BC-Boise State preview

It feels like forever since BC last played. Since the Syracuse loss, we had the non-firing (despite the media speculation) and the luke-warm extension, plus the Early Signing Day. That's a lot of BC Football stuff without any games. Addazio has spent the majority of his time talking about development and the game being a reward, but let's not fool ourselves. He needs this win. It would give him the ever allusive 8th "W" and beating Boise would probably be one of his better wins in his BC tenure.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Playoff expansion talk is bound to become actual expansion. And that will likely kill or greatly reduce the number of bowl games. I think coaches and schools will still want them, but will it make sense to the TV partners? If the gravy train ends, that means BC will be home most holidays and the season will end in November. I guess I am fine with that. I like more football, but I don't think we can buy into the precious "development time" that comes with these bowl games. There is little evidence that any of these bowl practices ever made a difference for any of these BC teams the following year. The trade off for BC and fans like us, is that BC loses that development time and one more game, but we will probably make up for it with gobs and gobs of money (which will hopefully get to the players).

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the jet sweeps early. BC got away from it in the second half of the season, but I think they are critical to helping open up things for Dillon between the tackles. If they are crowding the line, we need to spread them out one way or another.
2. Shut down their running game. This will be on our DTs and LBs. If Boise can't run, we got this.
3. No Special Teams problems. When we have bad Special Teams (fumbles and missed FGs) it all falls apart. When we play well, we win.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 1-3 in bowl games at BC
-- Harsin is 3-1 in bowl games at Boise
-- Boise State is 9-4 against Power 5 teams in bowl games
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
Boise won their only previous bowl game in Texas. BC is 1-1 in Texas-based bowls.

Scoreboard Watching
It is all about Clemson. It seems like every season is a search for conference validation, so that makes the Tigers the ACC's standard bearer. I don't dislike Dabo or Clemson, so I would probably be rooting for them anyway, but it helps BC's cause to be attached to the National Champion.

I hope to see...
Zach Allen have a big game. This will be his last as an Eagle and he deserves to go out with a bang. It seems like he will probably be a very high draft pick and he was part of numerous winning teams, but he doesn't have a true signature moment like some past BC greats. Why not have one against Boise?

BC is in trouble if...
There is defensive confusion. The Syracuse game was a mess. I can't remember that many defensive mistakes since Daz took over. If Boise creates the same confusion, this won't be close.

Overall
I don't feel great about this matchup. I didn't even like Addazio's body language addressing the media this week. I don't know if he doesn't like what he sees on tape or didn't like how the extension played out, but it doesn't scream confidence. I think we have more than enough talent to win, but we cannot get behind early. Begrudgingly, I will predict a BC win (because I always do), but this game won't be close. Whoever gets up early will run away with it.
Final Score: BC 31, Boise 14

Sloppy win at Depaul

The Basketball team won a tight game on the road with some good game management decisions. So that's good. But it was not a fun game to watch as the team was really sloppy on both ends and would have bean beaten by any team playing slightly better than Depaul did Saturday.

BC was forced to play catch up most of the game because the offense started so cold and disjointed in the first half. I don't know if they are encouraging aggressiveness or everyone has the green light, but there were lots of bad basketball shots. Guys shooting when we don't have numbers. Guys forcing bad shots. Guys not finding the open man. Guys not reacting off the rebound. I don't know if the players are sleep walking or just not getting coached up on the seemingly simple details. 

On D, it was also frustrating to watch. They used zone again -- which I am in favor of -- but it wasn't good for long stretches. Depaul slowed in the second half, but we need better rebounding if we are going to keep using zone.

This is BC's last resume win. I hope Depaul goes on to have a great season, to help BC's cause. But I also don't know if this team can play smart and hungry during ACC play.

A nice basketball moment

For those who missed this...here is Herren Jr getting a scholarship.

I could go all Scrooge here and call this a waste but it is not. Herren is contributing real minutes and is showing good upside. Is he an elite ACC player? No but he is certainly a scholarship player on this team. Merry Christmas Chris.

Signing Day thoughts

It is all hype and all projection, but even with the rollercoasters of the past week, it is clear this is Addazio's best BC recruiting class. Nearly every player had multiple P5 offers other than BC. We hit the traditional recruiting grounds and we restocked positions of need. 

Rivals ranked BC 57th. 247 ranked BC 55th. 

One thing that I found interesting is that Addazio believes the early signing period helps BC and keeps other schools from poaching more of his recruits.

By the unofficial count, it looks like BC is down to 82 scholarships. Maybe there will be some additional signings -- although there is not much else out there -- or some transfers into the program.

Freshman QB John Langan is leaving BC for Rutgers. The logjam at QB was going to have some repercussions, so his move makes sense. Best of luck to him.

Here is Addazio's press conference.

Two thoughts on the shifting recruiting class

The Early Signing Day is Wednesday. As it approaches, BC's well-regarded class continues to lose members. Florida OLine prospect Maurice Smith flipped to Florida State. Michigan LB prospect Marvin Ham has decided to go to Colorado. Predictably this has created frustration among BC fans that follow this stuff. Here are two statements related to this griping, followed by my explanation.

1. I don't really worry about decommits. They happen everywhere. Conversely, we always tend to flip a player to us. No one that has decommited from Addazio so far has proven to be a difference maker elsewhere. (Kwity Paye is the highest profile and has only earned "honorable mention" All Big Ten.)

2. Keeping Addazio to protect this class was stupid. It wasn't mentioned in the extension press release, but I do know that this recruiting class was a factor in keeping Addazio. That was extremely short-sighted. You don't keep a coach because of one batch of recruits. You keep a coach because of a body of work and if he is maximizing the program's potential.

In the end this recruiting class will be fine. Addazio's most redeeming quality is that he's proven to be a very good talent evaluator. He has upgraded the talent across the board and most of his recruits have exceeded their ratings coming into the program. If ratings hold and his past evaluation skills carryover, this will be his best class yet. My concern and fear is that his other pattern (of mismanaging games) will negate this increased talent and he will continue to underachieve while at BC.

Herren Jr leads the way against Fairfield

Chris Herren Jr had his best game to date as BC beat Fairfield Sunday. While the Herren game was a nice surprise, being in a tight game with Fairfield and needed one of your reserves was far from ideal. Bowman was really cold (4-17) and the bench was really thin with Chatman and Mitchell both sitting with injuries.

BC is off for a week and then takes on Depaul next weekend.

A&M wants their money

Considering it was one cancelled basketball game, this Texas A&M issue seems like it will linger around BC sports for a little while longer. According to a report out of Texas (and based on a freedom of information request), A&M wants their $100,000 cancellation fee for the BC game. Supposedly their side will decide on a course of action this week. 

I don't have any access to BC's contract, but I imagine that there is a cancellation fee on our side of the contract too. So if A&M decides to cancel their visit to Conte, BC is potentially inline to collect that money. 

In the end I imagine this will be settled between the Athletic Departments. I don't think much or any money will change hands. What's surprising is that A&M is so adamant about this. As I've pointed out many times, College Sports is a small world. Usually both sides would try to settle this behind the scenes and amicably. 

What people are saying about the Bowl matchup

Narrative drives everything in college football, so it should be as no surprise that in their short summaries, the major websites are saying the same things about BC and Boise.

ESPN: mentions losing streak, predict Boise State win

Yahoo: thinks Boise wins and might not be much of a game. 

Bleacher Report: predicts a Boise win and mentions BC flaming out down the stretch.

Basketball flat but still wins against Columbia

BC didn't look great and were without Chatman, but it didn't matter as they beat Columbia at Conte. The D -- which had looked so good during the win streak -- was a mess tonight. Lots of slow rotations and confusion. Bowman scored well but still turned the ball over too much. Tabbs had another strong game.

The team's next game is against Fairfield on Sunday.

BC and Addazio out of limbo, so now what?

When is an extension, not a real extension? When your own press release buries the news in the fourth paragraph on the announcement. The message from Jarmond is light on specifics and lacks any dollar signs (which is typical of BC). It only explains that Addazio's contract was extended for two years. The extension had to be done. BC was in an untenable position...of their own making. But why did they do it like this and what does the future hold?

Clearly BC is frustrated with Addazio. You don't start your message off with we wish we had won more if everything is wonderful. But following the losing streak and the rumors, BC had to say or do something. In College Football it becomes very hard to lock down quality recruits and a quality staff if there is much uncertainty. This public extension provides some relief to Addazio's recruits and anyone he is going to try to bring on as a new staffer. (But as the Coen news mentioned, most of the new hires will probably ask for and get a two-year deal.) That was the only reason for the extension. There are no other suitors out there trying to hire Addazio away from BC. He wasn't walking away either. This settles the public aspect. Behind the scenes is a little different.

You don't drag negotiations after six years, no suitors and a .500 record if you want to secure and pay your coach for the long term. You don't have to because you are negotiating against yourself. While there was incentive to help recruiting, there was no incentive to help the Steve Addazio retirement fund. I don't know any of the specific financials of the deal, but do know that this new commitment won't be a financial obstacle if BC decides to make a change next year.

This means that Addazio is coaching for his job. He's got the talent, the practice facility, a schedule he handpicked, his best recruiting class, a veteran QB and playmakers all over the roster. There are no excuses. And if he doesn't break his ceiling, he will be done.

Knowing this only makes me frustrated with how Martin Jarmond played this. As I said the Sunday after the Syracuse game: Addazio is either the right guy or not. We are not learning anything new in Year 7 that we don't already know in Year 6. He is who he is. While that had value at a certain point to BC and while he does deserve credit for building BC up after Spaz, at what point do we say we can be more? It is a risk, but I think it is a risk worth taking. Jarmond himself has even said in sports you are getting better or you are getting worse. Does he really feel we are getting better or are we stagnant?

I don't know how this will end. My gut tells me it will end with seven wins in 2019 and Addazio being fired. I hope I am wrong because that will mean we wasted a year of everyone's time.

Surprise, surprise, Texas A&M won't be coming to Boston next year

Texas A&M Basketball Coach Billy Kennedy announced that his team won't be travelling to Boston next year for the scheduled home and home. Basketball coaches usually have control over their schedules, so I could see why Kennedy thinks this, but we have no official word from Texas A&M. They are under contract, so the AD might have to weigh in on if the series is actually off.  If they do cancel, I hope our penalty matches their $100,000.

What's interesting is BC and Martin Jarmond are defending their position on social media. They care what is being said and how this is being perceived. I imagine no one wants to play this series now but saving face and money is the priority.

With all this nonsense you know this means the two teams will end up playing each other in the postseason somewhere...or we will end up against Texas A&M in a bowl game soon.

The Texas A&M issue was not BC's fault

Long story short, but I've worked in the airline space and in the charter airline space. There is a bit to unpack in BC-Texas A&M's cancellation, but this is not about BC screwing up or having an inferior charter partner.

1. BC's charter company is the same one as Texas A&M's and handles the vast majority of the ACC, SEC and Big Ten. People love to complain about BC's decisions and accuse BC of going cheap, but we are using the premier company for college sports. It is the company every major basketball program uses. This could have happened to Duke, Louisville, Kentucky, etc.

2. All Travel Managers (charter brokers) use sub contractors. The charter business is all about subcontracting. Once again, all college basketball teams deal with this. The company whose plane had the mechanical issue (Elite) is a reliable and big company. The second sub contractor used and mentioned in the BC announcement (Via) is not as big but still a good operator. If their pilot didn't want to fly in the weather or was worried about the necessary refuel in the bad weather across the country, then you don't fly.

3. Texas A&M was inflexible on the reschedule. Think of how often this is done (we did it with Wake Forest football this year). We've done it outside the conference too. A&M would not play the game later on Saturday nor any time on Sunday or even Monday.

This is unfortunate since I we could have used a win. My guess is with the finger pointing, this future series won't happen.

Revisiting our last game against Boise State

This was fun to watch again (especially since BC held on to win). Lots of familiar names. The most impressive thing in retrospect was the offensive line play. Truly controlled the whole game.

What we can infer from the Coen news

Liam Coen is not going to be BC's new offensive coordinator. This comes a day after news that he would. But like my speculation from last weekend, Coen made sense. If this is the type of guy who Addazio is talking to and making offers to, we can probably infer a few more things about his eventual hire.

1. He is going to be QB guy. Addazio basically said as much. Coen played QB at UMass.
2. Addazio is still leaning into his network. This is natural although I always feel like it is a little limiting. Coen played QB for Don Brown.
3. It looks like he is going to go young. Instead of going with a veteran play caller, he made an offer to Coen, someone who has never called a play at an FBS level. Whether he wants young for the recruiting energy, the opportunity to hire the next big thing, or because the guy would defer to him, Addazio clearly wasn't going the old timer path.
4. He has a list and is looking to move. I wondered if he would wait until after the bowl game to make a move. That's when lots of guys are free and many staff changes are made. Addazio met with a guy during the ongoing NFL season and was ready to make a move. I don't know his urgency. Maybe he wants the new OC to lockdown recruits.

I don't know if Coen's NFL connection meant much. Addazio publicly mentioned the Rams last week. Maybe an NFL pedigree helps with recruiting. If you are looking for innovation, I don't think the NFL is a must. If anything, the best NFL teams are stealing from college football offenses.

Basketball falls to Providence in OT

That's what a rivalry game should be like. The only problem was BC lost. The refs didn't help the cause, but some defensive lapses combined with Providence making a clutch shot, forced OT. In OT, BC never got control and was constantly trying to chip away at the Friars' lead. They never did catch them.

Chatman had a big night. Bowman and Tabbs put up points but not by shooting well. Pop didn't play. If any of those guys are at 100%, BC wins the game with ease.

That would have been a nice non-conference win. Instead it is just another frustrating loss.

Cbeckout these new basketball uniforms

I guess I should have been an Oregon fan, because I keep finding myself getting excited about uniforms. Look at what basketball is going to wear against Providence Tuesday.

New threads for tomorrow night ...🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/R9Gej3RgBX

— Boston College Men's Basketball (@BCMBB) December 3, 2018

These look cool, are not over the top and relate to BC's past. What's not to like? I want a classic and consistent look for all our sports, but appreciate that the occasional special uniform gets players and fans excited.

BC headed to Dallas for bowl game with Boise State

If you had asked me about BC's bowl destination Sunday morning, I don't think I ever would have selected the Servpro Bowl in Dallas vs Boise State. Yet here we are, getting ready to play the Broncos on December 26 in the old Cotton Bowl. All things considered, this was the best outcome of all the undesirable bowls that were in the mix for BC.

First the bad. This is a made for TV game on December 26. There is no history. There will be little fan support. Barring some viral moment, no one beyond BC and Boise State fans will remember it.

The good? It is more BC Football against a legitimate opponent in a real city. Detroit and Shreveport were on the table and real options. This game feels like the Rose Bowl when you consider the alternative of going to Shreveport again. 

Boise State opened as a 2.5 point favorite. I will have more on the matchup in the weeks ahead. I will also post on the ACC's politics and BC's role. 

Now let's win this thing. Addazio keeps claiming progress. Time for him to show it. 

Report: Addazio coming back

According to Football Scoop, which specializes in coaching news and is pretty well sourced, Addazio is coming back for 2019 season. Based on that report and Jarmond's meetings in New York City, it doesn't appear that BC will be making any announcement or extending Addazio beyond his current deal. I don't love this strategy, but I am not the AD. I will have more on the different implications of the non-extension, but for now let's hope it doesn't hurt Early Signing Day.

Addazio's update

Addazio gave a standard, post-season, pre-bowl media update Friday. Most of it is on guys getting healthy and using the bowl game practice. Towards the end he gets around to Loeffler's departure and the future of the offense. Here are some takeaways:

1. He reminded everyone that it is HIS offense. He did this when Day left and seemingly goes back to that theme anytime someone questions credit or ownership of the offense. He explained that it is collaborative, but that he sets the tone and philosophy.

2. He wants a QB/passing game guy. That seems pretty standard. Loeffler had QB responsibilities. It would make sense that his replacement does too.

3. He looks to the Rams as a model...and says BC has already been doing that. Copying the Rams is admirable. They're one of the most dynamic teams in any level of football. But the overlaps are not obvious. Yes, both teams use big, bruising backs as a centerpiece and both play uptempo. But The Rams passing game is much more aggressive with downfield throws.

If he is thinking Rams, there are plenty of names on the Rams staff who might be good fits as OC, including:
-- Shane Waldron. Numerous ties to the Boston area. Coached with UMass, Patriots and Notre Dame and was even a high school coach at BB&N.
-- Liam Coen. Former UMass QB. Coached all over New England FCS schools.
-- Jedd Fisch. No obvious ties to Addazio but has been an OC at the college and NFL level many, many times.
-- Zac Taylor. No obvious ties to Addazio, but has been involved in offense at the college and NFL level.

4. Loeffler will be part of bowl prep. Addazio didn't say Loeffler will be calling plays, but I think it is implied. Typically college coaches finish out their old season while prepping for their new job.

Basketball keeps rolling

Beating Sacred Heart is not a big deal in the whole scheme of things basketball wise. But getting a huge game from Wynston Tabbs is. The freshman led BC in scoring as the team won its fourth straight game. 

BC had a comfortable lead in the first half sparked by good D. The second half was a bit more sloppy. In the end, they mostly held the lead. Pop had another good night. Bowman's shooting remains a bit cold, but it is nice to see others fill the void when needed. 

Next up: the biggest test of the young season...a game against Providence. 

Loeffler to Bowling Green, BC getting new OC

Congrats to Scot Loeffler. He's leaving BC to become Bowling Green's new Head Coach. It is a compliment to him, BC and Addazio, that another FBS school hired him away from us based in part on what he accomplished at BC. But as a fan and critic of BC, I am not upset or really worried about his departure. While a seemingly nice guy and good fit around the team and campus, Loeffler is below average Offensive Coordinator.

This season BC had an offensive S&P+ of 95th in College Football. Last year it was 101st. In 2016, Loeffler's first calling plays at BC, it was 124th. Some of this is talent. Some is Addazio's philosophy and game approach. But much of it is Loeffler. He was OC and it was his job to prepare the players, plan the schemes and adjust during the games.

As a frame of reference, BC's S&P+ under Addazio and prior to Loeffler:
2015 (Todd Fitch as OC): 125th
2014 (Ryan Day as OC): 50th
2013 (Ryan Day as OC): 30th

This is an opportunity for Addazio to boost the offense and help this team get better. I do believe there is offensive talent. Hence why BC can be so explosive. However, I don't think the coaching or play calling is great and that explains why they can be so explosive one play and inept the next.

If Addazio follows any pattern, it will be that he hires someone from his current coaching network. I have no real insight, but you could probably throw names out there like Mike Sanford Jr., Mark Whipple, Kevin Rogers, etc. I would be surprised if he promotes from within, but Brian White has been an Offensive Coordinator before.

Ultimately this is an opportunity. BC has playmakers, we just need someone who can get the most out of the talent and who can work with Addazio.

The longer we wait the less likely there is real news

With multiple national writers claiming Addazio was on the hotseat, many thought there would be news Sunday. Nothing happened, even as most other programs either fired or extended their respective coaches. More rumors followed and no news Monday. Blauds put up a piece claiming Addazio was offered a one year extension for less money. No one else has reported that either. Meanwhile Addazio is on the road visibly recruiting and the local press is talking basketball and bowl games with no mention of looming coaching news.

I don't have any real news, so like most of you, I am left to speculate. I don't think the one-year, low-ball extension story makes sense as a news report or as a strategy. Addazio wouldn't leak that to Blauds and I don't think Jarmond would either. That means if it is sourced -- it is heavy on speculation from someone removed from the actual discussion. I think if they were going to fire Addazio they would have done it already. 1. to lock in a new coach before the early signing day in December and 2. to avoid putting Addazio and his staff on the road locking in kids to a staff that won't coach them. The recruits get screwed during any transition but BC tries to do what's right. Putting a staff out there only to fire them when they get back to Boston isn't right.

I do believe there is some sort of impasse about the extension. Whether it is money or time or the internal politics, for some reason it hasn't been presented to the public.

We will start to get more info when Jarmond hits the road to talk to donors this week. I don't expect him to provide much insight or specifics, but the conversations will at least set an impression of where he, BC and Addazio stand.

Addazio vs BC's actual history

Addazio referenced winning historically at BC and mentioned 6.5 wins per year since 1980. That's a misleading stat since the college football season has expanded gradually from 11 games, to 11 plus regular bowls, to 12 plus regular bowls. In my opinion, it is probably better to measure Addazio's body of work using winning percentage. Right now he sits at .500. And to me that feels like the sort of coach he is. But I feel like BC can be more and that history is not told through 6.5 wins per year, but through what a variety of coaches have done at the school under varied circumstances. Take a look:

Winning Percentage
Boston College All-Time: .560

Boston College Since DIA-DIAA Split: .538

Boston College Since joining a conference: .557

Boston College Since joining ACC: .547

Addazio: .500

Winning Percentage by Coach
Frank Leahy: 909
Jeff Jagodzinski: .714
Joseph Yukica: .648
Gilmour Dobie: .639
Tom O'Brien: .625
Frank Cavanaugh: .625
Mike Holovak: .623
Tom Coughlin: .614
Jim Miller: .586
Denny Myers: .561
Jack Bicknell: .517
Steve Addazio: .500
Moody Sarno: .500
Dan Henning: .458
Frank Spaziani: .431
Ernest Hefferle: .375
Ed Chlebek: .364

Conference Winning Percentage
Jagodzinski (ACC): .687

O'Brien (ACC): .625

Coughlin (Big East): .559

O'Brien (total): .521

O'Brien (Big East): .490
Henning (Big East): 452
Spaziani (ACC): .406
Addazio (ACC): .375

Winning Seasons
Yukica: 9
O'Brien: 8
Holovak: 7
Addazio: 5
Bicknell: 4

Miller: 4

Spaziani:2
Jagodzinski: 2
Coughlin: 2
Henning: 1

Slide continues as Syracuse crushes BC

If you want to talk positives, you could at least say the team lost that game together. Special Teams made mistakes, the Offense looked sloppy and the D put up their worst performance of the season. There will be plenty to talk about in the coming days and plenty of fingers to point, but the natural target is Addazio. BC will still go bowling, but it feels like the guy can't get BC to that next level and will be 7-6 for eternity.

Thanks to those who said "hello." It wasn't a great day to be at Alumni, but I appreciate the continued support.

In-game comments post: Syracuse

Senior Day and the final game of the regular season. Let's end on a high note.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Friday picks

Enjoy your family and the games.

Picks in bold

Baylor+5 at Texas Tech

Michigan-5 at Ohio State

Florida-7 at Florida State

Purdue-4 at Indiana

Pitt+4.5 at Miami

Arizona State-1.5 at Arizona

SMU-2.5 at Tulsa

Tennessee+3.5 at Vanderbilt

LSU+3.5 at Texas A&M

Utah State+3 at Boise State

Last week I was 5-5 once again. I am 62-57-3 on the season.

BC-Syracuse preview

I know this is not unique to BC Football, but in college football every game now feels like a referendum on the state of the program. This game shouldn't determine our whole view of Addazio, but winning is critical. Beyond the 7-win ceiling, it would also stop the bleeding and give the team a little momentum going into the bowl game. I don't even want to think about what losing means.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Babers' name is getting floated for job openings. If he leaves it will be interesting to see where Syracuse looks. Babers was an unconventional hire -- no regional or school ties -- and seems to have worked. Maybe it  would encourage BC to be unconventional during our next major search.

Three Simple Keys
1.  Get points off of turnovers. I trust our DBs to force some INTs, but BC can't come away from those possessions without points.
2. Punish any nine-man boxes. This has been one of the most frustrating things of the losses. We've gotten a few big plays when teams load the box, but too often we either fail to get the pass off or run right into the crowd. Brown and Loeffler need to be smart and the O needs to execute
3. If Devitto plays, blitz like crazy. Let him show that he can handle the pressure in his face.

Gambling Notes
-- Syracuse leads the series 31-20
-- Addazio is 2-3 vs the Orange
-- Addazio is 4-1 on Senior Day
The current line is BC-7

Factoid
This is the seventh time BC has ended its regular season with a game against Syracuse.

Scoreboard Watching
Pay attention to all the middle of the pack ACC teams and borderline bowl teams like Wake, FSU, Duke, Miami, and VT. How all do will help determine our bowl slots.

I hope to see...
Bailey, Glines and Levy get touches in the run game. Regardless of health, Dillon shouldn't be running it 30+ times in a game.

BC is in trouble if...
If Brown struggles early. We missed lots of scoring opportunities. Syracuse is coming off a tough loss too. We need to put them away early.

Overall
In general, I don't love the Syracuse matchup. I don't like their explosiveness vs our inconsistency. But I think our D is good enough and they are beaten down enough that BC should be okay keeping it on the ground and winning by more than a touchdown.
Final Score: BC 31, Syracuse 21

Basketball wins Fort Myers Tip-off

I don't know if you want to call anything a bounce back, but BC slightly redeemed themselves after last week's terrible loss to IUPUI by defeating Loyola-Chicago to win the Fort Myers Tip-off. As holiday tournaments go, this isn't the Maui Invitational, but it did involve BC winning multiple games in a neutral site against some solid mid-majors. Baby steps, I guess.

The good thing about this game is that they played well with Bowman on the bench for most of the first half. Loyola did not shoot well, but some of it was due to BC's defense. Chatman filled the void and played much better than he did against Wyoming.

Do we know what to expect from this team yet? No. But we will have more answers next week against Minnesota. 

Dungey's status still up in the air

According to Syracuse media, Orange QB Eric Dungey is still questionable for Saturday. Like BC's situation last week with Anthony Brown, it doesn't make sense for Dino Babers to tip his hand on if Dungey will play. BC is still a touchdown favorite.

Checking in on the coaching class of 2013

With Colorado making a change, the list of coaches hired in the 2013 cycle still with their team is that much smaller. Here is the latest.

Left for a new job
Gary Andersen, Wisconsin -- left for Oregon State
P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan -- left for Minnesota

Bryan Harsin, Arkansas State -- left for Boise State

Todd Monken, Southern Miss -- left for assistant job with Tampa Bay
Bobby Petrino, Western Kentucky -- left for Louisville
Matt Rhule, Temple -- left for Baylor

Willie Taggart, South Florida -- left for Oregon

Hanging in there
Steve Addazio, Boston College
Rod Carey, Northern Illinois
Dave Doeren, NC State
Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech
Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Matt Wells, Utah State

Fired
Bret Bielema, Arkansas -- fired in 2017
Ron Caragher, San Jose State -- fired in 2016

Sonny Dykes, California -- fired in 2016

Darrell Hazell, Purdue -- fired in 2016

Paul Haynes, Kent State -- fired in 2017

Mark Helfrich, Oregon -- fired in 2016

Butch Jones, Tennessee -- fired in 2017

Sean Kugler, UTEP -- fired in 2017

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado -- fired in 2018

Trent Miles, Georgia State -- fired in 2016
Brian Polian, Nevada -- fired in 2016

Scott Shafer, Syracuse -- fired in 2015

Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati -- resigned/fired in 2016

Ron Turner, FIU -- fired in 2016

I don't know what conclusions you want to draw. I look at Addazio's continued employment as affirmation that BC is a good job, where you can win, and the fans and administration have patience.

Bowman goes off in BC win

BC bounced back after last week's disaster, with a win over Wyoming. BC will now face Loyola in the tourney finals. But none of it was easy. Bowman blew the game open in the first half and then had to take over again as BC let the Cowboys back in the game. Bowman finished with 38.

Reyes also had a career day since he was our only healthy big. But even he fouled out. Mitchell was okay, but the rest of the roster was wanting. Chatman was ice cold. The young guys made lots of mistakes and forced lots of bad shots.

Bowman is not going to be able to score 38 a night. Other guys need to step up, starting Wednesday.

Addazio hasn't learned

Bucking conventional wisdom in sports takes time, even for those on the inside who stand to benefit the most. (Just look at baseball's reaction to the Moneyball movement.) Yet you would think that once you've had first-hand experience doing something you would learn and adapt. Addazio for some reason isn't learning. He's been burned multiple times by allowing an opponent to march down the field to win the game. Knowing how often it has happened and can happen, he should place a priority on not giving up the ball in a close game. Instead, he put a value on giving the opponent extra yardage. But his own time as a head coach has shown how little extra yardage means. Take a look:

2013 vs Syracuse. Cuse drives 75 yards with less than 2:08 to win the game.

2014 vs Colorado State. Rams drive 90 yards with 4:00 left to win the game

2014 vs Florida State. Noles drive 66 yards with 4:34 left to win the game with a FG

2014 vs Penn State. PSU drives 76 yards with 1:55 left to force OT (which they would win)

2015 vs Syracuse. Orange drive 69 yards with 2:42 left to kick winning FG. 

2016 vs Georgia Tech.  Jackets drive 59 yards with 3:33 left to win the game.

Basically, once he gives up the ball, the D will either stop them or they won't. The difference in the extra 20 yards is negligible. Look at the Pro Football Reference stat. 

(1/2) According to Pro Football Reference, on the FSU 40 with 2:52 to go, fourth-and-one, @BCFootball had a 87.21% chance to win the game.

How win probability changes based on the fourth down result:

CONVERT: 96.61%

FAIL: 73.56%

PUNT: 80.94%

— Ben Thomas (@ben_heights) November 18, 2018

The difference between punting and getting stuffed on 4th down is minor. Convert at all costs and the game is yours. Look at the win probability graph. It was creeping towards BC and once they gave the ball back it dipped. The lesson Addazio should take from this is not give it back.



But he hasn't learned and there doesn't seem to be anyone around to enlighten him so I assume we will see this same mistake again.

BC can't put FSU away and loses heartbreaker

I know Steve Addazio knows more about football than I do. There are nuances that I am probably oblivious to and I know the time commitment of his job is unfathomable. He is able to lead a staff and roster of more than 100 people. He is also able to find and recruit teenagers. But I think he, like many coaches, can get so caught up in the flow of the game or his cognitive biases (whether it is play calling, clock, player usage, etc.) that he limits what his talented roster can do. If you play too conservatively and play to keep it close, you are going to invite the other team to steal a game. We saw it with TOB and Spaz. And it has happened to Addazio often. Tonight's loss to FSU might be the most frustrating. 

Brown didn't play well and I put much of that on the staff. If he wasn't 100%, then maybe you go with Perry. Or you put a gameplan around Brown that would help his return. Even the D, which had some really good moments, also didn't adjust enough. 

7-6 is looming. I pray that Addazio can avoid it. I want to be more than that. I think he can still do something more, but I know he will never put together that truly special season. 

In-game comments post: Florida State

Eight wins. That's what it is about today. Let's bounce back and let's take the next step.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

I am going really heavy on the road teams. Good luck to all.

Picks in bold

Northwestern+2.5 at Minnesota

Michigan State+1 at Nebraska

TCU-1 at Baylor

Pitt-6 at Wake Forest

Mizzou-6.5 at Tennessee

USC-2.5 at UCLA

West Virginia-6.5 at Oklahoma State

Virginia+5 at Georgia Tech

Air Force+2.5 at Wyoming

Ole Miss+3 at Vanderbilt

Last week I was 5-5 again. I am 57-52-3 on the season.

BC-Florida State preview

Regardless of how we did last week or who we played this week, everything was going to feel like a comedown after Gameday and Clemson. We've seen it before with even more talented and consistent BC teams. That means it is up to Addazio to push the right buttons and make sure that they build off of last week and not let the season slip away.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Now that we are eliminated from the Division title, I don't know how Addazio or BC fans will define a successful season. Is it about ending the season ranked? Is it about winning a bowl game? I don't know. Personally, I want to see BC win the last two games and then win the bowl game. This is Year 6. We need more than just ho-hum finish.

Three Simple Keys
1. Sack Francois five times or more. FSU's OLine might be the worst in the conference. There is no reason we shouldn't bring a lot of pressure.
2. Use plenty of zone reads. Regardless of the BC QB, this is a simple play that should move the chains and open up other things.
3. Get explosive plays. I don't trust either QB to methodically work the ball down the field. We need someone -- maybe Smith or Dillon -- to break some big plays.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio 0-2 at Doak
-- Addazio is 16-15 after a loss
-- Taggart is 2-19 vs ranked teams
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
This is the first time since 2014 that we've played Florida State on a Saturday.

Scoreboard Watching
The most relevant game for BC fans is the Notre Dame-Syracuse matchup. I don't know what to expect out of Syracuse next week. They haven't been great on the road this year and the weather will be an issue.

I hope to see...
Big plays from our WRs. We are targeting the TEs and RBs more in the passing game. I would like to see some more strikes to our WRs, who I believe have upside and can make plays against this FSU team.

BC is in trouble if...
Brown doesn't play. I know Perry is prepared. I know everyone believes in him. I know that he had flashes last Saturday. I just fear that if he plays Addazio will be so conservative it will be impossible for BC to win.

Overall
FSU is really bad. Even if we struggle on offense, their Offense is worse and their D is not great. I think we grind them down with the run game and pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, FSU 13

Basketball gets early wake up call from IUPUI

There is no beating around the bush, BC had a horrible home loss Wednesday night to IUPUI. This is not uncommon for BC basketball over the last ten years and unfortunately it is all too common during the Jim Christian era. Yes we lost a lottery pick, but there is enough incoming and remaining talent that this shouldn't happen.

This wasn't some flukey game where we a mid-major got lucky with a bunch of 3s. This was just a disjointed BC team that didn't shoot particularly well, missed ten foul shots, didn't play smart D and turned the ball over.

I know it is early and the staff is working in the young players, but does this team look as talented as it is rated? Or as talented as it should be at this point in Christian's tenure?

I know Martin Jarmond has been able to spearhead a lot of fun initiatives as AD, but lurking near is a coaching change. If Christian can't get more out of his team, then the change will come soon.

Reading into the preview

This is the ACC Network's preview of the BC-Florida State game. It has the usual stuff but what really got my attention was how down Willie Taggart seemed in the video. I know it is just a press conference, but I hope his lack of energy is an indicator for how his team is feeling right now.

BC optimistic about Brown

After speculation regarding his spleen and lung circled over the weekend, BC and Addazio somewhat cleared the air on the status of Anthony Brown. The Coach said "Anthony Brown had an abdominal injury. He is day-to-day, but is doing well.”

BC won't elaborate on the specifics of the injury. We know Brown was hospitalized and multiple Clemson reports said it was related to the spleen. Addazio expects Brown to practice Wednesday and there doesn't seem any reason why he won't play against Florida State. Addazio talked up Perry as well during his press conference and seems confident with either option. I am far less worried than I was 24 hours ago. I am going to assume that Brown will play and will have full mobility.

As for why Clemson reports would be more detailed and accurate...it is pretty typical. If you remember years ago, Clemson news sources had accurate information about Matt Ryan being in a walking boot while the Boston media was silent. I think our media tends to defer to BC on matters like this, especially when related to player health. How would a Clemson radio show host have the info? From their coaches or medical people who were at the game. All things considered, it is a tight network and they all talk.

BC to provide update on Anthony Brown on Monday

Anthony Brown's injury was serious enough to be taken to the hospital -- which Addazio confirmed in his postgame -- yet not obvious from the replay. Addazio termed the injury as "internal." This has led to lots of rumor and speculation on message boards and twitter among BC fans and Clemson fans. I reached out to BC for an official status update and was told one would come Monday.

Beyond Brown's personal health, the news is critical for the Florida State game and the remainder of the season. BC will go from a favorite in the last two game to a potential underdog. Let's hope the news is good and Brown is in for a speedy recovery.

Great day turns to frustrating night

It is already starting. If you read social media or message boards, some BC fans are vocally frustrated with BC coming up short in a big game again and think Addazio didn't do enough or play for the win. The Offense was frustrating to watch, but I don't know if things would have been drastically different with Anthony Brown. Clemson's DLine was that disruptive. Regardless of where you are on the QB debate, everyone has to acknowledge a great performance by the BC defense. They contained the hottest offense in college football and made plenty of big plays. The Special Teams also deserves credit for an early spark. 

We are not ready to challenge Clemson yet. That is clear. But if Addazio is a very good coach, he will still finish strong and figure out how to score potentially without Brown and with Dillon at less than 100%. 

There is a lot of good takeaways from Gameday and certain players and as always, lots of questions. 

In-game comments post: Clemson

It is all been pointing to this. Not much else to say. Let's do it!

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

I picked these games, but the only one I'm really focused on is happening in Alumni.


Picks in bold

Ohio State-3.5 at Michigan State

Maryland+1 at Indiana

Troy-1 at Georgia Southern

Kentucky-5 at Tennessee

Virginia Tech+3 at Pitt

Washington State-6 at Colorado

Oregon+3.5 at Utah

Temple+4.5 at Houston

Miami+2.5 at Georgia Tech

Texas-1.5 at Texas Tech

Last week I was 5-5. I am 52-47-3 on the season.

BC-Clemson preview

When you are involved in a long-term goal, there are many obstacles and setbacks along the way. But overcoming and enduring those issues are mentally part of the process. You're prepared for problems and prepared to pick up pieces. One thing that is hard to prepare is when you get to "the moment." The point where the past meets the present and it is all supposed to happen. That's the tough part. That is the real unknown. In football it is about how the staff and 90 something kids handle it. This is the time. This is why they all do what they do. Now can the deliver?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
All the hype has led to a rehashing of the "people in Boston don't care about BC sports" narrative again. This is wrong. Media coverage doesn't equal interest or "care." Just because sports radio is not talking about BC or we don't get much traditional print coverage doesn't mean anything. BC will have 45,000 people on hand to see this game. Only the Patriots will draw more at one time this month. More people will watch this game (and most of our games) than watch the Bruins or Celtics regular season games. If BC were to somehow make a playoff run, it would be a bigger TV draw than anything the Bruins or Celtics do all year and only really trail the Patriots and Red Sox playoffs. There is passionate interest and plenty of casual interest. Vocal BC fans should stop worrying about the media interest and just enjoy the moment.

Three Simple Keys
1. Aggressive game management. When faced with a Clemson powerhouse, we've seen Addazio go very, very conservatively. Who can forget all the times he punted at Death Valley when he had the ball in Clemson territory? He needs to go for it more often and unleash his big Special Teams moments to help build confidence and momentum.
2. Get to Lawrence. We can't let him sit back and throw. The Clemson WRs are too good and will win those one on one matchups (like NC State did). We need to bring extra pressure and at least have the pocket collapsing.
3. A perfect game from the Oline. This won't happen if there are no holes for Dillon and/or his backups. This won't happen if Brown is rushed or has no throwing lanes. We need to Oline to dominate like the best BC lines have done in the past.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 0-5 vs Clemson
-- Addazio is 1-9 vs teams ranked in the Top 10
-- Swinney is 34-17 on the road
The current line is BC+20

Factoid
This is the latest into the season that Clemson has travelled to Alumni for an ACC game and only the second time they've played in Alumni in November.

Scoreboard Watching
Assuming we take care of business, the most important game for our future is Virginia Tech-Pitt. The winner of that is in the driver seat for the Coastal and could be a critical future opponent.

I hope to see...
Storming the field.

BC is in trouble if...
Brown completes less than 50% of his passes. We don't need him to be great, but we can't have him hurt us. He needs to hit the easy stuff, keep them honest with his legs and maybe make two true deep throws.

Overall
I am probably fooling myself, but I think things are lining up for a big night for BC. I think we get up early and Clemson struggles to adjust to the cold or pressure or whatever gets them off schedule. We get a little conservative in the second half as Clemson comes back, but hold on in the end.
Final Score: BC 28, Clemson 24

Perception matters and Jarmond understands

This week is a big deal, but it beyond football, it is an opportunity for BC to shine. The one person who seems to really understand that is Martin Jarmond.

While an AD hires and fires coaches, the reality of the job is that the AD's impact on the field of play is very limited. However, the experience of the fans, media and players outside of the game is all under the Athletic Department's control. Jarmond never provided specifics about what he was going to change at BC, but slowly through big and little things, he is showing he is committed to improvements (alcohol sales, raising money for facilities, better food service, social media interactions, numerous road trips, etc). GameDay will be a culmination of all he's done in his short tenure.

GameDay coming to BC is mostly about football and timing, but it is also due to the work of the Athletic Department to court ESPN and sell a story. But this is also a TV show and Jarmond knows that. He got Herbie to send a message to BC fans about showing up for the show Saturday morning.

JUST IN: Special message from @KirkHerbstreit on the location of the set for @CollegeGameDay Saturday at BC!

Also check out the release for IMPORTANT details regarding parking and everyone's favorite topic, tailgating!https://t.co/qSmLaCebt7#WeAreBC pic.twitter.com/3qgZiUPET8

— BC Football (@BCFootball) November 6, 2018

He also leveraged the moment to extend tailgating hours in the hopes of driving people to their sits at kickoff. Alumni needs to be full when the lights come on at 8 pm. ESPN/ABC want the game to feel big and a packed house does that.

🗣 We heard you...4 hrs... pic.twitter.com/4rpelgIvPd

— Martin Jarmond (@MartinJarmond) November 7, 2018

Even if the game doesn't live up to the hype, Jarmond needs the BC fans and the BC experience to shine through. It will keep two importantconstituenciess (media and donors) happy.  Being loud, active and on time will increase the chances of BC hosting again and ESPN coming away happy.

How does Addazio do as a big underdog

The spread for the BC-Clemson game opened at BC+17.5 and seems to have moved to +18. While big, the point spread is a bit encouraging. It was worse against Clemson just last year. Here are all the times Addazio was a big underdog while at BC and the final results.

2017. +34 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 34, BC 7

2016. +25 vs Louisville.
Final Score: Louisville 52, BC 7

2013. +24 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 24, BC 14

2013. +23 vs Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 48, BC 34

2017. +21 at Louisville.
Final Score: BC 45, Louisville 42

2016. +20 at Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 45, BC 7

2014. +17 vs USC.
Final Score: BC 37, USC 31

2014. +17 at Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 20, BC 17

2015. +17 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 34, BC 17

2016. +17 vs Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 56, BC 10

2017. +16 vs Virginia Tech.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 21, BC 10

2016. +15 at NC State.
Final Score: BC 21, NC State 14

2016. +15 vs Notre Dame.
Final Score: Notre Dame 19, BC 16

As a two TD or more underdog, Addazio holds his own. Against the spread in these games he is 9-3-1. In true W-L, he is 3-10, which isn't bad for a big underdog.

The biggest games at Alumni since expansion

BC has hosted Gameday before and had plenty of road tests. But it has been less common for these big matchups to be home at Alumni Stadium. I decided to look back at the critical home games since Alumni expanded in 1994. The larger venue, the expansion of the Notre Dame series and our transition from independent football to conference allowed more big games to come to Chestnut Hill. As you will see, my list is not always about the ranked team. Sometimes the big games were when our fans were engaged and ready for something special. I also based these on the feeling prior to the game and not the outcome. Here's my Top Ten list.

1. No. 8 Notre Dame, 1994
BC wasn't ranked at the time and the enthusiasm for Dan Henning was limited, but the fanbase was still pumped for Notre Dame's first trip to Alumni. The upset of Notre Dame from the year before was fresh, so people were also looking to continue the celebration and feel of that moment. BC went on to thrash the Irish again. It was probably the best moment of the Henning era.

2. No 2. Clemson, 2018
This weekend is setting up to be a huge moment in BC Football. Although we've had success under Addazio, it could be argued that BC Football hasn't mattered for a decade. That changes if we win this game and win the Division.

3. No. 1 Miami, 2001
There are plenty of parallels between this game and this week's Clemson game. Miami was in the middle of an incredible run and had arguably the most talented team in college football history. For added drama, BC's best playmaker William Green was suspended for this game. BC executed the perfect bend but don't break gameplan and nearly pulled off the upset, until Ed Reed saved the 'Canes' season.

4. Syracuse, 2004
This was supposed to be a formality. It was the final home game of the season against a lame duck Orange team. It was supposed to be wrap up BC's first Big East title and first major bowl since Flutie. It didn't end well.

5. No. 8 Florida State, 2005
This was the first time BC hosted Gameday. One could argue that hosting Gameday was an even bigger deal then (I have an upcoming post on the diminishing profile of Gameday). It was also our first ACC game and the first time Florida State and Bobby Bowden visited Alumni. Bowden was a legend and Florida State was an annual contender. We joined the ACC for this sort of moment.

6. Maryland, 2008
Many of our biggest games under Jags were on the road, but the rollercoaster 2008 season culminated with a home game against Maryland. Win and BC wins the division. They pulled it off in a night game at Alumni and the place was rocking from the opening kick.

7. No. 4 Virginia Tech, 2000
Michael Vick and the Hokies were coming off a Championship game appearance and were a must see team. This was a national game on CBS when CBS still had a Big East deal. Vick would deliver one of the best performances I've seen by a visiting player.

8. No. 8 USC, 2014
Anytime a traditional power comes to Alumni, it is a big deal. The Trojans were supposed to be "back" and ready to reclaim their status as an elite team. At this point Addazio was just trying to prove that his early success was not a fluke.

9. No. 12 Clemson, 2006
While Florida State's first visit was a bigger deal historically, Clemson fans helped this one feel big. There was orange all around Boston and in Alumni. The teams went to OT for the second year in a row and for the second year in a row the good guys won.

10. No. 11 Michigan, 1995
Night games used to be much rarer in College Football and around BC. When Michigan came to town, it was a huge deal and also on a primetime ESPN game.

Honorable Mention: Notre Dame 2003, No. 22 Virginia Tech 2006, Notre Dame 2008, No. 8 Florida State 2013

Levy sparks comeback at Lane

I always felt recruiting and talent accumulation was going to be Addazio's biggest strength. It paid off today as one of his backups -- Travis Levy -- made some huge runs to seal a critical win against Virginia Tech. With the win, BC now hosts Clemson for control of the division.

There were plenty of rocky moments in the first half, but the coaching staff and team deserve credit for rallying.

Now bring on Gameday!

In-game comments post: Virginia Tech

Lane Stadium has been the end of many BC hot streaks. But on occasion, we've pulled off a big win that propels us through the rest of the season. What will it be today?

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Friday picks

I went heavy on the away teams again. Hope things keep rolling.

Picks in bold

Texas A&M+3.5 at Auburn

Air Force+6.5 at Army

South Carolina-1 at Ole Miss

Michigan State-2.5 at Maryland

Georgia Tech-5 at North Carolina

Marshall-2.5 at Southern Miss

UTEP+1 at Rice

West Virginia+2 at Texas

Mizzou+6 at Florida

FAU+2.5 at FIU

Last week I was 6-2-2. I am 47-42-3 on the season.

BC-Virginia Tech preview

I wasn't trying to jinx BC with my "what if" talk. I actually believe that things are lining up well for the BC home stretch. But the key is to execute on these winnable games. If BC really wants a special season, it would start by taking care of business Saturday.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
I haven't written much about Maryland's inept and tone deaf decision path, but I am glad they decided to fire Durkin. A program can rationalize all sorts of behaviour and culture from a college football coach who wins. But there is no reason to take on public criticism, fan revolt and recruiting challenges for loser like Durkin.

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. Last week Addazio had trick plays ready to go against Miami and it set the tone. This week BC needs to keep it simple and run straight at them until the Hokies can prove they can stop a power run game.
2. Don't give up huge Special Teams plays. Beamer is gone, but the "Beamer Ball" legacy remains. BC has been wildly inconsistent on Special Teams. It needs to be clean this weekend.
3. No dropped passes. Brown's passes can be a problem, but his teammates are not always bailing him out. This week we need great effort and hands from the TEs and WRs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 4-7 all time at Lane Stadium
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 18-8
-- Addazio is 2-3 vs the Hokies

The current line is BC-2

Factoid
Spaz is the only BC coach who played Virginia Tech, yet did not have a win at Lane Stadium.

Scoreboard Watching
It is all about Clemson now. We need them to be No. 2 going into our game and to do that, they need to beat Louisville this week.

I hope to see...
Dillon at 100%. I think we can win with the sort of effort he gave last week, but if he is healthy, this game won't even be close.

BC is in trouble if...
If it comes down to field goals. Addazio needs to keep that in mind and stay aggressive in four-down territory. We need touchdowns, not long field goal attempts.

Overall
We are winning this thing. Addazio has been using all sorts of different types of running plays this year to varying degrees of success. This is the game where it pays off. BC emulates Georgia Tech's strategy and runs over the Hokies.
Final Score: BC 35, Virginia Tech 20

Why you can't get too concerned with the national media's perception of BC

As much as I loved all the positive coverage that came out of the win over Miami, the reality is that BC has an established media narrative that will never change unless we win a national championship. Just look at this clip below. It is an innocuous "picks" segment on CBS College Sports. Two experts pick BC and two pick VT. But you can tell that little to no thought went into these picks. The picks are based on perception and reputation. Even with our biases, most BC fans know more about our team than 90% of the CFB experts.

Just keep rooting for BC and ignore the talking heads for a while.

Time to get overly excited about BC Football news

As I tweeted when Syracuse won, BC controls its own destiny. Win out and we are in the ACC Championship. Win that and we have a pretty good argument for the Playoffs. Seems simple, right? If you are on social media, you will see lots of people are playing the "what if" game. Let's break it down and also look at other things on the table.

Beat Virginia Tech...
If BC wins this weekend and Clemson holds their own against Louisville, the BC-Clemson matchup would likely be a primetime game on an ESPN network and also have an outside chance as being the location for Gameday! It would be one of the few battles of ranked teams that weekend. It would be a chance to have an ACC location for Gameday and return to BC after a long absence. Gameday remains an incredible tool for selling the program and would be another validation of the season. It would also provide energy to the home atmosphere that has been lacking in the years since our last Gameday.

Then beat Clemson...
At 8-2 and having just knocked out an elite team, BC would probably get close to Top 10 in the rankings. There is still a lot of bottlenecking in the polls, but more teams will lose in the next two weeks and very few two-loss teams would have such a win. Beating Clemson would also give BC the head-to-head tiebreaker in the division standings.

Win out the regular season...
Once you've knocked off Clemson and won in Blacksburg, you've done the hard part. BC would be a heavy favorite over FSU. Then it is Syracuse at home Thanksgiving Weekend with everything on the line. What could go wrong there?

Win the ACC Championship...
If BC really does run the table, we would also be a favorite in the ACC Championship. Win that and we are guaranteed a major bowl -- the first since Flutie. But at this point, we would also be in the playoff discussion. If you are following the Playoff release and the computer projections, you will see BC is in the low 20s. That basically means it could happen, but would be the longest of long shots. Because of the human element, I don't think a two-loss BC team would ever be included. But there is only one way to find out!

Now the first step is winning this weekend.

BC returns to the rankings

When BC was ranked earlier in the season, things did not go well. Purdue slapped them around and even Addazio would admit they were looking ahead and lost focus. Well, the coach has a chance to fix that as BC is ranked again.

As for specifics, BC is in the Coaches 25 Poll and 24 in the AP Poll. Let's hope the stay in the rankings last longer than Addazio's last time and that this time around the team keep moving up.

Watch the Crowthers in the BC locker room after the game

Special nite in Alumni Stadium honoring #BCMan & AMERICAN hero #WellesCrowther Magic was in the air! #Selfless&Fearless pic.twitter.com/IopLyveW3J

— Coach Brian White (@coachBwhiteBC) October 27, 2018

Also check out this clip where Blackledge and McDonough talk about how unique and special BC is.

This place is special. #WeAreBC pic.twitter.com/1s6AwBXQpG

— BC Football (@BCFootball) October 27, 2018

Finally Addazio addressed the importance of the Welles' example during his post game presser.

BC cruises past 'Canes

BC won by 13 and it wasn't even that close. In another special Red Bandanna night, BC beat Miami to improve to 6-2. With the win, BC is bowl-eligible and in position for Addazio's best season at BC. The Oline and Dillon carried the day and the Defense played well. There is no reason BC cannot get hot again. Things seem to be coming together.

(Periscope crashed so it is broken into two parts.)

Post-game Periscope PART 1

Post game Periscope: Miami https://t.co/uS9ymet03Y

— Bill Maloney (@bcatleagle) October 27, 2018

Post-game Periscope PART 2

Post game Periscope Part 2 https://t.co/YixVarovBo

— Bill Maloney (@bcatleagle) October 27, 2018

In-game comments post: Miami

It seems like every game with Addazio is a litmus test for his tenure. I guess this critical game is no different. We are BC!

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter.

Friday picks

Last week was my best of the season. Now I am trusting Purdue and a few others to stay hot.

Picks in bold

Purdue+1 at Michigan State

Wisconsin-5 at Northwestern

Wake Forest+2.5 at Louisville

UMass-5 at UConn

Arizona State+3.5 at USC

Duke-3 at Pitt

UNLV+3 at San Jose State

Washington State+3 at Stanford

Texas A&M+1.5 at Mississippi State

NC State-2 at Syracuse

Last week I was 7-3. I am 41-40-1 on the season.

BC-Miami preview

The week off seemed longer than usual. There is a rhythm to the season and not playing -- especially when the rest of college football is playing -- feels like something is missing. I hope Addazio used the time well as this game begins an important stretch. If BC is going to be anything beyond 7-6 again, they need wins like this.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) PART I
Each year it seems the criticism of the Red Bandana game grows. It is no longer strictly tied to the home game near September 11 and is now part of one of our premiere games and usually nationally televised. I understand the criticism and think the line between honoring and exploiting is very thin. However, BC has shown tremendous respect for the Crowther family and based on my experience, usually consults them on matters like this. If the Crowther family is ok with a night game in October, then who are we to complain?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) PART II
I doubt it will happen, but I hope with the new TV network and the punitive exit fees, the ACC reconsiders its divisions. The fact that BC only plays Miami a few times a decade is a missed opportunity. I am all for a division of former Big East schools and a division of traditional ACC schools and think most fanbases would agree. The only challenge would be which traditional ACC school gets put in with the former Big Easters to keep the divisions balanced. I usually advocate Virginia, but arguments could be made for Florida State or Georgia Tech. I know the politics of it all make it highly unlikely, but I hope someone at least raises the issue.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get the jet sweeps working again. I don't know why BC has gone away from it recently (Smith's health?), but they need to bring them back. Ideally for a big play, but also just to keep the 'Canes D honest. 
2. Contain whoever Miami has at QB. When Miami is doing well, they are making big gains off of broken plays and scrambles. The BC D can't let that happen.
3. Win on the OLine. Miami's D is still very formidable. BC needs to win upfront to keep the offense on track.

Gambling Notes
-- Miami leads the series 24-5
-- The road team has won the last two
-- Miami is 8-3 at Alumni
The current line is BC+3.5

Factoid
Mark Richt is 0-1 vs BC

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-FSU is big. If we want to win the division (seriously) then we need some help and someone has to give Clemson a loss.

I hope to see...
Another punt block. At this point Miami will be prepared, but the occasional block is the only hyper-aggressive thing Addazio does. Let's take another gamble this week.

BC is in trouble if...
They can't cover the RBs. Our linebackers have struggled in pass coverage so far this year. Look for Miami to keep it simple and try to hit short, easy passes out of the backfield. Our coverage and tackling has to be great.

Overall
I like this matchup for BC. Beyond the emotion, I think Miami's offense has issues and will have trouble scoring. As long as we don't help them out with by allowing a blocked punt or Pick 6, we should win a grind it out type of game.
Final Score: BC 28, Miami 21

Christian, Bowman, Chatman talk about the season

The guys are down in North Carolina for the ACC Media Days. Here is their opening press conference. Nothing ground breaking but it seems like Christian and the players are very optimistic about the upcoming season.

Good news on Dillon

Addazio said that Dillon looked good in practice and is on schedule to play against Miami. I think BC can win without Dillon, but having him play is a huge asset for BC. Even if he is not 100%, his presence will force Miami to key on him and open up other plays for BC on Offense.

There may be a concern among some about Dillon coming back too fast. I am not worried. We need this game and the win. 

Gametime set for Virginia Tech

The ACC announced the Virginia Tech game will be a 3:45 start in Blacksburg. It will be an ACC game, but might not have the same affiliates the game usually does. Because most of the bye weeks are over, things get a little more complicated for ACC scheduling in November. All teams are playing and there are fewer traditional time slots available, so the second Raycom game comes into play.

I don't mind. I am always glad when we avoid a night game in Blacksburg.

Weekend wrap up

Women's Soccer fell to Duke 2-1. It was their first time losing consecutive games this season. They are now 5th in the ACC.

Here is more on BC's newest basketball recruit Calvin Felder.

It is early, but it should be noted that Men's Hockey lost to Quinnipiac. That left them at 0-3. The worst start to a season since before WWII and clearly the slowest start of the season since York took over.

Friday picks

Another positive week. Keep it rolling with these picks.

Picks in Bold

Auburn-4 at Ole Miss

Cincinnati+3.5 at Temple

FAU-2.5 at Marshall

Akron-5 at Kent State

Virginia+7 at Duke

Minnesota+4.5 at Nebraska

Coastal Carolina+3 at UMass

Mississippi St+7 at LSU

Oregon+3 at Washington State

North Texas+1 at UAB

Last week I was 6-4 again. I am 34-37-1 on the season.

Waiting on Felder news

One of BC's prime targets for the 2019 class is making a big show of his recruitment.

Blessed to say that I will be making my college decision this week, it will be between my final 5 of Murray st, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and LSU.🙏🏾 pic.twitter.com/qeh5gl3qga

— Calvin Felder®🅱️ (@C1__BG) October 16, 2018

At one point on Thursday, 247 actually had Felder committing to BC. They later retracted it, but they obviously felt pretty good about his intentions.

Felder is 6'7 and is considered a wing. He's a South Carolina native.

Miami using off week to shake things up

Mark Richt named old starter and recent backup Malik Rosier the starter for the BC game. He also said that former backup turned starter turned demoted QB Kosi Perry will also play. If this is all confusing to you, great. It is clearly confusing to Miami.

The only downside for BC in all of this is having to prepare for two different QBs. But neither should be a real problem since they are both very mistake prone and inaccurate. The trouble comes when they run. Miami's D is also pretty good.

What I like about Richt's issues is that BC's night game and rowdy crowd to honor Welles Crowther will only add to the tension on the Miami sidelines. If either QB struggles, look for a quick hook. If both struggle, who knows what will happen.

Our D has issues. But if they can create pressure on the Miami QBs, this will get interesting.

How will new transfer rules impact BC?

A major rule quietly changed the landscape of college football this week. Starting October 15, football players are allowed to transfer without a release from their current school. That player can still play for his current team and still be in the National Transfer database, so that the whole college football world knows who is available and a coach can recruit a player during the season. For example, if say Hamp Cheevers wanted to put his name out there, Alabama could contact him tomorrow and he could still play for BC next week. Because the rule is brand new and transfers are still risky and political, there wasn't a flood of database listings this week (see screenshot below). However, that will probably change. But how will this impact BC?

A look at the new NCAA Transfer Portal, where coaches can track free agents, I mean, transfers pic.twitter.com/rz2CA5DRr3

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 16, 2018

In Addizio's first four years, he had multiple grad transfers and they were helpful to the transition and rebuilding. Now that the roster is his, there are no significant transfers playing for BC. But I think something like this and the updated database might be a good tool for Addazio. As much as the Alabamas of the world will try to grab other team's players, Addazio proved pretty adapt at finding guys buried on the depth chart at other places who could play at BC. The more access and information to that talent, the better for BC. I also think BC sells well to transfers. If they've already been to a football factory, they've seen all the fancy facilities. A more mature recruit would see what BC is selling and find that more appealing.

The database is not open to the public, but I imagine that it is being monitored closely and any BC-related news will be now as soon as it happens.

Let's check in on what the computers think

With  BC stopping the bleeding and upsets occuring throughout college football, it is time to look at BC's ESPN FPI. As you probably remember, ESPN's systems loved BC after the fast start. At one point we were a favorite in all remaining games aside from Clemson.

With the win over Louisville, BC is 42 in ESPN's system (right behind a resurgent Purdue). As for upcoming games, BC is only considered a favorite in the last two. Miami has a slight edge, VT's larger and Clemson looks to remain a heavy favorite.

Of course none of this really matters. The rankings don't play the games, the players do. And a healthy Dillon would mean BC can win any game left on the schedule.

Checking in on Bowl projections

With the win, BC is one step closer to another bowl game. But where will we go? Here is what the experts are saying:

CBS -- The Sun Bowl vs Stanford.
In my opinion, this would be a pretty good solution. A lower tier, yet respectable bowl plus an interesting opponent.

SB Nation -- Military Bowl vs Cincinnati
This is not exciting, but it is very plausible. The only upside is that BC fans could go to the game.

ESPN -- The Sun Bowl vs either USC or Utah
I am glad to see the consensus around the Sun Bowl. Like last year with the Pinstripe, it probably means the Bowl, BC and the ACC are already talking it through.

New uniforms, same issues as BC defeats Louisville

In this case, the final score doesn't tell the whole story. For most of the game, BC was either in a hole or letting Louisville hang around based on BC's own miscues and mistakes. But in the end, talent and focus prevailed. I keep hoping for a point when things get cleaned up, but maybe this team is just talented but sloppy. The win -- and the uniforms -- were nice. BC is positioned well for the second half of the season. 

I will have more Sunday and grades later in the week. 

In-game comments post: Louisville

BC is a heavy favorite. Now let's play like it.

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Friday picks

Another week, another group of winners. I'm going with a lot of road teams again.


Picks in bold.

Toledo-3 at Eastern Michigan

Nebraska+4 at Northwestern

Iowa-5.5 at Indiana

Duke+2.5 at Georgia Tech

Texas A&M-2.5 at South Carolina

Washington-3 at Oregon

UCF-5 at Memphis

Virginia Tech-6 at North Carolina

Miami-6.5 at Virginia

Colorado+7 at USC

Last week I was 6-4 again. I am 28-33-1 on the season.

BC-Louisville preview

Last year's Louisville game was a turning point. The offense exploded with Dillon and became an exciting team in the second half of the season. Although the problems are different, BC could use another turnaround this week. Louisville is also desperate after getting run over by Georgia Tech. This is probably a must win for both teams.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Since we are playing Louisville, it is a good time to mention the college basketball world is glued to the bribery trial going on in New York. Louisville has been in the spotlight for the issue, but plenty of other major and mid-major programs are involved. I am for paying the players, so hopefully this will lead to that. BC has not been mentioned yet with any of these bag men, but former BC assistant Preston Murphy has been. I don't know how I will feel if (or when) it is revealed that BC was part of this mess too.

Three Simple Keys
1. Use Brown in the run game. It will work...especially if Dillon returns. No one respects it nor expects it. I know the injury risk is real, but having him keep it three or four times on the zone read will open up plays all over the field. 
2. Keep running. I know I am the only BC blogger or fan advocating for more runs, but this week it will work. Even if Louisville made some adjustments from last week, they are still not a good run D. BC needs to pound it and not look back.
3. Better tackling. I've been harping on this all season. I don't know what the problem is, but it has got to get better soon.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 15-27 in ACC play
-- Louisville is 3-2 at Alumni

-- Addazio is 15-15 following a loss while at BC

The current line is BC-13.5

Factoid
This is the first time that BC has been favored in this matchup since Louisville joined the ACC.

Scoreboard Watching
Future opponent Miami heads to UVA this weekend. When the schedule came out, I thought a Friday night game against the Canes might be our chance to make a statement. But right now Miami looks pretty good. They will be favored vs BC. Let's see how they do against Virginia.

I hope to see...
Game changing plays in Special Teams. How exciting was the punt block last week? I know it can be a crap shoot, but I don't know why we've never gone all in on Special Teams like say Virginia Tech. It would seem to be an area where we could make a difference.

BC is in trouble if...
The offense is stagnant again. We can't have another 3-point half.

Overall
Does it all come down to Dillon? I don't think so. I think there was enough positives for the offense in the second half of the NC State game for BC to move the ball and score. I think they will overpower Louisville and it will be a comfortable and encouraging win.
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

Second viewing thoughts and grades: NC State

Watching this loss back was frustrating but not for the reasons you might think. There were bad calls. There were also moments when Dillon might have made a difference. But ultimately it was frustating to see so many missed opportunities. BC could have and probably should have won that game even without Dillon. NC State is good but didn't play their best. They handed us the game and we didn't take it.

Offense: C+

Brown's passing wasn't great but it probably wasn't as bad as it felt live. He needs to hit the deep balls but there were also some drops. My bigger concern is he doesn't always anticipate the pressure or get rid of the ball before a terrible play. I do like the runs though. I don't know if he is getting more aggressive or getting healthy or both, but being just a slight running threat opens things up.

Glines played well. He ran hard and looked good catching passes. The fumble wasn't his fault. Levy didn't touch it much.

Smith's drops were rough. Catching even one of those might change the game. Sweeney had a nice catch but still needs to work on helping in pass protection. White played well. Walker also had some nice catches when he was open and in traffic.

The Oline was a big part of the challenge in the first half. They were making mistakes, getting run over and not opening up holes. Once NC State stopped loading up on the line things got a bit better. Petrula and Monteiro had some issues pass blocking. Schmal and Baker looked good.

I don't mind being pass first. However, I can't believe that BC sticks with the same plays over and over when they are not executing. Once they brought back the zone read, the run game did improve. But that took until the second half. I also don't know why we didn't use more play action or get Brown out of the pocket more. If he were a great and accurate pocket passer, I would understand. But right now it feels like we don't play to his strengths.

Defense: B-

Allen was awesome. Without him the D would be a total mess. I am surprised Ray is not having a bigger year. Smith was better. Karafa was ok. Glad to Berry get some playing time.

The LBs are really a problem right now. Lots of missed tackles and not much help on the run. McDuffie was pretty active but not with game changing plays. Bletzer was probably the highlight for the whole unit. I am guessing Lamot and Strachan are still not 100%. Richardson's targeting was dumb. He should have known better.

Jones got thrown in the fire and played well. At least better than the guy he was replacing. Torres was fine. Harris missed some tackles but was ok. Palmer had some good moments but his help was too late on one of NC State's big TDs. Denis was forced to play out of position and was pretty good.

I don't think the D was aggressive enough. Finley clearly showed that he could pick us apart. How were we not ready with something to disrupt him early? The lack of pressure and pass rush was too little too late.

Special Teams: A

After being such an issue for most of the year, Special Teams delivered. NC State helped a bit with some mistakes, but our coverage team and punt block team were aggressive and did their part.

Walker had some nice returns.

The kicking and punting was fine.

Overall: C

I'm right in the middle. As reassuring as the near comeback was, the huge hole was beyond frustrating. Did BC makes some adjustments in the second half? Yes. And that isn't always the case with Addazio's guys. I also think he managed the clock and onsides as well as possible. I even understood the early attempt at the 2-point conversion. And on the meltdown scale, I didn't find the fit after the fumble terrible. Is cutting the lead and making it close an improvement over our last road debacle? I guess. But it is still not good enough.

Throwbacks are back, now let us make the perfect uniform

As rumored, BC is breaking out the retro-'80s uniforms for the Louisville game. Before I nitpick a little, let me say that I love when they do this and I love the throwback look. We should do a throwback uniform once a season. However, this uniform is also a reminder of what still needs to be done. Here is my latest on how BC should plan their uniforms annually.

1. Always have a lone maroon stripe on the helmet. I know this is a relatively new aspect of BC Football (about 27 years), but I like the stripe. It differentiates us from other solid gold helmets and has been our thing long enough that it should be permanent.
2. Have one red bandana inspired uniform per year. This is another fairly new tradition, but a good one. Don't overuse it and make it the only time we wear white pants.
3. Have one "crazy" uniform look per year. I don't love this but recruits do. So let Under Armour go crazy. Put wings on the helmets. Go with wacky color schemes. Do whatever. But only do it once per year. Beyond a weird helmet or pattern, this is also the time where BC could experiment with long suggested ideas like the all SuperFan Yellow uniforms or even gray like basketball used this year.
4. Have one color of gold. This is my main complaint about the retro uniforms this weekend. The pants, the helmet and the shoulder stripes all look like different shades of gold. I prefer metallic gold to mustard, but BC needs to just pick one.
5. Create a new logo that is inspired by the classic BC logo. This retro logo is pretty darn close to what BC should wear. And based on fan reaction this is would be a popular move.
6. Regular home uniforms should look close to the early '90s look. Gold pants with solid maroon stripe. Maroon top with numbers on shoulders and Eagle or BC logo on the sleeve.
7. Road uniforms should be white jersey with maroon pants. Think of the mid-TOB era. No more all-white road uniforms.

🚨 Check out the new look for Homecoming against Louisville ‼️

🔥🔥🔥https://t.co/wNViUZt8By#WeAreBC🦅 pic.twitter.com/5v5E9aIbi3

— BC Football (@BCFootball) October 9, 2018