Addazio vs BC's actual history

Addazio referenced winning historically at BC and mentioned 6.5 wins per year since 1980. That's a misleading stat since the college football season has expanded gradually from 11 games, to 11 plus regular bowls, to 12 plus regular bowls. In my opinion, it is probably better to measure Addazio's body of work using winning percentage. Right now he sits at .500. And to me that feels like the sort of coach he is. But I feel like BC can be more and that history is not told through 6.5 wins per year, but through what a variety of coaches have done at the school under varied circumstances. Take a look:

Winning Percentage
Boston College All-Time: .560

Boston College Since DIA-DIAA Split: .538

Boston College Since joining a conference: .557

Boston College Since joining ACC: .547

Addazio: .500

Winning Percentage by Coach
Frank Leahy: 909
Jeff Jagodzinski: .714
Joseph Yukica: .648
Gilmour Dobie: .639
Tom O'Brien: .625
Frank Cavanaugh: .625
Mike Holovak: .623
Tom Coughlin: .614
Jim Miller: .586
Denny Myers: .561
Jack Bicknell: .517
Steve Addazio: .500
Moody Sarno: .500
Dan Henning: .458
Frank Spaziani: .431
Ernest Hefferle: .375
Ed Chlebek: .364

Conference Winning Percentage
Jagodzinski (ACC): .687

O'Brien (ACC): .625

Coughlin (Big East): .559

O'Brien (total): .521

O'Brien (Big East): .490
Henning (Big East): 452
Spaziani (ACC): .406
Addazio (ACC): .375

Winning Seasons
Yukica: 9
O'Brien: 8
Holovak: 7
Addazio: 5
Bicknell: 4

Miller: 4

Spaziani:2
Jagodzinski: 2
Coughlin: 2
Henning: 1

Rettig's breakout a sign of things to come

Rettig played really well on Saturday. Despite the many still doubting him, I think he's going to have a great season and thrive in the new offense. If we have a winning record it will be on his shoulder.

Too good to be a fluke
Even in today's era of wide-open college offenses, passing for 441 yards still means something. It was better than Matt Ryan's best day as an Eagle. It was just seven yards short of Foley's best at BC. In fact, the only guys ahead of Rettig on the single game chart are Flutie, Foley and Halloran. Miami is not the Miami of old but this was the third best performance against them all-time (behind only Flute and Cade McNown). These types of games don't come easy. I know Chris Crane had a 400 yarder too, but if you look back on his career, that was a turning point. He never approached that level again before getting hurt, but it was a sign that he could finally function in the offense. Even if Rettig just gets to Crane like numbers (which is a pretty low bar), we'll have a winnning season.

This wasn't just the OC changing things
I am President of the Doug Martin Fan Club but this breakout wasn't solely because of his offense. He's not some Mike Leach guy who just takes over and produces ludicrous passing numbers. His quarterbacks only surpassed 400 yards once last year at New Mexico State. In all his time at Kent State not once did one of his QBs pass for 400 yards. We threw because that is what the gameplan called for and because we were behind. But the success of the passing game was due to Rettig.

On other teams the day would have been bigger
I hate to downgrade our own players, but how many future NFL talents was Rettig passing to? How many of the skill guys who played on Saturday will make an All ACC team? Maybe Amidon. Maybe Kimble. But this was not some sort of all-star seven on seven drill. This was Rettig making tough, tight passes to below average ACC talent at the skill positions. And don't forget the drops. We would have had more TDs and probably more yards if even half the drops were caught.

Paying your dues pays off
It is not fool proof, but there is a strong correlation in college football of players maturing into the role after starting more than 20 games. Rettig's been the starter for a season and a half. He's dealt with multiple offenses and coaching issues. Now, I believe, he gets it. He understands how a play develops and he has a much better feel for the pocket.

The throws
The varied throws and the mix of darts and touch passes shows that he can put the ball where it needs to be. That may sound simple and easy, but it is not.

Maine won't tell us much, but I believe once we hit the meat of the schedule, we'll have the best QB in the conference.

Softball season ends in ACC Tourney and other links

A disappointing season came to a close today as the softball team lost to No. 1 seed Georgia Tech, 8-0 in the opener of the ACC Tournament. The team finishes the season with a 16-33 record.

I asked Bruce Feldman about BC's chances in his chat on Friday. He still thinks we are second tier.

The news that Miami and Notre Dame are renewing their series is bad for BC. It is one less open date for the Irish and another ACC team on their schedule. However, if Notre Dame stays independent, our chances of getting them back on the schedule improve. As an indy they won't be able to play any Big Ten or SEC teams late in the year. The ACC and BC would accommodate them and give them much needed October and November dates.

This has been around a bit, but I thought some might find the analysis interesting. I always put a lot of weight into returning starters, but this study shows it is not a significant factor.

What to make of Shinskie's stats?

Last year when Jags kept excusing Chris Crane's play because he was a "rookie" I felt it was a cop out. This season I am more willing to accept the "rookie" tag as an excuse for Shinskie. Crane had four years in the program and two with Logan. Shinskie was in Spring Training in Florida this March while our team was installing Tranq's offense. There is a difference. My concern with Shinskie though is that we seen progression followed by regression. I was hoping for the learning curve to be on a steep uptick by now. But let's not use eye balls to decide where Shinskie is. Instead I will dig up a chart from last year. It is not totally apples to apples since Shinskie had cameo appearances outside of his seven starts that are in his stats below but does give a good benchmark of where he is relative to our past QBs.

QB	W-L	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs
Brian St. Pierre	6-1	180	55%	1,186	15	6	0
Quinton Porter	4-3	182	59%	1,293	14	5	1
Paul Peterson	6-1	194	61%	1,496	13	6	0
Matt Ryan	6-1	246	59%	1,621	9	7	5
Chris Crane	6-1	200	57%	1,249	6	10	9
Dave Shinskie	5-2	203	53%	1,495	12	9	1

Does this confirm what many of us are "seeing?" I would say that based on the stats you can say that Shinskie's not as accurate as he needs to be. He is aggressive though and willing and capably of going long.

This weekend Shinskie will face a very good defense with a ball hawking reputation. Let's hope he has another progression and is ready for the challenge. To win the division we can't have "rookie" mistakes.

How does Chris Crane compare to other "rookie" QBs?

Chris Crane has now started seven games. Jags and Logan will tell anyone listening that Crane is a rookie. This explains some of his struggles but not all. As a comparison, just look at BC last four QBs and their first seven games.

QB	W-L	Attempts	Comp Pct	Yards	Passing TDs	INTs	Rushing TDs
Brian St. Pierre	6-1	180	55%	1,186	15	6	0
Quinton Porter	4-3	182	59%	1,293	14	5	1
Paul Peterson	6-1	194	61%	1,496	13	6	0
Matt Ryan	6-1	246	59%	1,621	9	7	5
Chris Crane	6-1	200	57%	1,249	6	10	9

A few words on the context of the stats
Let me address a few things, before we get into the results.
-- W-Ls are most important and I think we all acknowledge that defense and scheduling play factor into the hot starts of most of our recent QBs.
-- I only counted games started, which hurts Crane and Porter. Both of them came into their starting run with much less playing time than St. Pierre, Peterson and Ryan.
-- Crane is operating out of a different offense and a different offensive philosophy than the previous four QBs.
With that out of the way…

Conclusion
Crane is clearly the most reckless (or error prone) QB to see the field in nearly a decade. He offsets some of the carelessness and poor decisions with his running ability in the red zone. His accuracy and productivity chart closer to our lower performing QBs rather than our top guys. He’s a rookie, but the upside is probably not where we want it to be. Excusing his poor play due to his inexperience makes for good spin. It is not the sole reason for his struggles.

Regardless, Crane is supported by the best group of receivers we’ve had in this time period. He’s also got a better D and better offensive coordinator than his predecessors. He’s good enough to get us to Tampa. We just need him to be slightly better than he has been.

Some historic and quirky notes from Saturday

Saturday's fireworks put some new lines in the BC record book.

Passing Yards: Game
1. Doug Flutie -- 520 (Penn State '82)
2. Doug Flutie -- 472 (Miami '84)
3. Shawn Halloran -- 453 (Syracuse '85)
4. Glenn Foley -- 448 (Virginia Tech '93)
5. Doug Flutie -- 447 (Penn State '84)
6. Matt Ryan -- 435 (Georgia Tech '07)
7. Chris Crane -- 428 (NC State '08)

Total Yards: Game
1. Doug Flutie -- 517 (Miami '84)
2. Doug Flutie -- 507 (Penn State '82)
3. Chris Crane -- 470 (NC State '08)

Receptions: Game
1T. Waddle, Mitchell, Waddle -- 13
4T. Adams, Brennan, Urban -- 12
7T. Callender, Mitchell, Toner, Phelan, Nizolek, Gunnell -- 11

Plays: Game
1. Matt Ryan -- 67 (Wake Forest '06)
2. Matt Ryan -- 63 (Maryland '07)
3. Chris Crane -- 62 (NC State '08)
3. Matt Ryan -- 62 (Florida State '07)

In TOB's ten years, one of his QBs threw for more than 400 yards once (Ryan -- Wake Forest 2006). In Jags' 1.5 seasons, a BC QB has thrown for more than 400 yards five times!

Can Spaz save the season?

I’ve been gushing about Matt Ryan to any Falcon fan who’ll listen. One recently said, “if he was so great, does that mean BC should suck this year?” My response: “not exactly.” I think the offense will struggle during the transition, but I also assume that the defense will offset many of the problems.

I’ve spent plenty of time criticizing Spaz, but we know what we are getting. In his time as our Defensive Coordinator we’ve held our opponents to an average of 20.2 points per game and 330.2 yards per game. Take a look at the consistency below.

Year	Points Allowed Per Game	Total Defense Per Game
2007	20.4	284.2
2006	15.7	310.8
2005	15.9	311.7
2004	16.9	332.8
2003	25.5	358.3
2002	19.5	338.7
2001	18.9	299.9
2000	23.1	349.0
1999	25.7	386.4

(Note: last season’s points allowed number is a bit deceiving. Remember that the offense allowed five INTs for TDs.)
Now, allow me to make some broad assumptions:
-- I am assuming the linebackers will be better (good depth and Toal’s return)
-- I am assuming that the defensive line will be better (good young players at the Ends, good experience and Raji’s return)
-- The secondary will struggle (no Silva, no Tribble)
-- Our opponents will not have the same generous field position they had last season (it can’t get much worse)

Based on those assumptions, I think Spaz can produce another unit that limits our opponents to less than 20 points per game. In seasons where we limited our opponents to less than 20, we’ve averaged nine wins. I am not predicting nine wins, but our defense should keep us very competitive.

Just win, baby

Although he has never been a head coach, Jags isn’t some newbie walking in off the street. With his 20+ years experience also comes with a nice track record of performance. The teams Jags has been a part of are 159-116-1 (per standards in each level of the sport, I did count college postseason but not NFL postseason into this record.) Here is a breakdown of Jags travels. Ironically, the only place where he coached for more than one season without a winning record was Boston College.

1986, Northern Illinois – 2-9
1987-88, LSU – 18-5
1989-1996, East Carolina – 53-38
1997-1998, Boston College – 8-14
1999-2003, Green Bay Packers – 51-29
2004-2005, Atlanta Falcons – 19-13
2006, Green Bay Packers – 8-8

Ultimately this doesn’t guarantee anything. After all, Dan Henning won two Super Bowls prior to coming to BC. But like many of the things I’ve tried to examine this summer, I think it is a good indicator. If anything the guy knows when to pick his spots…he turned the ECU job into a coordinator spot and the BC gig into an NFL job, he left the Packers before they collapsed and left the Falcons before their collapse. Let’s hope his winning ways and ability to find good jobs where he can succeed continues at the Heights.

Kicking around some ideas on kick returns

One of the overlooked rule changes of the offseason is the move of kickoffs from the 35 to the 30 yard line. Since we have one of the better kick off return man in the country, BC should stand to benefit. But how much?

I cannot find how many times teams successfully touched back on BC in 2006 (if anyone has the stat, please send it to me). However, of the 31 kickoffs BC returned last year, the team generated 813 yards and averaged 26.5 yards a return. Jeff Smith accounted for 23 of those returns last year, accumulating 645 yards and averaging 28 yards a return.

The number of returns a team gets per year is ultimately a product of how good your defense is and how good your opponent’s kicker is. This season our veteran, experienced defense will probably allow fewer points. However, the new rule will probably mean that BC will get at least 12 more returns on the season (I am conservatively estimating an increase of 1 per game). Let’s also assume that Smith gets a greater share of the total returns this year (Perhaps 85% instead of last season’s 74%). I don’t want to go overboard, so I’ll also assume that teams adjust to Smith and his average return declines a bit (say 10%). I’ll also assume that the returns Smith is not a part of will decline too (say another 10%). With all that factored in how many more total yards can we expect?



Expected returns by Jeff Smith [42 x 85%] = 36
Smith expected return average = 25.2
Expected number of returns by rest of team = 6
Average of return men not including Smith = 18.9
Total predicted return yardage in 2007 = 1,013 [(36x25.2)+(6x18.9)]

That is an improvement of 200 yards. Not enough to change a season, but certainly enough to improve a game or two.

Now the flipside is that BC will be defending more returns. I am not as concerned about this because things really couldn’t get much worse than they got last season. With our various kicker issues, we did not get many touchbacks last season. If our new freshman kicker can really boot the ball, then our kick coverage is bound to improve.

BC Coaches in their first year

I’ve focused a lot (maybe too much) on Jags’ time as Offensive Coordinator at BC. Maybe it is time to look at how other coaches performed in their first season on the Heights and what sort of indicator each season turned out to be. To keep this somewhat brief and relevant, I focused on the modern era (divisional football) and started with Yukica.

Year	Coach	Record	Win Pct Year 1	Win Pct Change from Predecessor's prior season	Win Pct for BC Career
1968	Joe Yukica	6-3	.667	+.267	.648
1978	Ed Chlebek	0-11	.000	-.545	.364
1981	Jack Bicknell	5-6	.455	-.182	.517
1991	Tom Coughlin	4-7	.364	.000	.614
1994	Dan Henning	7-4-1	.636	-.114	.458
1997	Tom O’Brien	4-7	.364	-.053	.625

As you can see, first years were rough. Only Yukica improved on his predecessor’s previous year. The first year also proved pretty telling for future success. The guys who struggled more tended to have a less successful career at BC.

As for Jags, despite our tough ACC schedule and the high bar of 10 wins, I think he has the chance to join Yukica as the only guy to improve the team in his first year.