's released nothing Sunday. For what it is worth, Dillon is posting highlights on Social Media, so he seems to be in good spirits. We will see how news of his health impacts the line on the game.

I haven't watched the game back yet, but Addazio doesn't seem as frustrated or concerned as most fans. I agree with him on the team's perseverance...I would just prefer that the games don't get to a point where you need to persevere. 

Another sloppy win for BC

Fumbles, Special Teams miscues and questionable pass D. Does that sound familiar? Fortunately BC's Offense remains prolific and the D made some stops late to beat Temple.

It should not be this hard. Daz took the blame last week. Will he this week? There is a lot to clean up if this team is going to reach its potential.

I will have grades and second viewing thoughts up this week.

In-game comments post: Temple

It is only one loss, but it still feels like this is time to turn things around. Let's fix mistakes and issues and beat Temple.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Money is a sign of momentum in BC Athletics

BC officially announced its long-discussed strategic plan and capital campaign for Athletics. The details of the strategic plan are not that important. And as we know from numerous BC projects, this will get altered. To me, the most encouraging aspect of the announcement is the $150 million capital campaign. This campaign will be the largest in ACC history and the first sports-specific campaign in BC history.

While we wait and hope for excitement on the field and court, the most palpable part of BC sports of the last decade was a loss of passion and engagement. Blame Gene, Bates, Spaz, Jags, Addazio, Donahue, Christian, the change in college sports, the changing demographics of BC, the changing nature of fandom, whatever. People don't feel as engaged. The two areas where it is most obvious was in attendance and fundraising. If Jarmond and BC think there is now enough interest and support for a huge campaign, then that is a sign people are feeling better about BC. Just think of how long Bates was trying to raise money for the practice facility. Now less than two years later BC is being aggressive, public and specific in its goals. That is a great sign. It means they expect the teams to win and they are going to try everything to get this community to buy in.

The money and proposed renovations to Conte should help basketball recruiting and solidify hockey as we near the end of the York years. It is also another selling point for the football program.

I applaud Jarmond for taking on this task. He was hired for many reason, but fundraising was a big one. Now he is proving that he is willing to get out there, talk to donors and sell them on BC.

Friday picks

I went heavy on the road teams again. We will see if it makes a difference.


Picks in bold

West Virginia-3.5 at Texas Tech

Virginia+6 at NC State

Florida State-6.5 at Louisville

Purdue-3 at Nebraska

Nevada+4 at Air Force

Northern Illinois+3.5 at Eastern Michigan

Utah-1.5 at Washington State

Florida Atlantic-3.5 at Middle Tennessee

Virginia Tech+4.5 at Duke

Ohio State-3.5 at Penn State

Last week I was 5-5. I am 16-25-1 on the season.

BC-Temple preview

The right things have been said all week about the loss to Purdue. The team is mad, refocused, determined, etc. Everything you would want after a disappointing performance. But that is all talk. BC is a heavy favorite and shouldn't even be worried about this game. Now they just have to prove they are as talented as we think they are.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC-Temple was indirectly critical to the creation of this blog. Paul Peterson broke his hand against Temple in 2004. In the next game, BC got blown out by Syracuse with a BCS game on the line (still my toughest loss as a fan). When the media reaction and the coverage at Eagle Action took TOB's partyline of excuses without challenging any of it, I felt the need to write. If Paul Peterson plays against Syracuse, I think BC wins and I happily go to the Fiesta Bowl.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get big plays out of play action. There were big plays on the table in the Purdue game. BC needs to hit those this week. If they do, the game won't even be close.
2. Firm up the middle of the Dline. If our DTs get pushed around again, it could be a long day.
3. Clean Special Teams. All aspects. Extra points. Returns. Coverage. Let's not give Temple any hope.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 18-2-1 against Temple at Alumni
-- Addazio is 18-16 at Alumni
-- Addazio is 14-15 coming off a loss
The current line is BC-12.5

Factoid
BC has won seven in a row in the series and leads the series 28-7-2.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Clemson is going to be huge. I doubted Syracuse, but they've looked good in what I've seen. If they beat Clemson on the road, then they will probably be favored against us and have an outside chance of winning the division.

I hope to see...
Fewer missed tackles. Last week was bad. This hasn't been real issue on other Addazio teams. I hope last week was an anomaly and not the start of something ominous.

BC is in trouble if...
Brown starts turning the ball over again. It would be a test to the team's mental toughness.

Overall
If BC can't regroup and beat Temple, then Addazio is wasting everyone's time. I think they fix the little things, Dillon has a big day and the D does enough for BC to win with some breathing room.
Final Score: BC 28, Temple 17

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Purdue

Addazio didn't think effort or overconfidence was an issue. I can't speak to the team mood, but I don't feel like the effort was great. Plenty of missed tackles. Plenty of drops. Some Oline breakdowns and even a potential TD where the announcers called out Sweeney for lack of effort. It was a frustrating game to watch back because I think BC should have dominated that game. We have more talent. We just didn't show it on Saturday.

Offense: D

I don't think Loefler did Brown any favors, but AB was not great Saturyday. Not adjusting on the batted ball. Missing some open men. A few bad throws. He also has running lanes that he is not taking. Perry was fine but what can you make of garbage time?

While those around him did not have their best game, neither did Dillon. Purdue often had nine guys in the box, so Dillon would approach the hole only to see three guys waiting a few yards back. Instead of running into them, he would try to bust it outside. That didn't work. He does have the speed or change of direction to make something of those broken plays. He needs to hit those holes hard, get his three yards and wear the defense down. Eventually one or more of those first reads will become something more. Levy was fine. Glines was fine.

The WRs and TEs didn't help Brown much. Smith had a drop. Sweeney did. White did. In a game when nothing can get going one or two drops is a huge momentum killer. Lewis had some nice moments. None of them blocked all that well, especially the Tight Ends.

The OLine still struggled when trying to pull off the stretches. Purdue shot right through. They were much better with the simple power stuff. The counters weren't as effective as they had been against Wake. They also all need to work on getting the DLine's arms down.

I don't feel like Loeffler called a very good game. Why not stick with what was working early in the year? There is too much variety in the run game without enough consistency or quality. Give Brown easier decisions and get him out of the pocket.

Defense: C-

We have two great DEs, but are really hurting inside. Once again there is no pressure up the middle and teams are running right at them. I don't know why Smith is not playing at his previous decent level. They are rotating guys in but no one is really stepping up. Karafa is ok, but he is not collapsing the pocket or disrupting the running game.

The LBs got killed in the passing game. They were confused on crossing routes and often looked a step slow. I don't know if Strachan has the speed needed to cover slot guys. When nothing was happening, they decided to give McDuffie more snaps and he looked good.

The DBs missed a lot of tackles. Neither Harris nor Denis had their best games. I feel for Sebastian. Purdue clearly targeted him and avoided Cheevers. Sebastian needs help or maybe some of the younger guys need more snaps.

The D had some nice moments but couldn't get off the field or adjust. When a player is getting burned over and over like Sebastian, where is Reid and staff making an adjustment?

Special Teams: B

It was a shame to waste Walker's big day. He did his part to set up the offense and was aggressive and sure handed.

BC's punting was good, with good placement on most occasions.

BC's punt and kick coverage was fine.

The missed PAT was not a factor in the final score, but that needs to be cleaned up as soon as possible.

Overall: C-

The play was lackluster, the adjustments questionable and the schemes were problematic. But do you want to know two signs that show Purdue is well coached and BC might not be? Not only did they plan and prepare their DLine to bat down Brown's balls, but they also got our guys to jump offsides repeatedly. Clearly Purdue saw something in scouting BC. Clearly they added a wrinkle to take advantage. And clearly their guys executed those game- and opponent-specific assignments.

Talent is always going to be primary. Addazio has more talent than Purdue and might be a better recruiter and developer than Brohm. But those little things. The little details. Those are the things that always make a difference in one or two games a year.

I think all of BC's offensive problems are fixable. I am hoping some areas of the D can mature quickly. But I also hope that Addazio figures out the right combination of coaching and managing so that he can avoid these sorts of games in the future.

Explaining BC's start times

We know the Temple game kicks off at noon and the NC State game will be 12:30. That shouldn't be a surprise. As Joe Giglio from the News & Observer pointed out, since the most recent ACC expansion, BC has played the most early games in the conference.

Start time for home games for current ACC teams, since the beginning of the 2013 season pic.twitter.com/knDR5dODbn

— Joe Giglio (@jwgiglio) September 25, 2018

I would say our fanbase has varied opinions on the ideal start time, but it is easy to understand why BC plays so many early games.

-- The 3:30 and night games are primarily the best games in the ACC on any given weekend. Those are the ones that ESPN and ABC fight for. Since 2013, we've been middle of the pack (at best). Our games have rarely had any impact on the overall conference picture.
-- All of our cupcake games start at 1 pm. Some schools might put their non-televised gimme games at night or later in the day. BC put ours at 1 pm. They must see this as the ideal given the challenges with parking, tailgating and noise.
--BC rarely falls into the secondary 3:30 game. Depending on how crowded the ACC schedule is on a given weekend, there can be a regional sports network game at 3:30 pm. BC has played in this game on occasion, but not often. This is actually because we have more value to our TV partners in the earlier noon slot.

Unless we get back in the rankings soon, I think we will continue to play in early games the rest of the season.

What do the computers and experts think of BC now?

We were all focused on BC's AP ranking last week, but what i found more significant is what the computer polls thought of BC. At one point we were considered a favorite or slight favorite in all our future games with the exception of Clemson. That is changed now. In ESPN's FPI, BC is once again considered the underdog against NC State, Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech. The FSU and Syracuse games still see BC as a favorite but not as significant as prior weeks. I know none of this really makes a difference on the field, but it is interesting what a poor performance will do.

ESPN's Bowl team still has BC headed to respectable bowls (Music City and Camping World). Others sports sites are not as optimistic about BC's bowl prospects:
-- Sports Illustrated: Independence
-- The Sporting News: Military
-- CBS: Military

When it goes bad it goes really bad for BC

Beyond the winstreak snap or losing to a winless team, there was also frustration in getting blown out. BC wasn't even in position to win once Purdue scored in the second half. It speaks to lack of adjustments and game management issues. But it is also a pattern for Addazio and even for BC. In Addazio's 34 losses at BC, 16 have been by 14 or more points. Equally frustrating was that this was Addazio's 11th loss at BC when scoring less than 14 points.

Why does losing by one point vs 20 matter? When you play close games, more of them are going to go your way. When you are not in it, the whole stadium might as well go home...especially given Addazio's comeback record.

Unfortunately for BC fans, this isn't all that new. TOB -- the last BC coach to make it to six seasons -- also had a bad blowout record. Through his first six seasons at BC, he had 17 blow out losses. (As a glimmer of hope, he only had four more blowout losses in his final four seasons at BC.) Maybe it will get better for Addazio. Or maybe we will just start winning again and blowouts won't be on my mind.


Here is Addazio after the game.

Boilermakers burst BC's bubble

Exposed is a strong word, but that is sort of how it feels. Purdue made BC one dimensional on offense or one dimensional on D. At least the Special Teams played better.

It will take a lot for BC to get ranked again. Addazio will have to spend a lot of time regrouping.

Second viewing thoughts and grades as soon as I can get to them.

In-game comments post: Purdue

Another road test. Can BC keep its strong start going? We will find out.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Friday picks

Last week was my first winning weekend of the season. I will keep it moving in the right direction this week.

Picks in bold

Navy-6.5 at SMU

Minnesota+2.5 at Maryland

Notre Dame-7 at Wake Forest

Pitt-3.5 at UNC

South Carolina-2.5 at Vanderbilt

TCU-3 at Texas

Florida-4 at Tennessee

NC State-5 at Marshall

Michigan State-5.5 at Indiana

Stanford-2.5 at Oregon

I went 5-4-1 last week. I am 11-20-1 on the season.

BC-Purdue preview

Can you call a Big Ten road game, a trap game? That's what this feels like. I know Purdue is 0-3, but they lost their first game by four, their second by one and their last by three. That's bad luck. They could just as easily be 3-0. I hope BC is ready and not taking this for granted.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
This might have been more important in the BC blogging and message board world, than the fanbase at large, but earlier this week The Heights published an article that said Addazio was calling the plays in the beginning of last year before handing it over to Loeffler. Then the O took off. BC -- via Sports Information -- said the article wasn't true and The Heights took it down. I don't know if the contents of the article are true. I can't even link to it now since the Heights pulled it. My bigger concern and complaint is that the Athletic Department even has to fight these sorts of battles with the student newspaper. I am all for accuracy, but too often BC coaches (past and present) are worried about perception and credit. My suggestion to them is to stop paying attention to what is being said and written about them and focus on the players and the game. You work in one of the true objective professions where your success is measured in a public way. Don't get caught up in what the crowd thinks. It is not productive. Just win and watch how little the message boards, blogs and twitter even matter. Don't worry about credit. If you truly want to recognize the difference makers between winning and losing, shine more light on the players. They never get enough credit. I know Sports Information is just doing their job, but come on, let one Heights article fade away and worry about promoting the Purdue game.

Three Simple Keys
1. Be stubborn with the run. I imagine, like everyone else, Purdue is going to sell out to stop the run. BC needs to keep pounding it anyway. Good things will happen and we will break some big plays. I also want to see BC run so they can control the tempo and clock. Last week our D was worn out and tired. Purdue will try the same thing if we don't control the clock.
2. No Special Teams mistakes. This is obvious but still important.
3. The DLine needs to win upfront. I don't care if Purdue runs one play or 100. Our DTs need to step up and keep them from running wild.

Gambling Notes
-- Brohm is 4-5 at home while at Purdue
-- BC is 1-7 on the road against Big Ten schools
-- Addazio is 19-6 in non-conference games at BC
The current line is BC-6.5

Scoreboard Watching
Notre Dame-Wake Forest. I know Addazio praised Wake, but I don't think they are that good. How they play against the Irish will tell us if we beat a good team or got fortunate that mistakes didn't hurt us because Wake was so weak.

Factoid
With the game, BC will have now played 10 of the 14 Big Ten schools. We have yet to play Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota.

I hope to see... 
Dillon used in the passing game. People will be expecting the play action. Now on his release get him the ball as a pass catcher. It will lead to big plays.

BC is in trouble if...
Zach Allen doesn't have a big game. I know he is the focus of protection, but we still need him to make plays and get them off schedule.

Overall
I think this will be another shootout. I think like last week, BC gets a lead and then it goes back and forth for much of the game. There will be a late turnover that helps BC close it out in the 4th quarter.
Final Score: BC 38, Purdue 30

BC adds another basketball recruit

Maryland wing Kamari Williams verballed to BC Wednesday. He's 6'8 and the son of NBA veteran Walt Williams. He seems like a bit of a project but there is a lot to like about his future.

Currently the recruiting services do not list any other major offers for Williams. Supposedly he was considered a strong possibility for UMass and had interest from Power 5s. The BC commitment will likely catch someone's attention and bring in another P5 suitor.

I have no problem with another under the radar recruit who has a famous father. Williams' frame is promising and we will need a player with some positional flexibility. What I also like is that he is from one of Scott Spinelli's primary recruiting areas (DC/Maryland). Spinelli knows the area well and probably has a good understanding of how a player from there will fit in under Christian and where he can take his game.

Welcome to BC Kamari. I hope you have a bright future on the Heights.

Brown hype building

Praise for AJ Dillon is not new. We heard it all summer. Seeing BC in the Top 25 is not unexpected. A good start and the sleeper talk from voters allowed BC to move into the rankings quickly. What is surprising is this early speculation about Anthony Brown. The AP's own hype machine is touting Brown's start in relation to its All-America team! This is a guy who wouldn't have been included in a discussion of the ACC's best preseason QBs. Now he is getting featured by the organization that produces the most prominent All America team in College Football.

Obviously this is very early in the process and probably premature. Even if Brown remains the FBS passing leader, an older or more high profile QB will probably get the call. But for Brown to get this sort of praise this early in the season is a nice surprise. As long as he keeps putting up big numbers and BC keeps winning, the praise will grow. So let's keep it going. 

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Wake Forest

[First a little bit of an explanation. Through the entire history of the blog, watching BC Football live and then rewatching it was not an issue or a challenge. Even as I had children, their activities tended to be more morning-based. Now increasingly my Saturday afternoons are spent watching (and coaching) their games and following BC on my phone or in the car. My Sundays in the fall are very busy too with volunteer work, leaving even less time to rewatch. I think rewatching is very valuable as a fan and blogger, so I plan to keep it up. However, I don't know if I can plan to regularly pump it out by Sunday night. Thanks for your continued support.]

For as dominant as an offensive performance as that was, the game was far, far from clean and did leave me with concerns. Beyond the Special Teams miscues, the OLine and DLine were not as consistent as they will need to be against elite competition. The conditioning issue -- which was mentioned on the broadcast multiple times -- also should have us and Addazio worried. Given the talent advantage and explosive plays, it never should have been that close. Watching it a second time only confirmed that belief.

Offense: A-

Brown looked even better than he did against UMass and Holy Cross. His deep throws weren't perfect but they were still pretty close. He didn't force things. He also was a little more accurate on his short passes. I would still like to see him running more but depends on his knee.

Dillon ran well. He didn't do anything to top some of his previous highlights, but his runs were solid and explosive. I would like to see him more in the passing game. Levy only got a few snaps.

I know a lot of guys are winning awards this week, but Jeff Smith might be most deserving. His hands have gotten so much better. He runs really well and his speed is impressive. If he stays healthy and teams keep leaving him open, he will have a huge season. White had a nice TD, as did Glines. Sweeney made a great adjustment on his TD. We didn't get the TEs more involved, but probably should have. There were lots of plays available.

The OLine was the most troubling spot. I know it is tough when the opponent sells out to stop the run, but that wasn't the main problem. In straight up powers, the oline looked good. When they had to move -- stretches, traps, counters, -- things broke down a bit. The counter seems to be the best play. The power sweep would seem to be a good idea but it was never very clean during the game. Monteiro seemed to struggle the most when moving or pulling. Schmaal was good. Petrula did a good job with the edge. If teams are going to keep challenging the OLine, they need to be ready for speedy penetration.

My only critique of the Offensive gameplan was too much variety in the run game. We tried a bit of everything and it was hit or miss. I think keeping things simple, especially when you have someone like Dillon, is the best plan. All he needs is one missed tackle and he can score. Loefler needs to focus on what BC does best in the running game and stop messing around with stuff the Oline can't pull off yet.

Defense: B-

Ray had a great game. He still was aggressive late in the game. Allen wasn't as dominant. He was fine. The DTs really struggled. I am not sure how much they were told to hold position against Wake's run game, but they were getting pushed back over and over. Smith got pushed back. Karafa was a step slow. Valdez and Rayam got playing time but didn't disrupt much.

Strachan was pretty active, but also had a few misses. Richardson also got lots of playing time and was ok.

The DBs were the best part of the D. Cheevers took some gambles, but also made plenty of plays. Harris played well. Denis was fine. Sebastian got beat a few times. Torres was good.

I am surprised we still haven't figured Wake out on D. Their approach under Clawson hasn't really changed. But they got lots of push and lots of plays off. We couldn't get them off the field. That's a bad sign. Why not bring more pressure? Or do something to help out the DTs.

Special Teams: B-

Even without the fumble or blocked punt there were still some other Special Teams issues. We missed an extra point. We got lucky on a penalty on one of Wake's long returns.

Overall: B

As Addazio pointed out in the post-game press conference, this team did persevere for the win. Overcoming mistakes and the shifting game times could easily have been a distraction. He deserves credit for that and for building such a talent advantage. But I think having two easy games to start the season was somewhat unnecessary and may have led to the tiredness and sloppy play.

In a way, it was ideal for Addazio in that he got the win, the team showed flashes of greatness, yet he can still keep them humble.

The whole game in 20 minutes

This is pretty cool and worth it if you want to see all the highlights.

Addazio's post game thoughts

This is BC's best start since 2007 and Addazio seems pretty happy with his team. He like the chemistry and liked how they responded to some adversity. If you read into Addazio's reactions, he thinks this team is very good.

Friday picks

Last week I went heavy on the road teams. This week is more about the home teams. Let's hope I am trending in the right way.



Rutgers+2.5 at Kansas

Hawaii+7 at Army

Florida State-3.5 at Syracuse

Tulane-4 at UAB

Duke+5 at Baylor

Boise State+2 at Oklahoma State

Ohio+5 at Virginia

Oregon State+4 at Nevada

Mizzou-6 at Purdue

UMass+4 at FIU

I am 6-14 on the season.

BC survives uneven performance for win at Wake

This was a very prescient tweet during the game.

This team has the talent to win the ACC and the coaching to finish last.

— Chris (@cschroeck) September 13, 2018

This game never should have been as close as it was. But special teams mistakes and predictable play calling negated the huge talent advantage. Fortunately talent won out. Lots to like about the game. I just hope Addazio is able to clean up the stuff that hurt BC before we play teams who are our equal.

The good news is that there were enough highlight and Dillon moments that BC will probably be ranked soon.

I will try to have the grades up Saturday (and I will also try to get to the Holy Cross thoughts).

In-game comments post: Wake Forest

And now the season truly begins. This is a critical game under unique circumstances. Let's hope it is memorable for the right reasons.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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BC-Wake Forest preview

This is only the third game and yet this season already feels weird. We are 2-0 without really being tested. There is a bandwagon forming and yet no one truly knows what we have. How could they after playing two really bad teams? Now we have our first real test, our ACC opener, it's a short week, we're on the road and we have a weird start time due to an oncoming hurricane. If you made this up it wouldn't be believable. I am excited to see how BC does and think this game will determine a lot about the season.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Did you notice the online excitement when BC released some new merchandise with the old logo? Or the 40,000 people at Alumni for a Holy Cross game? I think it is fair to say there are plenty of people who love BC's past and history. I don't want to live in the past, but I also think when it comes to schedules, marketing, and building excitement for BC Sports, we need to push our history and identity as much as possible. We are not just some football factory. We are unique in the landscape and should embrace that uniqueness. Our long-time fans clearly have.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stay poised on D. Wake plays up tempo and will use multiple QBs. BC needs to keep it simple and not take too many risks. Given the circumstances, it is almost like playing an option team.
2. Pass as long as possible. My biggest fear with the potential weather issue is BC not airing it out. There have been huge openings in the passing game so far and more are sure to come against Wake. BC needs to hit those opportunities.
3. Second level blocking. One of the things that I don't think we did well in the first two games was dominating on the second level. If teams crowd the box, we need to get push back and release to the next guy. That will create huge runs for any of our RBs.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 1-4 in ACC openers
-- Addazio is 2-2 against Clawson
-- BC leads the series 7-4
The current line is BC-4.5

Factoid
Addazio is undefeated at BB&T Field

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State and Syracuse is the most relevant game to BC this weekend. Are the 'Noles really as bad as they look? Is Syracuse decent? We will find out soon.

What I hope to see...
Win or lose, I don't want to see or hear any excuses about the change in schedule. Is it inconvenient? Sure. But over the years any time BC has a travel issue and loses (NIT years ago, Syracuse years ago with TOB), we never hear the end of it. I don't want to hear excuses this time. Wake has to adjust their schedule too.

BC is in trouble if...
We get in a big hole early. I don't know if we have the offense or a QB who is ready to pull off a double-digit comeback.

Overall
I think despite all the distractions and uncertainty, this is still BC's game. I think it will take BC a while to adjust to playing a real team, but after a sluggish first half, I think BC pounds away and pulls away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 31, Wake Forest 17

BC-Wake game time moved up

After a few days of speculation, BC, Wake Forest and the ACC announced that kickoff has been moved up to 5:30 pm ET on Thursday. Aside from outright cancelling, this makes the most sense. It will likely still be wet, but less likely to have harsh winds and the heavy rain that a true night game would have had. I think the earlier time favors BC. The stands will likely be empty. The conditions not great, but shouldn't make us one dimensional. The only problem I see is if BC can't get out of North Carolina Thursday night.

Thanks to @DemonDeacons , the @theACC and @espn for working with us to help move this game up and get it played. We look forward to opening ACC play Thursday! #WeAreBC https://t.co/UZW4EGStkm

— Martin Jarmond (@MartinJarmond) September 11, 2018

It is going to be wet against Wake

Despite the Hurricane scares, I don't foresee ESPN or the ACC rescheduling the BC-Wake game. I think we can play in bad weather, but given our talent advantage, a slick sloppy night helps them more than it helps us.

Post game video roundup

I didn't have time to watch the game back yet, so enjoy these videos for now.

Holy Cross game goes as expected

It turned into a glorified scrimmage. But I will hold my point that if we are going to do that, it might as well be against Holy Cross. No major problems. No major injuries and lots of experience for the backups.

I will have grades up late Sunday.

In-game comments post: Holy Cross

Rivalry renewed or glorified scrimmage? We will find out shortly.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

My picks were horrible last week. I guess I need a preseason to get warmed up. Things turn around this week. I'm going heavy on the road teams. Here you go:

Friday picks

Georgia Tech-3 at South Florida

Arizona+3.5 at Houston

Duke+2.5 at Northwestern

Kansas+3.5 at Central Michigan

Colorado+3 at Nebraska

Iowa State+3.5 at Iowa

UMass+1 at Georgia Southern

Virginia+5 at Indiana

USC+5 at Stanford

Cal+3 at BYU

I am 2-8 on the season.

BC-Holy Cross preview

Last week was exciting -- the start of a new season. This is more subdued. The tradition with Holy Cross is nice and the excitement about this BC team is palpable, but I don't think we will know anything more about BC after playing a bad FCS team.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
I think Holy Cross' Head Coach Bob Chesney will be a FBS head coach real soon. His track record of success building terrible, low resource programs will be enticing to many schools. If he has even the littlest bit of success in Worcester, it looks like he will leverage that for another job. After Holy Cross, the next step would seem to be either FCS power or FBS bottom dweller. Either way, the guy looks like he is going places.

Three Simple Keys
1. Add some more deep passing for Brown. I don't suspect he will be under much pressure. I would like to see BC attempt more deep passes to build his confidence and put pressure on future opponents to not load the box.
2. Get reps for the young guys. The new redshirt rules are a gift. Use it this game to develop young guys and second teamers.
3. Clean up Special Teams. It should be better than last week.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio has not lost to an FCS school
-- BC leads the all time series 48-31-3
-- BC has won their last three home games against Holy Cross
Because this is a FCS-FBS game, there are no lines on the major sites

Factoid
While Fenway hosted the series for many years, BC also played Holy Cross in Foxboro twice.

Scoreboard watching
Most of the ACC is taking on FCS teams this weekend, so there is not much at stake with regards to the division race. The big game is Clemson-Texas A&M. It would be nice for the Tigers to win in convincing fashion, so that the national perception of the ACC remains strong.

I hope to see...
A viral highlight from Dillon. There was talk after last week about whether Dillon's Heisman hopes were ruined by not padding his stats against UMass. I don't think they were and feel like the middle of the season will determine his chances. However, it wouldn't hurt to get on people's radars now. A nice viral moment would lay the groundwork for a Dillon trophy run.

BC is in trouble if...
As always with these lopsided games, the only real trouble for BC is injury. We will survive this game, but a significant injury could ruin the season.

Overall
This won't be close. As much as I long for a spirited rivalry, this is not the year. BC will crush them and we may even have to speed the clock in the second half.
Final Score: BC 52, Holy Cross 10

How did Addazio approach new redshirt rule in Week 1

One of the biggest rule changes this offseason was the new redshirt policy. Players can now play in four games and still use a redshirt. Addazio mentioned in the preseason there were a few ways to test the system based on team needs and expectations for the players. Based on Week 1 it looks like he will play a lot of kids and see who is ready for full time action and who might sit later in the year. Nine true freshmen played against UMass. As a reference point -- last year Addazio only played five true freshmen. (And one of those was using Perry earlier than he wanted.)

Being aggressive with the roster early makes sense to me. If all nine look great and are needed, there is no reason to redshirt them. Ride it out and put the best team you can on the field. If only one or two are exceeding expectations, then you keep playing them and redshirt the others.

The only challenge I can foresee is if one of the players sits and then is needed late in the season (sort of like Perry last year). Then you burn the redshirt and didn't get a full season for the player. That will probably happen eventually, but for now, I think Addazio should keep using young players and see who is ready to help the team. 

Which FCS teams should BC play?

One of the common complaints about our schedule is the annual FCS game. Because we are facing a smaller school from a lower division, there is rarely excitement. It is nearly a no win for BC, since the payday is minimal, ticket sales are usually low and there is no respect for the opponent. But these games are not going away. Every college program plays them. Until either TV or the playoff system demands that teams stop playing FCS, these games will continue. While I am all for BC being a leader in college sports, I don't want them to take a stand on this issue. The games might be boring, but they do help us prepare for the season. Even prior to playing FCS schools, BC would schedule a winnable game like this.

If these games aren't going away, then what should the philosophy be in scheduling them? In the past I've been very clear that the games should be either against Catholic schools or New England schools. (Note that BC can't schedule non-scholarship teams like the Ivy League.) Here is that list:

-- Central Connecticut State
-- Bryant
-- Sacred Heart
-- Holy Cross
-- New Hampshire
-- Maine
-- University of San Diego
-- Georgetown (once they add scholarships)
-- Dayton
-- Duquesne
-- Saint Francis
-- Villanova
-- Rhode Island
-- Fordham
-- Bryant
-- Incarnate Word

Now we've played plenty of FCS schools that don't fall into this geographic or cultural territory (like Wagner just a few years ago). And while I understand that schedule is sometimes a game of musical chairs, there is no reason BC should need to schedule beyond this list. Maybe I could see regularly including New York and New Jersey teams, but those become a little harder to justify. I don't want to reach and schedule FCS powers. There is no upside in doing that.

An AD and Football coach shouldn't get in the habit of having to rationalize their schedules, but the Catholic/New England focus is a good talking point. Unless someone has a better philosophy, I suggest we keep the FCS scheduling to those teams.

Why Holy Cross matters

I don't read or hear the conversation as much these days, but BC doesn't really have a rival. The ACC-Notre Dame deal meant we actually play the Irish less. As much as I love some of our ACC matchups, none really earn the rivalry status. We have a nice history and rivalry with BU for hockey and Providence for basketball, but that's not the same. A true college rivalry is formed in football but lives through all sports, and if it is a true rivalry, it bleeds into all aspects of your life with friends and relatives on the other side. BC had something like that for a long time. It was with Holy Cross.

Even explaining this rivalry is a challenge. Half my readers remember it, lived it and know more about it than I do. The other half are still scratching their head at the thought of a heated relationship with Holy Cross. But once upon a time, this was the college football game in New England. Both programs had periods of success. For years games were played at Fenway. Both schools were filled with Catholics from the Boston area. There was a feeling that you knew everyone sitting in the stands, regardless of what team they were rooting for. 

The connection was more than just sports and proximity. Both schools are Jesuit and priests often moved back and forth between the institutions. For a long time both schools also prized athletics. But Holy Cross' size and constantly shifting position on sports changed the rivalry and the school.

Being smaller than BC was always a bit limiting, yet Holy Cross had (and still has a large athletic department). But when the first DIA and DIAA split came, Holy Cross went small and BC stayed large. The additional scholarships and larger stage only made the rivalry more lopsided. As Holy Cross moved to no scholarships, it wasn't even a rivalry anymore. The series ended as it was no longer competitive or fair (with HC having no scholarships). And as the sports connection faded, so did the tightness of the other connections. As both schools became more national and had student bodies from beyond Massachusetts, the familiarity and overlap dwindled too. 

While I know some individual Holy Cross fans who rehash the "would've, should've, could've" aspects of their sports decisions, I don't know how all their alumni feel. It is clear that their leadership values a future in sports and hence the return to scholarships and the return to playing BC. They are a long way away from being competitive, but I do wish them success. I would love for them to become a FCS power and an semi-regular part of our schedule. The nostalgia and association would help both schools and perhaps grow to something new and exciting. Holy Cross was a critical part of BC history. It would be nice to have it as part of our future.

Second viewing thoughts and grades: UMass

I was in my car and following the game on my phone, so by the time I watched the game Saturday night, I was calm and knew BC crushed UMass. Had I watched live, the first quarter might have been a little more tense and upsetting. Watching with the outcome known was very calming and reassuring for the season. Brown had been the big question mark (and he looked pretty good). There were a few spotty areas, but this was the start to the season BC needed.

Offense: A-

Statistically Brown was great. Considering his limited preseason, Brown was great. When you factor in the injury, Brown was great. But his passes were a bit off target. I know his completion percentage was good, but he still threw behind some guys or not exactly where the ball should be. Against a better team he will get burned with that stuff. I thought his decisions were good in the passing game. I think he will need to present himself as a running threat in our more challenging games. With the way UMass was biting on the end arounds/sweeps, there could be huge plays for AB if he fakes the handoff.

I know a lot of people wanted Dillon to pad his stats, but I was fine with his game. He didn't get his usual viral highlight, but the pass catching alone showed major improvement. Levy and Bailey were fine. Jones got the TDs, but we had such a size advantage against UMass, I don't know how much of that was him vs our OLine.

Two of White's catches were beautiful. I felt like Smith could have done more after the catch and handoff -- he had space and just didn't get the right hole. Marten had a career day for him. I was a bit surprised none of the other guys turned their catches into big plays.

The OLine was fine. It is hard to judge this game because of two factors that made the whole area muddled. UMass stiacked the box a lot but also was undersized on the DL. We were winning battles but not exploding because of how their back seven played.

Loeffler called a good game. I think it was good to move Brown around. He needs to get used to rollouts and bootlegs since so many teams are going to focus on our run game. I had no problem with the subs in the second half.

Defense: B+

The only surprising part to me was that our defensive line starters didn't dominate in a more pronounced fashion. Allen was fine, but not speeding by the UMass guys. Smith had a nice INT. Ray was fine.

Strachan is another guy who looked good coming back to action. Jones made some nice plays. DePalma got extended playing time.

Sebastian had the biggest coverage breakdown of the game (the first UMass TD) but was ok after. Denis' INT was nice, as was the runback. Harris was fine. Torres was fine.

This was a very vanilla scheme and that's fine. No need to do anything special unless the opponent and game situation calls for it.

Special Teams: B-

I know you can excuse some of the special team's issues to losing our long snapper (Martin), but there were some other issues too.

We allowed a long kick return. We were not aggressive with our own returns...including punt returns.

Overall: A-

I could get nitpicky about the start or letting UMass get some garbage time points, or hammer Addazio for Special Teams but it was a pretty darn good showing. He had the more talented team and they played that way. It was a relatively vanilla approach, but probably what we needed for the start. And to Addazio's credit, the depth and talent improvement is more obvious in a blowout. The second teamers come on and BC still looks better than their FBS opponent.

Next week should be an even easier game, but I think we can trust Addazio not to screw it up. He certainly didn't screw up this game.

Video roundup

Highlights. 

Addazio's postgame press conference.

BC stomps UMass

It started off a little closer than you like but BC turned it on in the second quarter and never looked back. Great day for AB and everyone else did what they were supposed to do.

More to come tonight and grades up Sunday.

In-game comments post: UMass

It is time. Time for BC Football! Let's have a great year and get off to a great start today.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

Now that sports betting is legal, you can now take my advice and bet away...or at least bet away in the states that created sports books.

I am looking to start strong out of the gate. Good luck to all those with a little extra riding on each game.


Ole Miss+2.5 at Texas Tech

West Virginia-10 at Tennessee

Washington+2.5 at Auburn

North Carolina+7.5 at Cal

Middle Tennessee+3 at Vanderbilt

Washington State-2 at Wyoming

Northern Illinois+10 at Iowa

Michigan+1 at Notre Dame

Miami-3.5 at LSU

Virginia Tech+7.5 at Florida State

BC-UMass preview

I have a weird feeling about this year. As you saw in my predictions, I am skeptical about BC putting it all together. However, when I think about Dillon and the OL, I think we are just going to crush some teams this year. And that is really fun to watch! So let's get this started. BC Football is back and I can't wait.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
Addazio spent a good portion of his radio show this week talking about how tough the opener is regardless of your opponent. He feels the key is to come away with the W. I understand where he is coming from, but also think it is very limiting. Every year there are opportunities to schedule big games on the opening weekend. When he thinks he has a good team (like this year) Addazio should be more aggressive and schedule an opener that gets people excited and makes a statement in Week 1.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pressure on Ford early. UMass is going to try to establish the pass early. BC needs to disrupt that and get Ford out of the pocket.
2. Run, run and then run some more. UMass had one of the worst run defenses in the country last year. BC needs to hammer them there and not look back.
3. Be careful with the ball. I only see this game being interesting if BC turns the ball over a lot.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 4-1 in openers at BC
-- BC is 21-5-1 all time against UMass
-- Addazio is 16-16 at Alumni
The current line is BC-18

Factoid
Sadly this game is not on local TV. It is frustrating that ESPN, the ACC and BC can't fix that.

Scoreboard Watching
Wake Forest plays an improving Tulane team at Tulane Thursday night. The Deacons will be our first critical game. The Tulane matchup is a chance to see the impact of Wake's early suspensions. I am hoping Wake struggles and comes into our game a mess.

I hope to see...
Matt McDonald play for an extended time during mop up duty. The backup QB always gets to be the most popular guy around. I bought into his hype this summer, so now I want to see the kid play in a real game.

BC is in trouble if...
Dillon gets hurt. He is the most important player on the team and the most critical player for the season. He can't get hurt in this game. We could still beat UMass without him, but it would make a winning season less likely.

Overall
There may be some rust early. UMass may make a play or two. But I don't see this as close or interesting. I think we physically overmatch them and win with ease.
Final Score: BC 35, UMass 13

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Addazio has said we have one of the best Olines in the country. He also made similar statements about our RBs and TEs. That alone should mean a Top 25 season. Yet I have my doubts. I don't know if I trust him to navigate and push the right buttons during the season. I know we exploded during the second half of last year and we rallied in 2016. But why does it come to that every year? Can he avoid it this year? This is how I see it playing out.

(This will serve as my actual predictions for the year.)

UMass. Win. Whipple has improved things but they are still terrible. I don't think this will be close.

Holy Cross. Win. Addazio might complain about the schedule, but he was gifted two cupcakes to start the season.

at Wake Forest. Win. I don't think this will be pretty, but I still think BC has enough of a talent advantage to win this game during a short week.

at Purdue. Loss. I see this as a shootout. Even if Dillon goes off -- which I think he will against them -- I still think Purdue will answer. It is a road game against a rising team. I just see something not going our way.

Temple. Win. Another game BC should win without a problem.

at NC State. Win. Another tough road game, but I like how our D matches up against their O. I see this as relatively low scoring and BC running out the clock late.

Louisville. Loss. I think this will feel a lot like the Purdue game, where we lose a game where both teams score in the 30s.

Miami. Loss. As I've mentioned in the best and worst case, this game will be hyped to the heavens. I also see it as another close loss. Dillon can only do so much.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The worst game of the season. The only game where BC is not competitive.

Clemson. Loss. At this point Clemson is playing with a lot of confidence and BC is dinged up.

at Florida State. Win. The late season Addazio "stop the bleeding" game. I don't think FSU will be very good this year and I think we can pound them down.

Syracuse. Win. I expect Syracuse to be bad this year and I think it remains a good matchup for us.

This would leave BC as 7-5 (4-4) in the ACC. No major bowls for us, so we play in the Military Bowl against Navy (an unofficial home game for them). It will be an ugly struggle like our last bowl against the Midshipmen, but BC wins.

Addazio finishes with his first eight win season at BC, but it feels like a letdown.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

This is the most talented BC team in a decade. We have elite players on both sides of the ball. Our bruising running game and enormous OLine provide a matchup problem for every team we face. It should be our year. It could be our year. If everything goes right and Addazio doesn't get in the way, this could be special. If it is special, this is how I see it play out.

(My official predictions are coming Wednesday.)

UMass. Win. Total romp. Not even interesting. The backups play most of the second half.

Holy Cross. Win. The only thing interesting about this game is the renewal of the old rivalry. The game is terrible as BC cruises.

at Wake Forest. Win. Suspensions mean we catch them at the right time. BC starts 3-0 and is finally ranked.

at Purdue. Win. A potential trap avoided. BC grinds it out and Dillon has a big day to spark Heisman talk.

Temple. Win. BC keeps moving up in the polls. The passing game is also clicking and BC is scoring in bunches.

at NC State. Win. The D leads the way with lots of sacks and turnovers. BC starts 6-0 and is now in the Top 10.

Louisville. Win. A close game, but like last year, Dillon breaks a few big ones to get the win.

Miami. Win. Miami comes in ranked too. The game is a huge deal (Friday night, ESPN, Red Bandanna). BC runs over the shellshocked 'Canes. Campus is crazy. Playoff talk starting.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The bubble bursts as it has so many times in Blacksburg. A few mistakes on the road and BC can't recover.

Clemson. Loss. Another wild game at Alumni that ends with a narrow loss. BC is barely in the Top 25.

at Florida State. Win. BC rights the ship and uses the ground game to control and ultimately win.

Syracuse. Win. The Orange are checked out. BC cruises.

BC finished 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC). Not good enough to get into the ACC Championship game and not good enough to get an at-large in the major bowls.

I think BC gets an invite back to Orlando for the Camping World Bowl vs Oklahoma State. I think we win that matchup and finish 11-2 and in the Top 15. Addazio silences all his critics...including this one.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. My little preseason exercise in "what if?" There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this year, but we know things can fall apart quickly. So here is how the season might play out if nothing goes our way. Tuesday will be the what the perfect season would look like and Wednesday will be my actual predictions for the year.

UMass. Win. Brown looks rusty, but BC still runs all day on UMass.

Holy Cross. Win. Another sloppy game, but BC has enough talent to cruise.

at Wake Forest. Loss. A short week leads to major confusion. Brown still struggles and Wake loads up to stop Dillon.

at Purdue. Loss. BC can't keep up in a shootout. Suddenly the preseason hype starts turning to hot seat talk.

Temple. Win. Another game that is much closer than it should be. The Offense continues to look one dimensional, but the BC D carries the team.

at NC State. Loss. BC doesn't give up the big play and hangs for a while, but NCSU chips away on offense, controls the clock and the game.

Louisville. Loss. A game BC should win but doesn't. There are some mistakes and now a winless ACC schedule starts to seem possible.

Miami. Loss. It is a national TV and red bandanna game. BC is hyped and it is close. But mistakes hurt BC again and the passing game remains one of the worst in college football.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Another high scoring offense pulls away from BC.

Clemson. Loss. BC plays well, but can't hold back Clemson.

at Florida State. Loss. Another ugly game. The narrative continues that BC is "playing better" but just unlucky.

Syracuse.  Win. Senior Day and a positive way to end a bad season.

This would leave BC at 4-8 and home for the bowl season. In my opinion it would also be time to make a head coaching change.

Game Week: let's catch up with Dillon

Here is Tom Leyden talking to Dillon about the year, the "H" word and goals for the season.

UMass wins its opener and talk shifts to BC

UMass crushed Duquense in their first game of the season and yet after the game, the first team Mark Whipple really talked about was BC.

"BC is a different beast next week, not to take anything away from Duquesne. They have bigger guys who are faster. AJ Dillon will have their attention, and their two safeties. (Connor) Strachan is back. We’ll put the tape on Monday morning,” said UMass head coach Mark Whipple.

Despite his struggles reviving UMass, Whipple is a smart guy and a pretty good X and Os coach. I am not fearful but I do think he will have them ready for BC. I also think he will have a wrinkle or two to keep BC on our toes.

The best thing about the UMass win was that it is a reminder that College Football is back.

A gambler who believes in BC

This is random, but I came across this interview with ESPN's Ian Fitzsimmons. In it he talks about gambling on the upcoming College Football season and early bets. It can be your typical radio appearance until he gets to BC [BC talk starts at 6:50]. He loves BC and thinks we can win eight or nine. Get on the bandwagon now folks.

Disagreeing with Herald's Players to Watch list

The Herald put up a pretty innocuous five Players to Watch article and it got me thinking. Their list might be the best five but they are all the established, veteran guys. We know what to expect from that group. What I find more interesting are the players who might emerge or breakout. With that here are my three players to watch. These guys will really determine the season.

1. Anthony Brown. His health and ability to pass are the most important unknowns heading into the season.
2. Ray Smith. We are young and thin at DT. Smith needs to play well and play a lot.
3. Colton Lichtenberg. It always comes down to the kicker with Daz. If this is the year we finally break seven wins, it will be critical that Colton kick well from the start.

Best of luck to Ryan Day

Ohio State suspended Urban Meyer for three games for his actions related to Zach Smith's issues. That means interim Head Coach Ryan Day will get his first experience as a head coach this year. Congrats to him.

Day has a long history with BC -- and this blog. While I am sure Day would have preferred his first shot at something like this under different circumstance, this is still a great opportunity. If he team performs well, Day will be a top candidate for any openings this offseason. The accelerated time table does hurt his chances of ever coming back to BC as a head coach. But if anything the coaching carousel is unpredictable and Day might still end up at BC.

Final scrimmage complete

Addazio wrapped up his final scrimmage and the team will now start prepping for UMass. In the video below, he doesn't seem that excited, but the reports on the scrimmage were positive. Brown looked good and Dillon shined in limited action. Both backup QBs played well and the penalties were less of an issue. To an outsider, that all seems like good news. Maybe Addazio is just trying to contain expectations. Or maybe he also knows scrimmages don't matter -- UMass does.

BC gets votes but remains unranked

It is not where you start but how you finish. At least that is what I am telling myself as BC starts the season outside the Top 25 in the AP. After some high profile people went on a limb for BC this summer, I thought we might start the season ranked. 

In total BC received 18 votes, good for 34th. If the season starts well, it shouldn't take long to move into the official Top 25.

BC's schedule is demanding, we face four ranked teams. Let's hope by the end of the season, we have at least four quality wins and are ranked too.

Strachan talks

The injured player that we are all focusing on is Anthony Brown, but on there is an equally important piece returning on the Defense. Connor Strachan went down early in his senior year and recieve a medical redshirt. He's seemingly healthy and back now for one final season. 

The upside of his injury was the rapid development of the younger players on the depth chart. Now, if everyone stays healthy, we should have our deepest and most talented LB group since the 2007-2009 days.

Addazio not thrilled with 2nd scrimmage

BC provided some notes on Saturday's scrimmage without providing much info. Brown took his first live snaps and Dillon sat out. That's the only concrete news.

Steve Addazio provided more of the real reaction out of the scrimmage. He didn't like it. You can see below, but it seems like neither side was crisp and there was plenty of confusion...and lethargy. When prompted to discuss the QBs, he said none were that great. We know from the write ups, that the D controlled, but Addazio doesn't really give them credit either.

It is nothing to get worked up about. It is only an intra squad scrimmage. This is about working out the kinks so that the opener is crisp.

First BC win of the school year is in Women's Soccer

Classes are still a few weeks away, but the sports season has started. The Women's Soccer team started the year off right with a win over Quinnipiac. Olivia Vaughn scored two of BC's four goals. Their season continues Sunday against Northeastern.

BC not making a big deal about Brown practicing

We've seem to hit the doldrums of summer training camp. Things are no longer new and there isn't much concrete reporting or updates. If you read between the lines, the biggest news to me is that BC is not making a bigger deal of Anthony Brown's play. The returning starter is clearly taking snaps with the first team but they don't mention any of his throws. That leaves me to overthink this whole thing. Are they not mentioning his throws or completions because he is not making any or because it is so routine it doesn't merit a mention?

Friday will bring more vague practice reporting. However, Saturday's scrimmage will be a big deal. If BC is still not mentioning Brown's play by then, it will be time for us to truly overthink this and worry.

Watch Dillon run over people for fun

Someone at the ACC office must really like AJ Dillon, because they keep making highlight reel videos for him. Imagine if he is even better this year? The ACC will start producing 10-hour mini-series of those highlights. Enjoy.

Still no love from Jerry Palm

Hype, hype, hype. That's all we've heard and read about BC this summer. Dillon a darkhorse candidate! BC a Top 25 team! Even getting votes from coaches! But there are still a few skeptics. Like CBS's Jerry Palm. He puts together extensive Bowl Projections and still sees BC staying home. Palm has been off the bandwagon all summer, but I thought seeing other projections coupled with the positive perception might get him to include BC for his latest projections. (I also understand changing the projections during the summer before any game is sort of pointless.)

BC will go bowling this year. The schedule has enough wins built in to make getting to bowl doable. If Palm is right and BC has a losing record this year, I think we will have more than a bowl game to worry about.

Viral tweet shows what's right and still wrong

Did you see this Monday?

4/5-star recruits over the past 5 years…
Texas - 60
Boston Coll - 4

Record over the past 5 years…
Texas - 31-32
BC - 31-33

NFL Draft picks past 5 years:
Texas - 11
BC - 14

— Hidden Agenda Generator (@DavidHaleESPN) August 13, 2018

It got a decent amount of attention and led to many people complimenting Addazio on his talent identification and development. He does deserve credit and it has been one of the things he's delivered on. But the tweet is a backhanded compliment since it also points out that despite the influx of talent, BC's record under Addazio is still under .500. He's building a pipeline that develops talent at a better rate than Texas -- at a private school in Boston -- yet is not winning at a high rate. If Addazio doesn't break through his ceiling soon, most of this will be for naught. Talent is primary and should win out in most cases. If you have talent and are not winning then you have to question how your coaches are managing the talent when it counts.

Zach Allen press going beyond Boston

Another day, another story on Zach Allen. While not at Dillon levels yet, Allen is getting attention beyond the local BC and ACC Channels. This one deals with his background in Connecticut and his intense work ethic. It will be interesting to see how Zach's play on the field changes this year, since he will be the focal point. Last year without Landry he made big strides, but was still on the field with plenty of veteran talent. This year the talent remains but it is a bit untested. Leaving Allen to fill the void and serve as a role model for his teammates.

Time for the McDonald bandwagon?

BC held its first scrimmage of the preseason. They didn't provide specific individual stats, but based on the write up and interviews, it seems to have gone well. Addazio voiced plenty of frustration about penalties, but other than that, seemed to like the effort.

He also responded to a question about backup QB Matt McDonald and said he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks he's ever been around. This follows other write ups about McDonald's surprising and efficient play. So I ask, is it time to start the McDonald bandwagon? I like Brown and I am encouraged that he's doing better, but all this team really needs is a guy who can make good throws. With everyone trying to stop the run, receiving matchups and short throws will be open. Maybe McDonald is the guy to hit those throws and lead an offensive explosion. Even if Brown is healthy, I hope we see McDonald is some mop up duty and he turns these practice moments into real wins.

NJ Linebacker commits

BC ended the week with some good news -- New Jersey Linebacker Shitta Sillah verbaled to Addazio. He's a three star with the services and considered a Top 20 player in New Jersey. His Power 5 offers included Michigan State, Purdue, Duke, Syracuse, Rutgers and Nebraska. He's tall but not filled out yet, so maybe he could move to some sort of DE role. Welcome aboard, Shitta.

Basketball hosting elite guard

New York shooting guard Joe Girard has a pretty impressive list schools. He is set to visit Syracuse, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State and Duke. But before he gets to most, he used one of his official visits to come to BC. The 2019 recruit has been on Christian's radar for a while, so it is nice that they've moved him from potential to a true campus visitor.

Brown gets media attention, which means he's ok

Anthony Brown is the starter for Steve Addazio. As much as Daz hedges and downplays the opening battle and Brown's recovery, this is not like last year. Brown will start the first game at QB.

I haven't watched practice nor do I have access to Addazio. I just know that two features on the QB in the same day (New Jersey paper | the Herald) means that is he probably ok and will the top of the depth charge until he does something to lose the job.

Thoughts on Media Day

BC posted a quick behind the scenes video, but there are full video below (with my thoughts).

By way of his promotion Campanile now gets direct media time. Nothing too revealing but he does talk about Hamp Cheevers progression and his expectations of his jump in play.

I always enjoy Jim Reid's media sessions because he's so passionate. Sometimes with older coaches you wonder how they connect with young players, but with Reid you can see how players would like him.

Loeffler got more time and most of it was spent on Brown's development. Loeffler comes off as knowledgeable and presentable but isn't as dynamic in front of the camera as the other Coordinators.

Addazio spoke for a long time. He seems pretty excited about his players and his team. He is saying the right things. The small -- but important thing to me -- was that Addazio had a shirt with the throwback logo! BC needs to make a logo switch!

What to expect out of BC's Media Day

Tuesday is BC's annual Media Day. Since the team is only a week into practices, there is usually nothing revelatory about who is doing what or who is shining and rising up the depth chart. It will be interesting to see how the local media approaches Addazio. I imagine there will be a few topics:

1. Expectations. BC is getting national attention and votes in the Coaches Poll. This is the most preseason hype to any Addazio team. Will he use the Media Day to raise expectations or lower them?

2. Follow up on Smith. There will be a few new media members there. Will any even broach the Smith-Addazio history or just let Saturday night's statement stand?

I also am interested to see how much of a push they give Dillon. This could be a huge statistical season for the second year RB. He puts up the type of highlights that the College Football media love. He's an under the radar Heisman candidate now. Does BC give him a big push Tuesday to let the local media know that Dillon is going to be a national name?

Watch Anthony Brown talk about being back

Because he's been sidelined with a knee injury, we haven't heard much from Anthony Brown. Friday he spoke to the media for an extended time. He didn't reveal much, but his presence and demeanor do show a level of confidence. I hope he is this calm and confident because the knee feels good and he's ready for a big year.

Addazio, Jarmond release statements to Globe about Smith

Addazio and Jarmond finally did the smart thing and released individual statements on Zach Smith. (It seems like the Globe was the only outlet that got the statements.) A written release was probably safer and better than making comments in front of the cameras. They say the right things without getting into the specifics of what each knew and when they knew it. It will be interesting if this is the last the two talk about it and if the national media guys start to dig into the issue and Smith's history.