Checking in on Bowl projections

With the win, BC is one step closer to another bowl game. But where will we go? Here is what the experts are saying:

CBS -- The Sun Bowl vs Stanford.
In my opinion, this would be a pretty good solution. A lower tier, yet respectable bowl plus an interesting opponent.

SB Nation -- Military Bowl vs Cincinnati
This is not exciting, but it is very plausible. The only upside is that BC fans could go to the game.

ESPN -- The Sun Bowl vs either USC or Utah
I am glad to see the consensus around the Sun Bowl. Like last year with the Pinstripe, it probably means the Bowl, BC and the ACC are already talking it through.

What do the computers and experts think of BC now?

We were all focused on BC's AP ranking last week, but what i found more significant is what the computer polls thought of BC. At one point we were considered a favorite or slight favorite in all our future games with the exception of Clemson. That is changed now. In ESPN's FPI, BC is once again considered the underdog against NC State, Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech. The FSU and Syracuse games still see BC as a favorite but not as significant as prior weeks. I know none of this really makes a difference on the field, but it is interesting what a poor performance will do.

ESPN's Bowl team still has BC headed to respectable bowls (Music City and Camping World). Others sports sites are not as optimistic about BC's bowl prospects:
-- Sports Illustrated: Independence
-- The Sporting News: Military
-- CBS: Military

Still no love from Jerry Palm

Hype, hype, hype. That's all we've heard and read about BC this summer. Dillon a darkhorse candidate! BC a Top 25 team! Even getting votes from coaches! But there are still a few skeptics. Like CBS's Jerry Palm. He puts together extensive Bowl Projections and still sees BC staying home. Palm has been off the bandwagon all summer, but I thought seeing other projections coupled with the positive perception might get him to include BC for his latest projections. (I also understand changing the projections during the summer before any game is sort of pointless.)

BC will go bowling this year. The schedule has enough wins built in to make getting to bowl doable. If Palm is right and BC has a losing record this year, I think we will have more than a bowl game to worry about.

Pining for Pinstripe but not looking as good

This week's Playoff reveal doesn't mean much for BC. What really matters is next week when the real dominoes fall. I think most BC fans want the Pinstripe Bowl and the Pinstripe Bowl seemingly wanted us. But dear old Notre Dame screwed things up by losing to Stanford. That probably knocked the Irish out of any big bowl, so they will fall into the ACC's slots. That bumps nearly everyone in the conference down including BC.

Here are what the experts think as of Tuesday afternoon:

-- SBNation: BC to Pinstripe

-- ESPN: BC to Quicklane (Detroit) and BC to Independence (Shreveport); They have Virginia Tech and NC State going to Pinstripe

-- CBS: BC to the Military Bowl (Annapolis); They have NC State to the Pinstripe

-- SI: BC to Independence (Shreveport); They have Virginia Tech to Pinstripe

-- USA Today: BC to Pinstripe

-- Sporting News: BC to Military Bowl (Annapolis); They have Virginia to the Pinstripe 

I am biased but BC still seems like the best fit for the Pinstripe. We have a good regional fanbase that can sell tickets, we bring good TV ratings and there is an upswing in enthusiasm. We make much more sense than NC State or Virginia. However, I fear Virginia Tech. They will sell more tickets and have never played in the Pinstripe Bowl. The bowl's ability to bring in a fresh team with strong fan support is hard for BC to overcome. If we are knocked out of the Pinstripe, I believe it will be by the Hokies. 

If we don't get New York, it might be Shreveport or Detroit, with a chance at El Paso. In my opinion the worst option is Shreveport. We've been there recently, it makes no geographic sense and is not a compelling sell to fans or recruits. Going back to Detroit is not ideal, but at least we recruit the region. El Paso has some appeal to me as a football fan, but I doubt Addazio and Jarmond care about the history of the Sun Bowl. Keep your fingers crossed for New York.

More pessimism about BC's bowl chances

CFN put up their bowl predictions and has BC staying home. Given the ACC's ties to other bowls and the still outrageous number of bowl games, I don't see how BC misses out. If a Power 5 team gets to .500, they are going bowling. Heck, even with five regular season wins and a good APR, BC would probaby go bowling.

Could BC be terrible this year and miss out? Sure. But I just don't see it. There remains enough winnable games on the schedule and enough talent on D that BC should get to the required number of wins. If not, Jarmond will have to make some tough decisions early in his tenure.

Bowl talk and other links

CBS' Jerry Palm, who tends to be the most accurate, saw enough from BC to now slot us in a Bowl. He places us against Maryland in Detroit. That's progress, I guess.

The guy who scored the winning TD for Georgia Tech is now suspended. How come these things never happen before the game?

Andre Williams is hoping for a career resurrection in San Diego.

More Bowl predictions and other links

Campus Insiders predicts BC will get invited to the Quick Lane Bowl, which is the game played in Detroit on December 26. Remember the outrage when we last went there? I think most people would be happy with it now.

The Washington Post expects BC to win six games.

BC is now in full preparation for Georgia Tech.

Early look at the early Bowl Projections

Many are predicting a bounce back year for BC. The schedule is easy. The ACC media picked them fifth in the division. A lot of national rankings have them in the 60 to 70 range. If they get to 6-6, there should be a bowl game in their future. Yet not all of the early Bowl Projections see it that way. SBNation left out BC. They have 10 ACC teams plus Notre Dame in the postseason. But no BC.

Athlon is more optimistic. They have BC playing in the Military Bowl...against Temple. I know I just wrote about the pointlessness of playing Temple, but in this case I wouldn't mind. You can't really control who your bowl opponent is. Plus I think playing a winnable game in a relatively close city is not a bad way to end the season. The Military Bowl is not exciting your recruits and fans, but one more win does. Addazio lost his previous two BC bowls against name schools. Where did that get us? Might as well get a win.

There will be plenty of Bowl projections to come as we approach the season. It makes for great filler. It also gives us a barometer of how outsiders view BC right now. Let's hope we can exceed expectations.

Palm thinks we are going Bowling

CBS' Bowl guru Jerry Palm released his first bowl projections. Most people will focus on his playoff predictions. I am more focused on BC's chances. Palm sees BC making the Cactus Bowl as a replacement for the Pac 12 and facing Texas. If that is truly where BC ends up, sign me up now. The Cactus Bowl is a fairly desirable location (Phoenix) on a fairly good day (January 2). Facing a rebuilding Texas might not set the world on fire, but it would still be Texas, a legitimate college football power.

There will be plenty of bowl projections this year. I really don't care where BC goes, I just want them to go somewhere. Plus going bowling with two FCS teams on the schedule means BC wins at least seven games. (Unless we only win six and get in on a waiver.)

Finally time to start talking bowls

I've avoided too much bowl talk because for fear of it being premature. Now that we've become bowl eligible, I'm comfortable stoking the speculation a bit.

For most of the season, the ESPN folks slotted BC to Detroit or St. Pete. More recently focus shifted to the Pinstripe Bowl. Now Fox's Stewart Mandel thinks BC could rise as high as the Music City Bowl. While I am personally excited by the chance to see the team in Nashville, I am not fooling myself into thinking BC is ever going to be a local bowl committee favorite. Given that we are always in the also-ran bowls, these are my priorities for bowls:

1. Good destination for the players. This is still their reward. Good weather and good activities should be our priority. Of this year's realistic crop, the Bitcoin Bowl is probably the best destination. However, it would mean being away from home on Christmas.
2. Opponent. A Power 5 team is always preferred. It generates incremental interest and legitimacy the game.
3. Proximity to BC fans. While the attendance at Gillette was encouraging, I still have doubts about our fanbase travelling to any BC bowl. The Pinstripe would be a good test of that prejudice. The Milatary Bowl might get a decent BC contingent.
4. History of the bowl. Most of these games have been thrown together in the last ten years by a few locals and ESPN. The older, more established second-tier bowls offer a little history and aren't always looking for BC to buy tickets. That happened last year with the Independence Bowl. The same thing might happen this year if we get selected for the Sun Bowl.

We cannot play our way into the playoff or even the Big Six New Year's Games. But that doesn't mean that winning out won't make us more desirable. Now let's go out and shake things up and see where we land!

Experts already forgetting about BC

Bowl Projections are easy offseason filler...and so is critiquing them. I try to ignore the projections, but felt ESPN's first lists were worth noting because they left out BC.

ESPN posted Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach's picks and 10 ACC teams (plus Notre Dame) were slotted. What surprised me is that they don't account for BC getting an at large bid. As we've seen over the years, if a major conference team gets to six wins, they will end up in a bowl. BC's TV ratings in low-level bowls also lead to us backfilling open slots. It could be that neither McMurphy or Schlaback don't think BC will get to six wins. But most of the early previews have the Eagles in that neighborhood. CBS's early projections had BC going to Detroit.

I will make my predictions later this summer, but I am not worried about BC staying home. As usual, if we get eligible, it will all work itself out.

The fake Cotton Bowl is better than the real Independence Bowl

The news of the day is that Bates is working the back channels to get BC into the Heart of Dallas Bowl instead of the ACC-affiliated Independence Bowl. This makes sense on so many level that I expect something to happen this weekend to screw it up.

Although the game is played in the actual Cotton Bowl, the actual Cotton Bowl game is now played in Jerry's World in Arlington. This game was created to keep the building full and justify its recent renovations. But the bowl has a lot going for it. First it is played in a major city with a decent BC Alumni population. Second it is played on January 1. While it may be the least important January 1 game, it would still allow BC to be part of the biggest day in college football. And 99% of our fans would have the day off and be able to watch it live.

Other than its confusing history and identity, the only real drawback to Dallas game would be the opponent. Due to the Conference USA affiliation, the other team is likely to be Rice or North Texas. However, there is no guarantee that the Independence Bowl will find a better opponent.

In theory the Independence Bowl could pair up its ACC rep with an at large Pac 12 team. That would be ideal, but I don't see it happening. The Independence Bowl needs to sell some tickets and BC vs Oregon State will bring no one to Shreveport. The more likely outcome it that the Independence Bowl backfills with another regional mid-major team that might sell tickets. That would leave BC in an undesirable location in an undesirable timeslot vs an unappealing opponent. Do you think we'd sell any tickets for that? Let Pitt or Syracuse bear the brunt of triple whammy.

Nitpicking aspects of bowls is a nice problem to have again. But if BC is playing Rice on New Year's Day in the Cotton Bowl, I won't complain.

Don't get worked up over Bowl projections

There will be a ton of bowl projections this week. Don't read too much into any of them. BC is bowling but won't be going to a BCS game. That is the extent of what we know. Everything else is speculation at this point. Don't worry. Don't feel wronged if BC ends up in a bowl you've never heard of. None of that really matters. What matters is that we get one more game, the Seniors get a bowl trip and Addazio gets a chance to end the season on a winning note. Here is a little more about what we know.

It all depends on the Orange Bowl

The ACC is the Orange Bowl's partner. However, since Florida State seems headed for the Championship Game, the Orange Bowl can take two non-ACC teams. Speculation is mixed on if they will. Clemson's loss hurt, but there aren't that many better two-loss teams that will also travel to Miami. If the Orange Bowl passes on Clemson, that knocks down each ACC team one slot. But the offset of them picking a SEC or Pac 12 team is that it will open up another bowl slot elsewhere. BC is dealing at the lower end of bowl slots anyway, so does it really matter if we have the ninth ACC game or replace the ninth SEC team?

The Championship Games will mix everything up

All the bowl projections assume the favorites win this weekend. Do you ever want to count on that happening? BC is not in that mix, but each game has a ripple effect on us. Like the Orange Bowl scenario, the lower level bowls will backfill based on what happens with their member conferences' champions.

ESPN will take care of BC and the ACC

There is no scenario where BC is left out. ESPN owns and operates seven bowls. As of today three of them will have to replace a team. ESPN will always go with a bigger market team from the ACC over one from a midmajor. It makes sense for them to keep the ACC happy and it makes for better ratings.

Priorities for Bowl selection

BC became bowl eligible over the weekend. That's a nice accomplishment. However, our bowl history and a stacked year in the ACC means despite being eligible, BC may not get one of the ACC's current bowl slots. There are many scenarios in play from how BC finishes, to the "BC rule" that limits who bowls can select over us, to how many ACC teams make BCS games. Even if we are part of the ACC's current bowl group, there is always a bit of marketing and politics that go into the process.

But just because BC is not in the Driver's Seat doesn't mean we cannot work for what we want. If we are willing to compromise on some things, we can be rewarded with other factors. Other ACC teams might not want to play on certain days or travel to certain cities. Brad Bates has yet to show his cards. We don't know what's important to him. What I hope is that he priortizes things this way:

1. Opponent. We could play a bowl game in Alumni and still have trouble selling tickets. At this point a bowl game is not about where the most BC fans will buy tickets. It is about respect and perception. To help validate this season, BC needs to end it with a win over a name opponent. I don't care if we have to play in Shreveport or the moon, Bates should attempt to find us the best opponent. That doesn't mean highest rated either. Fair or not, BC fans and would rather see us play a team from a BCS conference than a ranked team from a mid-major.
2. Location. Location doesn't matter for the fans. But it does matter for the players. This is their reward. I want a bowl trip to be fun and preferable warm for them. Take the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl as an example. It is played in the Trop against a no-name opponent. It has a terrible corporate name and no history. Yet for the players, it would be reasonably fun. The weather might mean beach or pool time and there is a trip to Busch Gardens. That might not be your idea of fun, but considering the other options for the players, St. Pete is better than Boise.
3. Date. This is the tricky one for schools that have late exam periods. Some programs don't want to hold bowl practices during exams or study periods. I hope this isn't an issue for Bates. We have played on Christmas Day twice. We can work around a December 23 game or one right after Christmas. In fact, I hope he uses our flexibility on the game date to work BC into a more desirable bowl.

BC vs Notre Dame...in a Bowl!

Want to make BC fans care about a lower-level bowl? Easy solution: just add the Irish. As Brian pointed out in his projections roundup many of the pundits are slotting BC to play Notre Dame in the Independence Bowl. (Obviously this is all predicated on BC becoming bowl eligible.) If BC wants to cap off its first year under Addazio, the best way to do it would be in a postseason game against Notre Dame.

There are multiple perception problems with the bowls BC typically plays. The destination, the history and the dates are usually undesirable. But the bigger issue for most of our casual fans is the opponent. For every Georgia or USC we played, BC also ended up in games against Colorado State and Toledo. If you play Notre Dame, that is not a problem. Good or bad, the Irish are instant credibility to the typical BC alum and the local media.

When we were good, I bemoaned the Irish-obsession among the casual fans. Now that we're hopefully back on the upswing and still playing in less than capacity home games, I welcome any and all interest BC can get. I think we match up well against Notre Dame this year too. There offense is error-prone and they can be run on. It would probably be a low-scoring slugfest.

Even the most optimistic BC fan will admit a game against Notre Dame in Shreveport on New Year's Eve won't draw many BC fans. But it will do really well in the ratings. Attendance is fairly consistent for the game, so maybe they don't need BC to travel. If ESPN is pushing things as they typically do, a BC-Notre Dame game will be perfect.

The Virginia Tech win was nice and for now serves as Addazio's signature win at BC. We don't need a name-brand opponent to validate this year. But starting a new bowl streak in a new era against our favorite opponent would be a nice way to end 2013.

For those true nuts, here is video of the BC vs Notre Dame in the 1983 Liberty Bowl.

Hockey crushes RPI and other links

The Hockey team quickly bounced back from their disappointment in Michigan to thrash RPI 7-2 at Conte on Sunday. Seven guys scored and Demko had 25 saves. The team faces Wisconsin this Friday.

The BC men and BC women's soccer teams both lost to UNC over the weekend (men | women)

Even with our impressive showing, AA and HD still don't have us bowling. I am not worried. If we get to six wins, we will go somewhere. And doesn't everyone feel pretty good about our chances to get three more wins?

You might have missed this last week, but CBS's Jon Rothstein was at Basketball practice last week and tweeted out a series of quotes and observations about BC. Donahue had a lot to say. It is worth scrolling back through Rothstein's timeline to read the entries.

This isn't BC-specific but I thought TCU's attendance issues should be on our radar. The school has had BCS-level success lately and renovated their stadium, but remains a private school in a big Metro market. I don't know if there is a specific lesson for BC, but I don't think we should expand capacity when we renovate Alumni.

Bowls Pros and Cons

As usual this time of year, the Bowl picture is a jumble. To recap, BC is a bad ticket seller, but a pretty good TV draw. Our 4-4 conference record negates the "BC rule" which means all the eligible ACC teams can be selected ahead of us. The good news though is that Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech all ended their seasons with a thud and are not expected to buy tickets in bulk. BC is in the mix for the Sun (El Paso), Military (Washington, D.C.) and the Kraftfighthunger (San Francisco). I've covered some of this ground before, but now that we know some of the opponents and new options, I will do a quick Pros and Cons.

Sun Bowl
Pros: Historic. Easily the most prestigious Bowl BC will have played in since the Outback/Hall of Fame with Coughlin. It is sort of a local event in El Paso, so ticket sales are not a big deal. They are more concerned with good TV ratings. We don't have a big alumni base in west Texas, but who knows, our fans in Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio might rally. It's got a decent date and TV timeslot (December 31 at 2 PM). There is a rumored SEC opponent.
Cons: It is in El Paso. I've been to El Paso. It has its charm but very, very few BC fans are going to make that trip. It is also down on the list of desirable locations for the players and their families. The rumored SEC opponent is still just a rumor. We could very well end up playing a MAC team. The violence across the border has taken away from some of the seedy charm a trip to El Paso used to have. Fans and players can't wander over to Mexico to check things out.

Military
Pros: It's close. It's near one of our biggest Alumni centers. We might sell a decent amount of tickets.
Cons: We would play East Carolina and Dominique Davis. The BC DC Club fears that the 29th might be a bad date to generate interest and ticket sales. It is a bad date for exams and practice schedules and a less appealing TV timeslot (2:30 PM).

Kraft Fight Hunger
Pros: It is a good date and is potentially against Boise State or Nevada.
Cons: We were just there and it is potentially against Boise State or Nevada.

My opinion
Knowing that we would face East Carolina soured me on the Military Bowl. It is the ultimate lose/lose game. Our fans won't care. The Dominique Davis narrative is overwhelming and I actually think ECU would give us a heck of a game. I don't know if BC fans have noticed but they have a prolific offense. We could slow them down, but could our offense score enough?

I've been in favor of a return trip to San Francisco and the prospect of Nevada or Boise State makes it that much more appealing. In my mind it is a win/win. We would be huge underdogs against Boise State and slight underdogs against Nevada. I actually think that with a month to prepare we would and could beat both. It would be a huge attention getter at the end of the season and end the season on a high note.

The Sun Bowl seems like a decent and safe fit. Ticket sales are not a factor (which screams BC!). We would get it checked off of the ACC rotation (would you rather go to the Sun Bowl this year or in a year where we went 10-2). The biggest plus is that we could face a name yet struggling team like Georgia or Tennessee. For many BC fans the name means more than the ranking.

With all that said, my vote is for the Sun and I hope Gene is working the phones now.

Know your likely BC bowls: Sun Bowl

Since we know BC will never be selected for the top bowls, the only options are playing our way into the Orange or getting sent down to the afterthought bowls. The ACC has some new bowl affiliations this year, so I thought we should take the time to learn about our likely destinations. This will be a series of posts over the summer. Part II is the Sun Bowl.

Bowl: Brut Sun Bowl
Named Sponsor: Brut -- the men's deodorant and aftershave company. BC guy alums from the '90s will have to confirm this, but I think we got a sample of Brut deodorant in one of those welcome boxes from when you check into the dorms. I know they threw in Right Guard at times too, but I think Brut was part of it because I had an unused travel size Brut stick rolling around in my stuff for ages. As for sponsorship, Brut is fine, I guess. We've had so many random companies associated with our games, what's wrong with a company dedicated to making guys smell good?
History: The Sun Bowl has a great history. It is the fourth oldest and continuous bowl and has a strong payout of $1.9M. Although the early games attracted regional teams, many of college football's biggest programs like Alabama, Oklahoma and USC have played in the game. Because of its age and history the Sun Bowl has always had decent TV coverage and time slots.
Opposing Conference: Pac 10. The Pac 10's got good depth yet their fans don't travel. So if we end up in the Sun, we will face a good team in front of a truly neutral crowd. Not bad.
Date: December 31, 2010. The game will be on CBS at 2 PM ET. December 31st day games are not bad, since they won't encroach on anyone's New Year's Eve plans.
Location: El Paso, Texas. Of all the places to go, El Paso is not a bad spot. It has a unique feel, will have decent weather and there is good golf and other things to do. In most years, El Paso would be a fun place to spend New Year's. In the past, those looking for a little fun, something wild, etc could always cross the border for the night. Now...not so much. All that violence you read about in Mexico is butting right up against the border, taking some of the cheesy charm out of El Paso. The real downside to El Paso is that it is hard to get to...even if you are in Texas. El Paso is closer to Phoenix than it is to Dallas. There are very few direct flights from the east so most Eagles will probably have to connect through Chicago, Dallas or Atlanta.
Fun Fact: The Sun Bowl takes place in the Sun Bowl Stadium and is only half a mile from the Rio Grande. The stadium also looks cool on TV as it is built into a hill.
Prediction: The ACC Championship game loser cannot fall below the Sun Bowl, so there is a very real chance we could play here. I actually don't think it is a bad spot -- nice little history, a unique destination, potentially interesting opponent. I just fear that no BC fans will make it to the game. I don't think I could swing it. If the ACC keeps its affiliation with the Sun Bowl, we will end up there eventually but probably not this season.

Know your likely BC bowls: Independence Bowl

Since we know BC will never be selected for the top bowls, the only options are playing our way into the Orange or getting sent down to the afterthought bowls. The ACC has some new bowl affiliations this year, so I thought we should take the time to learn about our likely destinations. This will be a series of posts over the summer. Part I is the Independence Bowl.

Bowl: AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Named Sponsor: AdvoCare V100. Advocare is a over the counter multivitamin and mineral supplement. Their current claim to fame is that they are not banned by the NCAA! I would hope not. I am guessing the bowl goodie bag will be filled with powders and vitamins that you can only find at GNC. This is a sponsor any Strength and Conditioning coach should love.
History: The Independence Bowl has a fairly decent history. It has been played since 1976 and is the 9th oldest in college football. Although it has never been a major bowl, some of college football's elite programs have made stops in Shreveport along the way, including Notre Dame, Washington, LSU, Georgia and Nebraska.
Opposing Conference: The Mountain West. So we could likely see some teams we have played in recent years like BYU or Colorado State.
Date: Monday, December 27 at 4:30 pm. That's a tough slot to make for anyone. I don't think I would be able to swing it. Fortunately the game is on ESPN.
Location: Shreveport, Louisiana. Let me first state that the goal of this series is not to mock the bowl hosts. That said, Shreveport is a really bad spot for a bowl game. It is hard to get to for most fans on the east coast. It has the chance to be real cold during the game. There are some historical sites to check out and a collection of third-rate casinos, but that's about it. It is not like you could even stay in New Orleans and drive to the game -- they are 400 miles apart.
Not so Fun Fact: Last year when Georgia played in the Independence Bowl, the strip clubs in Shreveport were advertising on the Atlanta sports radio stations...so we have that to look forward to.
Prediction: We are going to the Independence Bowl. I will publish the whole series and hope for an ACC championship, but I think we end of here regardless of our record.

Soccer loses and other weekend links

The men's soccer team season ended with a 6-4 loss to Drake in the NCAA tournament. The high scoring affair put an end to the uneven season. The nice point is that they ended the season well and now regularly expect to make the playoffs. For those who missed it, the women's team got bounced from the NCAAs by Stanford on Friday night.

Everyone has us going to San Francisco to most likely play Stanford in the Emerald Nut Bowl.

HD gave Steve Aponavicius a helmet sticker despite his one miss.